838
FXUS01 KWBC 150640
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
240 AM EDT THU MAY 15 2025
VALID 12Z THU MAY 15 2025 - 12Z SAT MAY 17 2025
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS TODAY AND FRIDAY...
...HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE OHIO
AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS ON FRIDAY...
..DANGEROUS HEAT FORECAST FOR PORTIONS OF TEXAS
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
TODAY, SUPPORTING ACTIVE WEATHER FOR THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO
VALLEYS AND GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY AND FRIDAY. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT THAT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THESE REGIONS, AND CONDITIONS
WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. TODAY, THE
HIGHEST SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL EXTEND FROM THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE GREAT LAKES, THEN THE HIGHEST THREAT
WILL SHIFT TO THE OHIO AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS ON FRIDAY.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED, AND
HAZARDS MAY INCLUDE LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, AND
TORNADOES.
STORM MOTION IS FORECAST TO BE RELATIVELY PROGRESSIVE TODAY, WHICH
WILL HELP LIMIT ANY FLASH FLOOD THREAT FROM HEAVY RAIN, BUT SLOWER
STORMS ON FRIDAY COULD RESULT IN SCATTERED INSTANCES OF FLASH
FLOODING FOR PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS.
ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY WHERE PERSISTENT SHOWERS ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE STRONG LOW WILL RESULT IN 1-3 INCHES OF
RAINFALL. ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS WILL EXIST TODAY IN
PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC WHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL LINGER AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE
REGION. RECENT HEAVY RAINS HAVE SATURATED SOILS AND RESULTED IN
IMPACTFUL FLASH FLOODING IN PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC, AND ANY
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TODAY COULD BE PROBLEMATIC.
BY SATURDAY, THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PICK UP SOME
EASTWARD MOMENTUM, PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO THE EASTERN U.S.
WHILE A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE NORTHEAST. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE EAST AND EXTEND
BACK INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHERE THE TAIL OF THE COLD FRONT
WILL BRIEFLY BECOME STATIONARY BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL ALSO INCREASE ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY AS AN ENERGETIC PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM
PUSHES ONSHORE. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE FORECAST WITH HIGH
ELEVATION MIXED PRECIPITATION AND SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE CASCADES
AND NORTHERN ROCKIES.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO COOL ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S. AS
COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE 10-20 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL, ONLY REACHING THE 50S WITH SOME AREAS ONLY REACHING THE
UPPER 40S. MEANWHILE, THE SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S. WILL BE BATTLING
DANGEROUS HEAT AS HIGH TEMPERATURES SOAR INTO THE 90S AND 100S
ACROSS TEXAS. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FORECAST ACROSS
THE MIDWEST, MID-ATLANTIC, AND NORTHEAST WHERE HIGHS MAY REACH THE
80S AND LOWER 90S TODAY AND FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE
IN THE MIDWEST AND EAST ON SATURDAY WHILE BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES DEVELOP IN THE WEST AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES
ONSHORE.
DOLAN
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