432
FXUS01 KWBC 121856
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
255 PM EDT MON MAY 12 2025
VALID 00Z TUE MAY 13 2025 - 00Z THU MAY 15 2025
...A SLOW MOVING MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW TO BRING HEAVY RAIN AND
FLOODING POTENTIAL FROM SOUTHEAST FLORIDA, INTO THE SOUTHERN TO
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND THE MID-ATLANTIC...
...RECORD HEAT TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND DEVELOP
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...
...A STRONG COLD FRONT TO PRODUCE MUCH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
ACROSS LARGE PORTIONS OF THE WEST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
...ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREATS FOR PORTIONS OF THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/NORTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHWEST...
A WELL DEFINED CLOSED LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COASTAL REGION
WILL BE LIFTING SLOWLY NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SUPPORTING POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY
RAINS, ESPECIALLY ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION FROM
SOUTHEAST FLORIDA, NORTHWARD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC, SOUTHERN TO
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND LOWER GREAT LAKES, WHERE ABOVE AVERAGE
MOISTURE VALUES ARE EXPECTED. MUCH OF THESE REGIONS ARE CURRENTLY
EXPERIENCING MODERATE TO EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS, WITH THESE
RAINS POTENTIALLY BENEFICIAL. HOWEVER, THERE WILL ALSO BE THE
THREAT OF FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING, AS STORMS MAY BE SLOW
MOVING AND REPEAT OVER THE SAME AREA. THIS THREAT IS ESPECIALLY
SO ACROSS URBAN AREAS OF SOUTHEAST FLORIDA AND THE MID-ATLANTIC
AND ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF THE SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. FLOOD WATCHES ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT ACROSS
SOUTHEAST FLORIDA, CENTRAL ALABAMA, CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA AND
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL APPALACHIANS FROM WESTERN NORTH
CAROLINA, NORTHEAST THROUGH WESTERN VIRGINIA, EASTERN WEST
VIRGINIA AND FAR WESTERN MARYLAND, AFFECTING NEARLY 20 MILLION
PEOPLE. WHILE THE HEAVIEST RAINS WITH THIS SLOW MOVING SYSTEM
ARE EXPECTED ON IT EASTERN SIDE FROM SOUTHEAST FLORIDA, INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC, SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND LOWER GREAT
LAKES, WIDESPREAD SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO LIKELY FROM THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST, NORTH THROUGH THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS
AND INTO THE MID-WEST. MUCH OF THESE AREAS WILL SEE LIGHT TO
MODERATE TOTALS, WITH POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED HEAVY TOTALS, BUT NOT
AS WIDESPREAD AS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE SLOW MOVING MID TO
UPPER LEVEL LOW.
WHILE A STRONG SLOW MOVING MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW AFFECTS MUCH OF
THE EASTERN U.S. OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS, ANOTHER STRONG MID TO
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE PUSHING INLAND FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AND INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN/NORTHERN ROCKIES MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AND THEN INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY.
WIDESPREAD SCATTERED AREAS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIP TOTALS
POSSIBLE FROM THE NORTHERN SIERRA/NORTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO THE
NORTHERN GREAT BASIN/NORTHERN ROCKIES LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY FROM THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THE STRONG ASSOCIATED
SURFACE COLD FRONT WITH THIS MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS ALREADY
PRODUCING MUCH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES MONDAY FROM CENTRAL TO
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THESE MUCH BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT BASIN/NORTHERN ROCKIES ON
TUESDAY AND INTO THE SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL ROCKIES ON WEDNESDAY.
IN CONTRAST TO THE MUCH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES SPREADING
EASTWARD WITH TIME ACROSS THE WEST, MUCH ABOVE TO RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS LARGE SECTIONS OF THE PLAINS
INTO MID WEEK. ADDITIONAL RECORD HIGHS LIKELY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO MINNESOTA AND ALSO DEVELOPING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. ACROSS THE AREAS OF MUCH
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES, GUST WINDS, DRY CONDITIONS AND LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE ALSO EXPECTED AND WILL PRODUCE ELEVATED TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY
IN EFFECT ACROSS LARGE PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION AND OVER PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHWEST, AFFECTING OVER 10 MILLION PEOPLE.
ORAVEC
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