142
FXUS01 KWBC 140729
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
328 AM EDT WED MAY 14 2025
VALID 12Z WED MAY 14 2025 - 12Z FRI MAY 16 2025
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE FROM THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE MIDWEST...
..DANGEROUS HEAT IN TEXAS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
..ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THE SOUTHWEST
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S.
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, RESULTING IN A STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AT THE SURFACE. THE CENTRAL LOW WILL INITIALLY
STRENGTHEN OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY, THEN BECOME
OCCLUDED ON THURSDAY WHILE TRACKING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S. WHILE A DRY
LINE DEVELOPS IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, AND A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS
WILL PUSH SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S., AND CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY AND MIDWEST ON THURSDAY. POTENTIAL SEVERE
STORM HAZARDS MAY INCLUDE LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, AND
TORNADOES. STRONG STORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN THAT COULD
LEAD TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING.
ON FRIDAY, THE SURFACE LOW WILL LINGER OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH
PERSISTENT SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY, WHILE A WEAKENING COLD
FRONT BRINGS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEYS. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRIGGER A SECOND
WAVE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE OHIO AND MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEYS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AND THERE WILL BE ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND ISOLATED FLASH
FLOODING. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO SUPPORT SOME ISOLATED SEVERE STORM
POTENTIAL IN THE ARK-LA-TEX REGION.
ELSEWHERE, PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL PERSIST ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING, WITH WINTRY
MIXED PRECIPITATION AND SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. MEANWHILE, A WARM FRONT LIFTING
ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND OHIO VALLEY TODAY INTO THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION
SHOULD ALSO RETURN TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE THIS WEEK AS A
FRONTAL SYSTEM SLOWLY APPROACHES THE COAST.
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY THROUGH
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. DANGEROUSLY WARM HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS TEXAS EACH DAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH 100-110 DEGREES IN PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTH TEXAS AND WELL INTO THE 90S ELSEWHERE IN THE
STATE, WHICH WILL BE DANGEROUS TO ANYONE WITHOUT EFFECTIVE COOLING
AND ADEQUATE HYDRATION. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE ANOMALOUSLY WARM AS
WELL, ONLY DROPPING DOWN INTO THE 70S, WHICH WILL LIMIT OVERNIGHT
RELIEF FROM THE HEAT.
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO ELEVATED TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THE SOUTHWEST TODAY AND
THURSDAY. AREAS WEST OF THE DRYLINE IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL
SEE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DROP TO CRITICALLY LOW VALUES IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS, AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN
THE WAKE OF DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS. THESE CONDITIONS
WILL SUPPORT RAPID WILDFIRE SPREAD.
DOLAN
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