974
FXUS01 KWBC 132012
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
411 PM EDT TUE MAY 13 2025
VALID 00Z WED MAY 14 2025 - 00Z FRI MAY 16 2025
...FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS ...
... EARLY SEASON HEAT WAVE TO BRING SCORCHING TEMPERATURES TO
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...
...COOLER CONDITIONS OUT WEST WILL PREVAIL BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ...
ACTIVE WEATHER IS FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY
AND ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY. ON THE
THREAT FOR FLOODING, A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR AREAS IN SOUTH AND NORTH DAKOTA AS THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS TO DROP A QUICK 2-3
INCHES OF RAINFALL. SOME ISOLATED FLOODING MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY SINCE THE FORMING LOW
PRESSURE WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT THE REGION. FOR THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT, STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS A SLIGHT RISK OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AS SURFACE INSTABILITY, A MODERATE JET, AND RATHER
FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL. AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS WELL. THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ON THURSDAY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY, THE UPPER MIDWEST, AND THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE STORM PREDICTION HAS ANOTHER SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5).
BOTH STORM MODES OF SUPERCELLS AND AN ORGANIZED LINE OF STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE, WITH HAIL AND STRONG WINDS BEING THE MAIN HAZARDS AGAIN.
THE SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S. WILL BE THE EPICENTER FOR RECORD WARMTH,
ESPECIALLY FOR MUCH OF TEXAS. STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGING AND WARM,
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A TROUGH ACROSS THE WEST WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR A WARM WEEK. MULTIPLE STATIONS ARE FORECAST TO BREAK
RECORD DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES RECORDS. AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING IS
ACTIVE OVER THE RIO GRANDE AND PARTS OF HILL COUNTRY, INCLUDING
METROS OF AUSTIN AND SAN ANTONIO, THROUGH TOMORROW. A HEAT
ADVISORY IS ACTIVE OUTSIDE THESE ZONES. THESE WATCHES AND WARNINGS
ARE LIKELY TO EXTENDED INTO LATER WEEK AS THE PATTERN REMAINS
FAVORABLE FOR DANGEROUS HEAT. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S
ACROSS THE TEXAS GULF COAST TO LOW 110S ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE WILL
BRING HIGH HEAT STRESS POTENTIAL. TAKE COOL BREAKS, STAY HYDRATED,
AND TAKE CARE OF VULNERABLE POPULATIONS SUCH AS THE ELDERLY AND
YOUNG.
THE WEST IS LIKELY TO SEE TEMPERATURES 10-15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE
AS A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DOMINATES. SHOWERY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN REGIONS OF THE
WEST THROUGH THIS WORK WEEK. LATE SEASON SNOW WILL ACCOMPANY THE
COOLER CONDITIONS AS WELL. MOUNTAINS IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
AROUND WYOMING, IDAHO, AND MONTANA COULD SEE HIGHER THAN SIX
INCHES OF SNOW IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN FROM TONIGHT THROUGH
TOMORROW. WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE
ACTIVE. THE SOUTHWEST WILL MUCH WARMER AND DRIER AS HIGHS REACH
THE 90S AND 80S. A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER RISK IS ACTIVE TOMORROW
FOR THIS REGION AS WELL WITH WARM TEMPERATURES, GUSTY WINDS, AND
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES PROVIDING FAVORABLE CONDITIONS.
THE OTHER NOTABLE WEATHER RISK WILL BE A PULSE STORM SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT AND RESIDUAL FLASH FLOODING THREAT ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC TOMORROW. THE MAIN SHIELD OF RAIN
PROVIDING THE HEAVIER RAIN AND HIGHER FLOOD THREAT THIS AFTERNOON
SHOULD EXIT OUT BY THE OVER-NIGHT. THE UPPER-LOW SHOULD BEGIN TO
WEAKEN TOMORROW, BUT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
TO STILL PROVIDE THE POTENTIAL FOR A HEAVY THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
OVER SATURATED SOILS FROM PREVIOUS DAYS RAINFALL. THEREFORE, WPC
HAS A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
AND MID-ATLANTIC FOR WEDNESDAY.
WILDER
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page