615
FXUS01 KWBC 091902
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
301 PM EDT FRI MAY 09 2025
VALID 00Z SAT MAY 10 2025 - 00Z MON MAY 12 2025
...SOAKING RAINFALL ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WILL PERSIST IN PARTS OF
NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY...
...EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND SEVERE WEATHER TO BE THE FOCUS FOR THE
WEEKEND FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE SOUTHEAST...
...RECORD WARMTH EXPECTED IN PARTS OF THE WEST & NORTHERN PLAINS
TODAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND...
A PAIR OF SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEMS ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR PROLONGED
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST AND THE
NORTHEAST. STARTING IN THE NORTHEAST, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO CARRY A PLUME OF RICH MOISTURE ALOFT INTO THE REGION
AS IT TRACKS THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE ON SATURDAY. THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL WILL BE FOUND FROM THE CATSKILLS ON EAST ACROSS MUCH OF
NEW ENGLAND. THE NORTHEAST WILL GRADUALLY DRY OUT THROUGHOUT THE
DAY SATURDAY WITH DOWNEAST MAINE SEEING THE LAST BANDS OF SHOWERS
FINALLY DEPART BY THE EVENING. THE LATEST FORECAST CALLS FOR AN
ADDITIONAL 1-2 INCHES OF RAINFALL ACROSS MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND WITH
LOCALIZED TOTALS OVER 2 INCHES POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY. WITH
MUCH OF THE REGION SPORTING SATURATED AND SENSITIVE SOILS, IT IS
POSSIBLE FOR INSTANCES LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING AND MINOR TO
ISOLATED MODERATE RIVER FLOODING THROUGH SATURDAY. WPC HAS ISSUED
A PAIR OF MARGINAL RISKS BOTH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY (THREAT LEVEL
1/4) TO HIGHLIGHT THE FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL THAT WILL MOST
LIKELY BE CONFINED TO POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AND URBANIZED
COMMUNITIES.
FARTHER SOUTH, ANOTHER DAWDLING STORM SYSTEM IS SET TO PRODUCE
ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL DIRECT COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF GULF
MOISTURE NORTHWARD WHILE A STATIONARY FRONT ALSO ACTS AS A TRIGGER
FOR THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. THROUGH TONIGHT, WPC HAS AN EXPANSIVE
MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THAT STRETCHES FROM THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TO AS FAR EAST AS THE SOUTHEAST COAST. IN
ADDITION TO THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL, THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER (SPC) ISSUED A PAIR OF SLIGHT RISKS (THREAT LEVEL 2/5)
ALONG FLORIDA'S SPACE COAST AND IN THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS.
SPC'S MARGINAL RISKS ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF THE SAME AREAS OF THE
SOUTHEAST AS WPC'S MARGINAL RISK WITH SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS, LARGE HAIL, AND TORNADOES. BY SATURDAY,
THE UPPER LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THE ONSLAUGHT OF HEAVY RAIN MEANDERS
EASTWARD SLIGHTLY AS THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW LIFTS NORTHWARD,
PLACING ALABAMA, THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE, AND MUCH OF SOUTHERN
GEORGIA IN THE BEST POSITION TO RECEIVE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL.
THROUGH SUNDAY, THE RAINFALL FORECAST CALLS FOR AS MUCH AS 2-5
INCHES OF RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST WITH THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA HAVING THE BEST CHANCES FOR
WITNESSING THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS. FLASH FLOODING, AS WELL AS SOME
CASES OF RIVER AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING, ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. PLEASE VISIT WPC'S MEDIUM RANGE
DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY ONWARD.
THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE LOWER 48 IS MAKING FOR DRAMATIC
TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES THAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
WITH THE PAIR OF STORM SYSTEMS CAUSING WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER FOR
MUCH OF THE COASTAL AREAS AND THEIR ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTS
DIRECTING COOLER TEMPS INTO THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN U.S.,
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FROM THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF
WESTERN TEXAS ALL THE WAY TO THE EAST COAST. TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES
WILL LARGELY BE 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH SOME PARTS OF THE
NORTHEAST SEEING DEPARTURES AS COOL AS 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN
SOME CASES. EARLY MORNING FROST IS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY FROM THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. MEANWHILE, A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PARK ITSELF OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN
U.S. THAT WILL FOSTER VERY WARM TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY-TO-MID MAY,
MAKING FOR A QUITE SUMMER-LIKE MOTHER'S DAY WEEKEND. SOME RECORD
WARMTH IS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
TO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. SOME PARTS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA MAY
SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES REACH TRIPLE DIGITS, WHILE MORNING LOWS MAY
ALSO CHALLENGE RECORD WARM LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES THROUGHOUT THE WEST ARE LIKELY TO RANGE
BETWEEN 15-25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND WILL POTENTIALLY APPROACH
30 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY SUNDAY. NWS'S
HEATRISK DOES DEPICT MODERATE TO SCATTERED INSTANCES OF MAJOR HEAT
POTENTIAL IN THE SOUTHEAST ON SATURDAY, WITH MODERATE HEAT IMPACTS
SHOWING UP IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEATRISK/ FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE NWS
HEATRISK PRODUCTS.
SNELL/MULLINAX
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
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