057
FXUS01 KWBC 141856
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
255 PM EDT WED MAY 14 2025
VALID 00Z THU MAY 15 2025 - 00Z SAT MAY 17 2025
...HEAVY RAIN AXIS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...
...SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FROM THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN PLAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY, FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY/GREAT LAKES INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY DURING THURSDAY AND
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER TO MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON
FRIDAY...
...ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING THREATS FOR PORTIONS OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
...RECORD HIGHS EXPECTED FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THURSDAY AND FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY...
...MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND RECENT RECORD HEAT TO COME
TO AN END ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
REGION...
...ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT TO CONTINUE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY
EVENING WILL SUPPORT A VERY ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM, HEAVY RAIN,
FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN
PLAINS, UPPER TO MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT FROM NEBRASKA, NORTHWARD INTO THE DAKOTAS. AN AXIS
OF HEAVY RAINS LIKELY OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS FROM NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA, NORTH THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAKOTAS. THESE HEAVY RAINS
WILL BE MUCH BENEFICIAL AS THEY ARE FORECAST TO FALL ACROSS AREAS
THAT ARE CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING MODERATE TO SEVERE DROUGHT
CONDITIONS. IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAINS, ISOLATED FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE ALONG WITH SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL WILL BE THE GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER RISK ACROSS THESE AREAS,
WITH A LESSER RISK OF TORNADOES. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE PUSHING EASTWARD INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY, GREAT LAKES, MID-WEST AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY REGION DURING
THE DAY ON THURSDAY, WITH LARGE HAIL, HIGH WINDS AND TORNADOES ALL
A THREAT . RAINFALL AMOUNTS, HOWEVER, ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS
HEAVY AS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS AS THE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY QUICK MOVING TO THE EAST
AND NORTHEAST COMPARED TO THE VERY SLOW MOVING AREA OF RAINS OVER
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. YET ANOTHER ROUND OF ACTIVE
THUNDERSTORMS AND POTENTIALLY SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY
FROM THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY, INTO THE MID TO LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND OHIO VALLEY REGION.
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS,
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING AS ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAINS
ARE DEVELOPING AHEAD OF A NORTHWARD MOVING MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW
MOVING ACROSS THESE AREAS. THIS NEXT ROUND OF RAINS MAY FALL
ACROSS REGIONS OF WESTERN VIRGINIA, FAR EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA, FAR
WESTERN MARYLAND AND FAR SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA THAT HAVE RECEIVED
3 TO 7 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE PAST TWO DAYS. WITH SOILS
SATURATED AND STREAM FLOW ABOVE AVERAGE FROM THE PREVIOUS HEAVY
RAINS, ADDITIONAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS NEXT ROUND OF
HEAVY RAINS. FLOOD WATCHES ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT ACROSS THESE
AREAS, AFFECTING NEARLY 6 MILLION PEOPLE.
THE ABOVE MENTIONED ACTIVE WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL BE BRINGING AN END TO THE RECENT
MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE AND RECORD TEMPERATURES THAT HAVE STRETCHED
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO MINNESOTA. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S
AND 90S WEDNESDAY ACROSS THIS AREA WILL DROP TO MUCH BELOW AVERAGE
LEVELS IN THE 40S AND 50S THURSDAY, FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
WHILE TEMPERATURES COOL ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL TIER OF THE
NATION, MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN PLAINS, MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, EASTWARD TO THE
EAST COAST OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY FROM SOUTH AND EAST TEXAS, NORTHEASTWARD INTO
THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON THURSDAY
AND FROM EAST AND SOUTH TEXAS, EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. ON
FRIDAY. MEANWHILE, THE WIDESPREAD BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
CURRENTLY FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE WEST COAST WILL BEGIN TO
MODERATE OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS, BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF MUCH
BELOW TEMPERATURES SPREAD INTO THE WEST THIS WEEKEND.
ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS, DRY CONDITIONS, LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND GUSTY WINDS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AN ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER THREAT OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE
CURRENTLY IN EFFECT ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA, NEARLY ALL OF NEW
MEXICO AND FAR SOUTHWEST TEXAS, AFFECTING APPROXIMATELY 3 MILLION
PEOPLE.
ORAVEC
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