168
FXUS01 KWBC 101958
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
357 PM EDT SAT MAY 10 2025
VALID 00Z SUN MAY 11 2025 - 00Z TUE MAY 13 2025
...EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND SEVERE WEATHER FOCUSING THROUGHOUT THE
SOUTHEAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
...RECORD WARMTH EXPECTED IN PARTS OF THE WEST & NORTHERN PLAINS
THIS WEEKEND...
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO IMPACT THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW
MEANDERING OVER THE DEEP SOUTH WILL DIRECT COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF GULF
MOISTURE NORTHWARD WHILE A STATIONARY FRONT ALSO ACTS AS A TRIGGER
FOR THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. WPC HAS AN EXPANSIVE MARGINAL RISK
(THREAT LEVEL 1/4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THAT STRETCHES FROM THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TO AS FAR EAST AS THE SOUTHEAST
COAST THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING; SLIGHT RISK (THREAT LEVEL 2/4) FRO
FLORIDA PANHANDLE/SOUTHEAST ALABAMA TODAY AND EXPANDING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGIONS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER (SPC) HAS HIGHLIGHTED A MARGINAL RISK FROM
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TO THE GEORGIA COAST THIS WEEKEND WITH A
SLIGHT RISK (THREAT LEVEL 2/5) FOR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND GEORGIA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
PLEASE VISIT WPC'S MEDIUM RANGE DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE
FORECAST FOR TUESDAY ONWARD. FURTHER NORTH, LINGERING RAIN ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST WILL TAPER OVER TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OUT
OF THE REGION.
A TROUGHING PATTERN OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL DIRECT A
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES AT THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS
THIS WEEKEND. PORTIONS OF THE WEST AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS HAVE
BEEN IDENTIFIED BY SPC TO HAVE A MARGINAL RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL IN THESE
REGIONS THROUGH SUNDAY. THE PATTERN BECOMES INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY WITH LINGERING PERIODS OF
RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION MOUNTAIN SNOW ON MONDAY. SANDWICHED
BETWEEN THE WET CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND IN THE SOUTHEAST AND
NORTHWEST IS A DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST,
MIDWEST, GREAT LAKES AND MID-ATLANTIC.
THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER IS CONTRIBUTING TO PERSISTENT COOLER
TEMPERATURES THAN SEASONAL NORMAL FOR MAY FOR SOUTHERN AND
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY. DAILY TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL FROM THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF WESTERN TEXAS ALL THE WAY TO
THE CAROLINAS AND THE NORTHEAST, AVERAGING 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER.
EARLY MORNING FROST IS ALSO POSSIBLE THIS MORNING FROM THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. IN CONTRAST, RIDGING OVER
THE WEST AND NORTHERN STATES WILL FAVOR VERY WARM TEMPERATURES FOR
MID-MAY, MAKING MOTHER'S DAY WEEKEND FEEL MORE LIKE AN EARLY
KICK-OFF TO SUMMER IN SOME LOCATIONS. RECORD WARMTH IS FORECAST
TODAY FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE GREAT BASIN TO THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS. SOME PARTS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA MAY SEE HIGH
TEMPERATURES REACH TRIPLE DIGITS, WHILE MORNING LOWS MAY ALSO
CHALLENGE RECORD WARM LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. BY SUNDAY, THE
RECORD HEAT MOVES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH MANY 90+ DEGREE
READINGS EXPECTED IN THE DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA. TEMPERATURE
ANOMALIES THROUGHOUT THE WEST ARE LIKELY TO RANGE BETWEEN 15-25
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND WILL POTENTIALLY APPROACH 30 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY SUNDAY. NWS'S HEATRISK DOES
DEPICT MODERATE TO SCATTERED INSTANCES OF MAJOR HEAT POTENTIAL IN
THE SOUTHWEST ON THIS WEEKEND, AS WELL AS UP IN THE NORTHERN
PLAINS BY SUNDAY. PLEASE VISIT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEATRISK/ FOR
MORE INFORMATION ON THE NWS HEATRISK PRODUCTS.
CAMPBELL/MULLINAX
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page