808
FXUS01 KWBC 130723
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
323 AM EDT TUE MAY 13 2025
VALID 12Z TUE MAY 13 2025 - 12Z THU MAY 15 2025
...A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW TO BRING HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING
POTENTIAL TO THE MID-ATLANTIC...
...A STRONG COLD FRONT TO PRODUCE MUCH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
ACROSS LARGE PORTIONS OF THE WEST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, AS WELL
AS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW...
...SUMMER-LIKE HEAT TO ENGULF MUCH OF THE HEARTLAND; ELEVATED TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREATS FOR PORTIONS OF THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/NORTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHWEST...
THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS PLAGUED THE SOUTHEAST WITH RAIN AND
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS IS FINALLY ON THE MOVE, FIRST TRACKING
THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH TODAY, THEN INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY
WEDNESDAY. THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL UNFOLDING TODAY. THIS
RAINFALL IS WELCOMED TO MUCH OF THE REGION GIVEN SOME PORTIONS OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC ARE EXPERIENCING MODERATE TO SEVERE DROUGHT
CONDITIONS. THAT SAID, RAINFALL RATES COULD BECOME HEAVY ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT A FLASH FLOOD THREAT FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. WPC MAINTAINS
A SLIGHT RISK (THREAT LEVEL 2/4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TO AS FAR NORTH AS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.
THERE ARE ALSO A DEARTH OF FLOOD WATCHES IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF
VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA. THE DEEP FETCH OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE
WILL STRETCH AS FAR WEST AS THE GREAT LAKES AND BOTH THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS WHERE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST
TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE IN THESE
AREAS ON WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS WILL ADVANCE UP INTO THE NORTHEAST
TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. WPC MAINTAINS A MARGINAL RISK
(THREAT LEVEL 1/4) IN THE MID-ATLANTIC ON WEDNESDAY AS ADDITIONAL
ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED
INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING.
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS ALSO UNFOLDING IN THE WEST AS A
PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM TRACKS THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TODAY,
THEN INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL
BE RESPONSIBLE FOR PRODUCING SEVERAL WEATHER RELATED HAZARDS IN
THE WEST. FIRST, STRONG WINDS IN THE SOUTHWEST HAVE PROMPTED THE
ISSUANCE OF WIND ADVISORIES AND HIGH WIND WARNINGS FROM SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA TODAY, ALONG WITH RED FLAG WARNINGS DUE TO THE
COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS AND DRY FUELS THAT ARE SUPPORTING
FAVORABLE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. SPC MAINTAINS A CRITICAL RISK
AREA FOR FIRE WEATHER IN SOUTHEAST ARIZONA, SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO,
AND FAR WESTERN TEXAS TODAY. SECOND, PERIODS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED
FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHWEST AND GREAT BASIN TODAY, THEN OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. SPC DOES HAVE A SLIGHT RISK (THREAT
LEVEL 2/5) FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS AND
NORTHERN NEBRASKA ON WEDNESDAY. THIRD, THERE IS SOME HIGH
ELEVATION MOUNTAIN SNOW IN PARTS OF MONTANA AND WYOMING. OVER A
FOOT OF SNOW IS FORECAST ACROSS MONTANA'S SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS,
WYOMING'S WESTERN MOUNTAIN RANGES, AND WYOMING'S BIG HORN
MOUNTAINS. TREACHEROUS TRAVEL FOR RECREATION IN THOSE AREAS ARE
LIKELY. THIS STORM SYSTEM USHERED IN A CONSIDERABLY COOLER
AIR-MASS THAT WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. THROUGH
MID-WEEK. TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES FROM THE WEST COAST TO THE GREAT
BASIN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES COULD BE ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO 20
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TODAY, WITH SIMILAR TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ON WEDNESDAY.
WHILE THE WEST IS UNUSUALLY COOL AND THE EAST IS ON THE MORE
SEASONAL SIDE OF THE TEMPERATURE SPECTRUM, THE GREAT PLAINS AND
MIDWEST ARE GETTING A SUMMER PREVIEW. THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL SEE
YET ANOTHER DAY OF HIGH TEMPERATURES CHALLENGING RECORD HIGHS AS
TEMPERATURES SOAR INTO THE 90S. IN ADDITION, BLUSTERY WINDS AND
DRY FUELS ARE PRESENT IN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND WESTERN
MINNESOTA, PROMPTING THE NEED FOR A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THESE
AREAS THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. FARTHER SOUTH, THE HEAT GROWS IN
INTENSITY ACROSS THE LONE STAR STATE WITH HIGHS IN THE TRIPLE
DIGITS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND INTO CENTRAL TEXAS.
WEDNESDAY SEES THE FOOTPRINT OF 80S AND 90S TEMPERATURES GROW
ACROSS THE HEARTLAND WITH THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN
MAKING THEIR HOME IN TEXAS. MORE OPPORTUNITIES FOR BOTH RECORD
BREAKING HIGHS AND RECORD WARM MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE COMMON
IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. NWS HEATRISK SHOW A GROWING FOOTPRINT OF MAJOR VALUES,
SUGGESTING THE FORECASTED TEMPERATURES CAN AFFECT ANYONE WITHOUT
EFFECTIVE COOLING AND/OR ADEQUATE HYDRATION. RESIDENTS THROUGHOUT
THE PLAINS SHOULD PLAN AHEAD TO FIND WAYS TO STAY COOL AND
HYDRATED, ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN TEXAS WHERE AT LEAST MAJOR
HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS MAY STICK AROUND THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK.
MULLINAX
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