264
FXUS01 KWBC 082000
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
359 PM EDT THU MAY 08 2025
VALID 00Z FRI MAY 09 2025 - 00Z SUN MAY 11 2025
...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN AND
SOUTHERN U.S FRIDAY....
...THREAT FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED FLASH FLOODING FOR PORTIONS OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTH TEXAS WITH A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING, THEN AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR THE THE NORTHEAST AND GULF
STATES/SOUTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...
...TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN
AND SOUTHERN U.S. WHILE MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE EXPAND ACROSS THE
NORTH-CENTRAL AND WESTERN U.S....
A SLOW MOVING FRONT, FROM THE NORTHEAST TRAILING TROUGH THE
EASTERN STATES AND WESTWARD ACROSS THE GULF STATES AND TEXAS, WILL
BE THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS
MOIST GULF RETURN FLOW PERSISTS. SOME OF THESE STORMS HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE RAINFALL RATES OF 0.5 INCH/HOUR OR GREATER
GIVEN THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND WITH THE SLOW MOTION
EXPECTED, THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED THREAT FOR ISOLATED INSTANCES
OF FLASH FLOODING. WPC HAS A BROAD MARGINAL RISK TODAY THAT COVERS
MUCH OF THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY AS WELL SOUTHERN TEXAS
AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. HIGHER MOISTURE IN AN AIRMASS
UNDISTURBED BY THE PREVIOUS DAYS CONVECTION OVER SOUTH TEXAS WILL
ALSO LEAD TO WIDESPREAD STORMS WITH A LOCALLY HIGHER THREAT FOR
HEAVIER DOWNPOURS AND SCATTERED FLASH FLOODING, WITH A SLIGHT RISK
IN EFFECT. IN ADDITION, A COUPLE AREAS OF SEVERE WEATHER ARE
EXPECTED. FIRST, LOCALLY STRONGER WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH ONE OF THE
UPPER-LEVEL WAVES AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO A CLUSTER OF
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY EAST THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS INTRODUCED
A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER (LEVEL 2/5) MAINLY FOR THE THREAT
OF VERY LARGE HAIL ALONG WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. SECOND, AN
UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSING OVER THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY/SOUTH
TEXAS WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS HERE
AS WELL, WITH ANOTHER SLIGHT RISK IN PLACE FOR ADDITIONAL
INSTANCES OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
THE PROGRESSION OF THIS FRONT WILL BE SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH THE LEADING LOW AS IT ADVANCES NORTH/NORTHEAST NEAR THE COAST
HOWEVER THE MOVEMENT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WILL BE SLOW. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN AN ELEVATED THREAT FOR ISOLATED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING
FOR THE GULF/SOUTHEAST AND FOR THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
ELSEWHERE, LINGERING MOISTURE ALONG THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES
AND THE ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS WILL LEAD TO SOME SCATTERED STORMS
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ACCOMPANYING
SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM PASSING FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/HIGH
PLAINS TODAY TO THE UPPER MIDWEST FRIDAY WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECT ACROSS THE
PLAINS, MIDWEST AND THE GREAT BASIN/WEST COAST.
THE CONSOLIDATING UPPER-TROUGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN/SOUTHERN
U.S. WHILE A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN/NORTHERN U.S. WILL LEAD
TO SOME SIGNIFICANT VARIATIONS IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. UNDER THE TROUGHING, BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
FELT ACROSS MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST SOUTHWEST THROUGH
THE OHIO/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND FOR THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PLAINS. DAILY MAXIMUMS IN THE 50S AND 60S WILL BE COMMON FOR MORE
NORTHERN LOCATIONS WITH 60S AND 70S FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
SOUTHWARDS. CONDITIONS ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL BE A BIT CLOSER
TO AVERAGE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT, WITH HIGHS IN THE
60S AND 70S FOR THE MID-ATLANTIC AND 70S AND 80S INTO THE
SOUTHEAST. IN CONTRAST, WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL
EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST AND
INTERIOR WEST/WEST COAST. FORECAST HIGHS ARE GENERALLY IN THE 70S
AND 80S WITH 90S IN THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA VALLEYS AND LOW 100S
INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
CAMPBELL/PUTNAM
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
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