490
FXUS01 KWBC 110703
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
303 AM EDT SUN MAY 11 2025
VALID 12Z SUN MAY 11 2025 - 12Z TUE MAY 13 2025
...EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND SEVERE WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE SOUTHEAST
TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC THIS WEEK...
...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST &
NORTHERN ROCKIES TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...
..RECORD WARMTH EXPECTED IN PARTS OF THE WEST & MIDWEST
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ENGULFING THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BEGIN TO MAKE ITS WAY
NORTH INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW MEANDERING OVER THE DEEP SOUTH CONTINUES TO DIRECT
COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD WHILE A STATIONARY
FRONT ALSO ACTS AS A TRIGGER FOR THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. WPC
MAINTAINS AN EXPANSIVE MARGINAL RISK (THREAT LEVEL 1/4) FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THAT STRETCHES FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY TO AS FAR EAST AS THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH TUESDAY.
TODAY, A SLIGHT RISK (THREAT LEVEL 2/4) INCLUDES AREAS FROM THE
CENTRAL MS/AL BORDER ON EAST TOR THE CAROLINA COAST. AS THE STORM
MOVES EAST ON MONDAY, SO WILL THE SLIGHT RISK AREA WHICH INCLUDES
AREAS AS FAR SOUTH AS SOUTH FLORIDA AND AS FAR NORTH AS CENTRAL
VIRGINIA. LOOK FOR THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THREAT TO PERSIST INTO
TUESDAY OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC, HIGHLIGHTED BY A SLIGHT RISK IN
PARTS OF VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA. IN TERMS OF SEVERE
WEATHER, THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER (SPC) HAS HIGHLIGHTED A
MARGINAL RISK FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TO THE GEORGIA COAST
TODAY. THE SEVERE THREAT ON MONDAY STRETCHES SOUTH INTO THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND AS FAR NORTH AS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.
A TROUGHING PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN U.S. WILL DIRECT A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES AT THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS THIS WEEKEND.
SPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (THREAT LEVEL 2/5) FOR TODAY FROM THE
SNAKE RIVER VALLEY OF EASTERN IDAHO THROUGH PARTS OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS OF NORTHERN WYOMING AND CENTRAL MONTANA.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN THE SLIGHT RISK POSE A THREAT FOR
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. THE PATTERN REMAINS UNSETTLED
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
HIGH ELEVATION MOUNTAIN SNOW ON MONDAY. A PASSING COLD FRONT WILL
INTRODUCE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AS FAR SOUTH AS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
BY MONDAY NIGHT. SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE WET CONDITIONS IN THE
SOUTHEAST AND NORTHWEST IS A MOSTLY DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER FOR THE
SOUTHWEST, MIDWEST, AND NORTHEAST.
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER IS CONTRIBUTING TO UNUSUALLY COOL
TEMPERATURES THAN NORMAL FOR MAY IN THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. DAILY
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FROM EASTERN TEXAS ALL THE WAY
TO THE CAROLINAS. LINGERING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN NORMAL IN NEW ENGLAND TODAY BEFORE
WARMING UP TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS ON MONDAY. EARLY MORNING FROST
IS ALSO POSSIBLE TODAY IN THE NORTHERN MOST PORTION OF MICHIGAN'S
MITTEN. IN CONTRAST, RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES AND MIDWEST WILL
FAVOR VERY WARM TEMPERATURES FOR MID-MAY, MAKING MOTHER'S DAY
WEEKEND FEEL MORE LIKE AN EARLY KICK-OFF TO SUMMER IN SOME
LOCATIONS. RECORD WARM MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TODAY IN
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA, THE GREAT BASIN, AND IN ISOLATED PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES VERSUS NORMAL WILL BE
FOUND IN THE UPPER MIDWEST WHERE WIDESPREAD RECORD WARMTH FOR
MID-MAY IS EXPECTED FROM THE DAKOTAS TO MINNESOTA THROUGH TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES IN THE MIDWEST ARE LIKELY TO RANGE BETWEEN
15-25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND WILL POTENTIALLY APPROACH 30
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THE DAKOTAS INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEK. NWS'S HEATRISK DOES DEPICT AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF MODERATE
HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS WITH SCATTERED AREAS OF MAJOR HEAT IMPACTS IN
PARTS OF NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA. RESIDENTS WHO ARE
SENSITIVE TO HEAT, ESPECIALLY THOSE WITHOUT EFFECTIVE COOLING
AND/OR ADEQUATE HYDRATION, SHOULD PLAN ACCORDINGLY FOR A STRETCH
OF STRESSFUL HEAT THAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK.
MULLINAX
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