686
FXUS01 KWBC 100728
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
327 AM EDT SAT MAY 10 2025
VALID 12Z SAT MAY 10 2025 - 12Z MON MAY 12 2025
...EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND SEVERE WEATHER TO BE THE FOCUS FOR THE
WEEKEND FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE SOUTHEAST...
...ANOTHER DAY OF HEAVY RAIN FOR PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND TODAY;
SHOWERS & THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHWEST, BUT DRIER IN THE
SOUTHWEST, MIDWEST, GREAT LAKES, AND MID-ATLANTIC...
...RECORD WARMTH EXPECTED IN PARTS OF THE WEST & NORTHERN PLAINS
THIS WEEKEND...
A DAWDLING STORM SYSTEM ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL GENERATE ROUNDS
OF HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW MEANDERING OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH WILL DIRECT COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD WHILE
A STATIONARY FRONT ALSO ACTS AS A TRIGGER FOR THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY. WPC HAS AN EXPANSIVE MARGINAL RISK (THREAT LEVEL 1/4) FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THAT STRETCHES FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY TO AS FAR EAST AS THE SOUTHEAST COAST EACH DAY THIS
WEEKEND. THE AREA MOST AT-RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING TODAY IS ALONG
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WHERE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL RATES ARE LIKELY
TO ENSUE OVER SOILS THAT ARE BECOMING INCREASINGLY SATURATED. WPC
HAS HOISTED A SLIGHT RISK (THREAT LEVEL 2/4) FOR PARTS OF THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEAST ALABAMA. BY SUNDAY, THE UPPER LOW
REMAINS STATIONARY OVER LOUISIANA WHILE PUMPING MORE HEAVY
RAINFALL INTO THE SOUTHEAST. WPC HAS A LARGER SLIGHT RISK AREA FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THAT ENCOMPASSES MOST OF NORTHERN FLORIDA, MUCH
OF GEORGIA, AND EVEN INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTH CAROLINA. THERE IS
ALSO A SEVERE COMPONENT TO THE FORECAST AS WELL WITH THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER (SPC) POSTING MARGINAL RISKS FROM THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE GEORGIA COAST THIS
WEEKEND. THE STORM FINALLY BEGINS ITS SLOW PROGRESSION EAST ON
MONDAY, BUT THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THREAT WILL EXTEND AS FAR NORTH
AS THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC AND AS FAR SOUTH AS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. THE SLOW PROGRESS OF THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL KEEP HEAVY
RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST INTO TUESDAY ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC.
PLEASE VISIT WPC'S MEDIUM RANGE DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE
FORECAST FOR TUESDAY ONWARD.
ELSEWHERE, THE UPPER LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL LATE
THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY WILL MAKE ITS EXIT OFF THE NORTHEAST
COAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT. UNTIL THEN, PERIODS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING BEFORE TAPERING OFF
SATURDAY EVENING. REGARDING OTHER AREAS OF ACTIVE WEATHER, A
TROUGHING PATTERN OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL DIRECT A SERIES
OF DISTURBANCES AT THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS THIS
WEEKEND. SPC ISSUED MARGINAL RISKS FOR THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL IN THESE REGIONS BOTH
TODAY AND SUNDAY. THE PATTERN BECOMES INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY WITH LINGERING PERIODS OF RAIN AND
HIGH ELEVATION MOUNTAIN SNOW ON MONDAY. SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE WET
CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND IN THE SOUTHEAST AND NORTHWEST IS A DRY
STRETCH OF WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST, MIDWEST, GREAT LAKES
AND MID-ATLANTIC.
THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE LOWER 48 IS MAKING FOR SIGNIFICANT
TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES THAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THANKS TO THE PAIR OF STORM SYSTEMS CAUSING EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
FOR MUCH OF THE COASTAL AREAS AND THEIR ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTS
DIRECTING COOLER TEMPS INTO THE SOUTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN U.S.,
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FROM THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF
WESTERN TEXAS ALL THE WAY TO THE CAROLINAS. TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES
WILL LARGELY BE 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE
SOUTH AND NEW ENGLAND. EARLY MORNING FROST IS ALSO POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING FROM THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
MEANWHILE, A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PARK ITSELF OVER THE
WESTERN AND NORTHERN U.S. THAT WILL FOSTER VERY WARM TEMPERATURES
FOR MID-MAY, MAKING MOTHER'S DAY WEEKEND FEEL MORE LIKE AN EARLY
KICK-OFF TO SUMMER IN SOME LOCATIONS. RECORD WARMTH IS FORECAST
TODAY FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE GREAT BASIN TO THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS. SOME PARTS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA MAY SEE HIGH
TEMPERATURES REACH TRIPLE DIGITS, WHILE MORNING LOWS MAY ALSO
CHALLENGE RECORD WARM LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. BY SUNDAY, THE
RECORD HEAT MOVES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH MANY 90+ DEGREE
READINGS EXPECTED IN THE DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA. TEMPERATURE
ANOMALIES THROUGHOUT THE WEST ARE LIKELY TO RANGE BETWEEN 15-25
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND WILL POTENTIALLY APPROACH 30 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY SUNDAY. NWS'S HEATRISK DOES
DEPICT MODERATE TO SCATTERED INSTANCES OF MAJOR HEAT POTENTIAL IN
THE SOUTHWEST ON THIS WEEKEND, AS WELL AS UP IN THE NORTHERN
PLAINS BY SUNDAY. PLEASE VISIT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEATRISK/ FOR
MORE INFORMATION ON THE NWS HEATRISK PRODUCTS.
MULLINAX
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page