756
FXUS01 KWBC 151858
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
257 PM EDT THU MAY 15 2025
VALID 00Z FRI MAY 16 2025 - 00Z SUN MAY 18 2025
...AN ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUE FROM THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/GREAT LAKES, INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID TO
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...
...HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO FRIDAY,
WITH HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE
OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS ON FRIDAY...
...ABOVE TO MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO STRETCH FROM THE
CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE EAST COAST, WITH RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE FROM SOUTH AND EAST TEXAS INTO THE
SOUTHEAST AND FLORIDA. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...
A VERY FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE MID
SECTION OF THE NATION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS TO SUPPORT AN ACTIVE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PATTERN FOR A LARGE REGION FROM THE GREAT
LAKES, SOUTH THROUGH NEARLY ALL OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, OHIO
VALLEY AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING
TO ENHANCE THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA, WITH THIS
ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BLOSSOM INTO THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT AS THEY PUSH EASTWARD INTO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/GREAT LAKES, SOUTHWARD INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY/OHIO VALLEY AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS. WITH BOTH ROUNDS
OF THUNDERSTORMS, LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES WILL BE
POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT, HEAVY RAINS
AND FLASH FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS. BY SATURDAY,
THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL SHIFT SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND EASTWARD TO THE MID-ATLANTIC WITH CALMER WEATHER ON TAP
FROM THE TENNESSEE/OHIO VALLEYS, NORTHWARD INTO THE GREAT
LAKES/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
HEAVY RAINS ALSO POSSIBLE FROM NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTH
DAKOTA THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WHERE AN AREA OF PERSISTENT
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL INTENSITY WILL OCCUR. SEVERE WEATHER
NOT A THREAT ACROSS THESE AREAS, WITH ONLY A MARGINAL RISK OF SOME
FLOODING.
LARGE PORTIONS OF THE LOWER 48 FROM THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN
PLAINS, EAST TO THE EAST COAST WILL EXPERIENCE ABOVE THE MUCH
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AS THE WORK WEEK ENDS AND THE WEEKEND
BEGINS. THIS LARGE REGION OF ABOVE TO MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES WILL PRODUCE MODERATE TO MAJOR HEAT RISKS ACROSS
THESE REGIONS. THE GREATEST RISKS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER FROM EAST AND SOUTH TEXAS, EASTWARD ALONG THE GULF COAST,
INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND FLORIDA. ACROSS THESE REGIONS, THERE WILL
BE POTENTIAL FOR BOTH RECORD HIGH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY AND RECORD HIGH MORNING TEMPERATURES FRIDAY, SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY MORNINGS.
IN CONTRAST TO THE MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH THE
CENTRAL TO EASTERN U.S...BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FROM
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS, NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND PACIFIC NORTHWEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE DEVELOPING BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND
FROM THE SOUTHWEST, THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AND PERSISTING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
NEXT STRONG MID TO UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING INLAND OFF THE
EASTERN PACIFIC.
ORAVEC
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