951
FXUS06 KWBC 151902
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT THU MAY 15 2025
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAY 21 - 25 2025
TODAY'S MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED 500-HPA
CIRCULATION PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AND SURROUNDING REGIONS DURING THE
6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE MANUAL 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND IS BASED PRIMARILY ON THE
ENSEMBLE MEANS FROM THE GEFS, ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS DUE TO RECENT MODEL
SKILL. THE RESULTANT MANUAL BLEND FEATURES MID-LEVEL RIDGING AND ABOVE-NORMAL
500-HPA HEIGHTS OVER THE WESTERN CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES (CONUS), WHILE A
MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND BELOW-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST OVER MOST OF THE
EASTERN CONUS. WEAK TROUGHING IS ALSO FORECAST ACROSS MAINLAND ALASKA,
EXTENDING INTO SOUTHEAST ALASKA, WHILE AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE AND ABOVE-NORMAL
500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST UPSTREAM OVER THE BERING SEA, THE ALEUTIANS AND
SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA. SLIGHTLY BELOW-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE
PREDICTED ACROSS HAWAII.
NEAR- TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CONUS (EXCEPT FOR FLORIDA AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, WHERE
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE INDICATED) AHEAD OF A PREDICTED TROUGH AND
BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS ACROSS THE REGION. PROBABILITIES OF BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXCEED 70% FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST. NEAR- TO ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER MOST OF THE WESTERN CONUS (EXCEPT FOR WASHINGTON,
WHERE BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE INDICATED), UNDER RIDGING AND POSITIVE
500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES. CHANCES OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING 60% IS
LIKELY OVER SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. UNDER PREDICTED NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT
ANOMALIES, BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY OVER NORTHERN ALASKA AND
SOUTHEAST ALASKA, WHILE SLIGHTLY ENHANCED ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURE
PROBABILITIES ARE FAVORED FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN MAINLAND ALASKA, CONSISTENT
WITH THE REFORECAST CONSOLIDATION TEMPERATURE TOOL. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE LIKELY FOR HAWAII, WITH POSITIVE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES
SURROUNDING THE ISLANDS.
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHEASTERN
CONUS, AHEAD OF PREDICTED TROUGHING. BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS WITH AMPLIFIED RIDGING PREDICTED OVER THE
REGION. SLIGHTLY BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS ALSO FORECAST OVER PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA,
SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL PRECIPITATION FORECAST TOOLS. ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR MOST OF ALASKA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A PREDICTED
TROUGH OVER THE STATE. PRECIPITATION CONSOLIDATION TOOL FORECASTS FAVOR
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR HAWAII.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 30% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE-AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5. GOOD
AGREEMENT AMONG THE DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL TOOLS IS OFFSET BY A PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAY 23 - 29 2025
ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD PREDICT A FAIRLY CONSISTENT
500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN RELATIVE TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD ACROSS NORTH
AMERICA AND THE SURROUNDING REGIONS. ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS FOR THE 8-14 DAY
PERIOD PREDICT MID-LEVEL RIDGING AND ABOVE-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS OVER THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS, WHILE A MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND BELOW-NORMAL 500-HPA
HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. WEAK TROUGHING CONTINUES OVER
MAINLAND ALASKA AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA, WITH AN AMPLIFIED ANOMALOUS RIDGE
UPSTREAM OVER THE ALEUTIANS. GENERALLY NEAR- TO SLIGHTLY BELOW-NORMAL 500-HPA
HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST FOR HAWAII, WELL TO THE SOUTH OF A MEAN RIDGE FORECAST
ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC.
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE FAVORED ACROSS MOST OF THE WESTERN
CONUS, PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA IN THE WEEK-2
PERIOD, UNDER RIDGING AND POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES. PROBABILITIES OF
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXCEED 50% FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS,
WHERE POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE GREATEST. BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FAVORED FOR MOST OF THE EASTERN CONUS UNDER PERSISTENT TROUGHING. ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR SOUTHERN ALASKA, WHILE SLIGHTLY BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES ARE INDICATED OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN ALASKA,
CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL TEMPERATURE FORECAST TOOLS. ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED TO PERSIST ACROSS HAWAII DURING WEEK-2 BY DYNAMICAL
MODELS.
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHEASTERN
CONUS, AHEAD OF A PREDICTED TROUGH OVER THE REGION. NEAR- TO BELOW-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED OVER MOST OF THE WESTERN CONUS, UNDER MEAN
POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES. SLIGHTLY BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS
FORECAST OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS, WHILE
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS PREDICTED OVER PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO, TEXAS,
COLORADO, KANSAS, AND OKLAHOMA, SUPPORTED BY MOST DYNAMICAL MODEL PRECIPITATION
FORECAST TOOLS. ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR MOST OF ALASKA UNDER
PERSISTENT TROUGHING. ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR HAWAII DURING
THE WEEK-2 PERIOD, CONSISTENT WITH SKILL WEIGHTED CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS CALCULATED FROM THE GEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 30% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5. GOOD
AGREEMENT AMONG THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL
TOOLS IS OFFSET BY DIFFERENCES IN ENSEMBLE MEAN 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES.
FORECASTER: LUKE H
NOTES:
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN
THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS
THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE,
"A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE
VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN,
"A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES
FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A
GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL
(I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES
A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
JUNE 19.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19570425 - 19910526 - 19620516 - 19510517 - 19550522
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19570424 - 19620515 - 19590506 - 19910525 - 19720520
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAY 21 - 25 2025
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B N OREGON N B NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A B NEVADA A B
W MONTANA N B E MONTANA N B WYOMING A B
UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B
NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA B N S DAKOTA B B
NEBRASKA B B KANSAS N N OKLAHOMA N N
N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A N
MINNESOTA B N IOWA B N MISSOURI B N
ARKANSAS N N LOUISIANA N B WISCONSIN B N
ILLINOIS B N MISSISSIPPI N N MICHIGAN B A
INDIANA B N OHIO B A KENTUCKY B A
TENNESSEE B N ALABAMA N N NEW YORK B A
VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B A MAINE B A
MASS B A CONN B A RHODE IS B A
PENN B A NEW JERSEY B A W VIRGINIA B A
MARYLAND B A DELAWARE B A VIRGINIA B A
N CAROLINA B A S CAROLINA N A GEORGIA N N
FL PNHDL N N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE B A
AK ALEUTIAN N A AK WESTERN N A AK INT BSN N A
AK S INT N A AK SO COAST N A AK PNHDL N A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAY 23 - 29 2025
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A N OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A B NEVADA A B
W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A N WYOMING A B
UTAH A B ARIZONA A N COLORADO A N
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A N
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA N N
N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA N N IOWA B N MISSOURI B N
ARKANSAS B N LOUISIANA B B WISCONSIN B N
ILLINOIS B N MISSISSIPPI B N MICHIGAN B N
INDIANA B N OHIO B N KENTUCKY B N
TENNESSEE B N ALABAMA B B NEW YORK B A
VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B A MAINE B A
MASS B A CONN B A RHODE IS B A
PENN B A NEW JERSEY B A W VIRGINIA B N
MARYLAND B A DELAWARE B A VIRGINIA B A
N CAROLINA B N S CAROLINA B N GEORGIA B N
FL PNHDL B B FL PENIN A B AK N SLOPE N A
AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN N A
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL N A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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