679
FXUS01 KWBC 160715
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
314 AM EDT FRI MAY 16 2025
VALID 12Z FRI MAY 16 2025 - 12Z SUN MAY 18 2025
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTBREAK EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI, TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS, ALONG WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING...
...MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NEW ENGLAND...
...RECORD-BREAKING HEAT FORECAST ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS, THE GULF
COAST, AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEKEND AS HIGHS SOAR INTO
THE UPPER 90S AND TRIPLE DIGITS...
...WINDY AND COOL CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TODAY, AS WELL AS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND ROCKIES THIS
WEEKEND...
A VERY ACTIVE AND COMPLEX MID-MAY WEATHER PATTERN IS SET TO
PRODUCE NUMEROUS AREAS OF SEVERE WEATHER, HEAVY RAIN, HIGH WINDS,
AND ANOMALOUS TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. A WAFFLING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE
MID-ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO BECOME THE FOCUS FOR A POTENTIALLY
DAMAGING SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK TODAY AS A SWEEPING SECONDARY
COLD FRONT PUSHES EASTWARD OUT OF THE GREAT PLAINS TONIGHT.
BLOSSOMING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF CONTAINING
LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND TORNADOES BETWEEN SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI AND WEST VIRGINIA, WITH THUNDERSTORMS CONTAINING DAMAGING
WINDS ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS A LARGER AREA EXTENDING FROM NORTHEAST
TEXAS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED
A MODERATE RISK (LEVEL 4/5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER CENTERED OVER THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY, WHERE THE GREATEST CONCERNS EXIST FOR SEVERAL
STRONG TORNADOES. ADDITIONALLY, THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS REGION WILL
BE CAPABLE OF CONTAINING INTENSE RAINFALL RATES AND COULD LEAD TO
SCATTERED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING. A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4)
OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS REGION. RESIDENTS
AND TRAVELERS ARE ADVISED TO REMAIN WEATHER AWARE BY HAVING
MULTIPLE WAYS OF RECEIVING WARNINGS AND KNOW WHERE THE NEAREST
STORM SHELTER OR SAFE PLACE IS SHOULD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
APPROACH.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER TODAY, A STRONG WOUND-UP LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CHURNING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS FORECAST TO
PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS,
WITH WINDY CONDITIONS EXTENDING FURTHER INTO THE MIDWEST. HIGH
WIND WARNINGS AND WIND ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT. AS THIS LOW
PUSHES A FEW FRONTAL BOUNDARIES EASTWARD, A MOIST AIRMASS SITUATED
OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL ALLOW FOR DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS FROM THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST TO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF CONTAINING INTENSE
RAINFALL RATES, WHICH COULD LEAD TO AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING. A
SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF
MAINE TODAY.
THE OTHER PRIMARY WEATHER STORY DURING THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE
ANOMALOUS EARLY-SEASON HEAT FORECAST FROM SOUTH TEXAS TO THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. WARM SOUTHERLY WINDS AND LIMITED CLOUD
COVER WILL ALLOW FOR HIGHS TO REACH NEAR RECORD-BREAKING TERRITORY
AND WELL INTO THE 90S, WITH TRIPLE DIGITS EXPECTED FOR PARTS OF
SOUTH TEXAS. THIS IS FORECAST TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD MAJOR TO
EXTREME HEATRISK THROUGH THIS WEEKEND ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN
TEXAS, WHICH EQUATES A LEVEL OF HEAT THAT CAN AFFECT ANYONE
WITHOUT EFFECTIVE COOLING AND/OR ADEQUATE HYDRATION. BE SURE TO
FOLLOW PROPER HEAT SAFETY TO STAY COOL DURING THIS FIRST MAJOR
HEAT WAVE OF THE SEASON. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS
INTO THE UPPER 80S AND 90S ARE ALSO FORECAST TODAY FROM THE
MIDWEST TO EAST COAST, BUT WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS A COLD FRONT
BRINGS TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO AVERAGE BY THIS WEEKEND.
FOR THIS WEEKEND, ACTIVE WEATHER IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE ALSO OVERSPREADING THIS
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. A LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS ON SATURDAY WILL LIFT NORTHWARD BY SUNDAY AND HELP SPARK
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE REGION. SOME STORMS
MAY TURN SEVERE AND PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS, HAIL, AND HEAVY RAIN.
MEANWHILE, A SEPARATE STORM SYSTEM ENTERING THE WEST OF SATURDAY
WILL SPREAD GUSTY WINDS AND SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE REGION, ALONG
WITH HIGH ELEVATION SNOWFALL. ANY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE SEEN AS BENEFICIAL, WITH THE STRONG WIND POTENTIAL
ON SATURDAY PROMPTING WIND ADVISORIES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA.
SNELL
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