063
FXUS01 KWBC 180727
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
326 AM EDT SUN MAY 18 2025
VALID 12Z SUN MAY 18 2025 - 12Z TUE MAY 20 2025
...MULTIDAY SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING THREAT TO BEGIN
ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES TODAY...
...SUMMERLIKE AND POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HEAT CONTINUES ACROSS
PARTS OF SOUTH TEXAS AND FLORIDA...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS...
A BUSY MID-MAY WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AND BRING A MULTITUDE OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER TO THE
LOWER 48, INCLUDING HEAVY RAINFALL, SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, FIRE
WEATHER, AND EVEN HEAVY MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL. THE STORM SYSTEM
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE UPCOMING ACTIVE WEATHER IS CURRENTLY
TRAVERSING THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND SPREADING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO THE REGION, HIGHLIGHTED BY WINTER STORM
WARNINGS OVER PARTS OF IDAHO AND WESTERN MONTANA FOR UP TO A FOOT
OF SNOWFALL TODAY. AS THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SLIDE EASTWARD
WHILE STRENGTHENING, THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL EXPAND
THROUGHOUT THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES BEFORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS BY
THIS EVENING. ALL MODES OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS A REGION SPANNING FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO
AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA INTO MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND AS FAR
SOUTH AS THE CONCHO VALLEY OF TEXAS. THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTAIN
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS, WITH THE GREATEST THREAT OF
TORNADOES LOCATED FROM CENTRAL KANSAS TO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA, WHERE
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED AN ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL
3/5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER. ADDITIONALLY, NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEXES DEVELOPING ALONG BOTH A SLOWLY LIFTING WARM FROM
EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE MID-SOUTH, AS WELL AS DRY
LINE LOCATED IN THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO PRODUCE INTENSE RAINFALL RATES CAPABLE OF LEADING TO INSTANCES
OF FLASH FLOODING. AS A RESULT, A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM EASTERN KANSAS AND
OKLAHOMA INTO THE OZARKS OF MISSOURI AND ARKANSAS THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY.
DAY 2 OF THIS SPRING STORM SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO SPARK ANOTHER
ROUND OF WIDESPREAD STRONG STORMS ON MONDAY AS AS AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE CHURNS OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND PRIMARY
ATMOSPHERIC INGREDIENTS RELOAD. HEAVY RAINFALL IS ONCE AGAIN
EXPECTED TO BLOSSOM THROUGHOUT THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, WHILE ALSO EXPANDING NORTHWARD INTO SOUTH
DAKOTA. LOCALLY INTENSE RAINFALL RATES ARE POSSIBLE FROM NORTH
TEXAS INTO ARKANSAS, AS WELL AS NORTHERN MISSOURI INTO SOUTHERN
IOWA. WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL DOES SET UP AND LINGER FOR
MULTIPLE HOURS, FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE AND COULD BECOME
SIGNIFICANT SHOULD IT ALIGN OVER SENSITIVE TERRAIN AND/OR URBAN
LOCATIONS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO ONCE AGAIN PRODUCE
AREAS OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ON MONDAY THROUGHOUT A
LARGE PART OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND OZARKS, WITH THE
THREAT OF TORNADOES ALSO CONTINUING IN THIS REGION. BY TUESDAY,
THIS POTENT MAY STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST AND SHIFT THE
DANGEROUS THUNDERSTORM THREAT INTO THE MIDWEST, TENNESSEE AND OHIO
VALLEYS. SCATTERED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN ALTHOUGH SHIFTED EAST
COMPARED TO THE PRIOR TWO DAYS. WITH WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER AND
HEAVY RAINFALL FORECAST IT IS PARAMOUNT TO STAY WEATHER AWARE,
HAVE MULTIPLE WAYS OF RECEIVING WARNINGS, HAVE A PLAN SHOULD
SEVERE STORMS STRIKE, AND REMAIN IN COMMUNICATION WITH
FAMILY/FRIENDS. FOR UP-TO-DATE LOCAL FORECASTS FIND YOUR LOCAL
WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV.
THE TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK CONTINUES THE
THEME OF EARLY SUMMER ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES, WITH AN
EMPHASIS ON SOUTH TEXAS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. HERE, HIGHS
WILL ONCE AGAIN RISE INTO THE MID-TO-UPPER 90S (TRIPLE DIGITS IN
SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS), WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY BREAK DAILY RECORDS
ALONG WITH CREATING A POTENTIALLY SITUATION FOR THOSE WITHOUT
ADEQUATE AIR CONDITIONING. ELSEWHERE, BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
WILL BE FOUND IN THE ROCKIES AND NORTHERN TIER. FROST ADVISORIES
ARE WIDESPREAD THIS MORNING THROUGHOUT THE DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA
WHERE LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DIP INTO THE 30S.
MEANWHILE, A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
CALIFORNIA EARLY THIS WEEK AS HIGHS BEGIN TO ENTER THE 90S IN THE
TYPICALLY HOTTER VALLEY LOCATIONS.
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ALSO NOTABLE THROUGH EARLY
THIS WEEK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY, DRY VEGETATION,
AND GUSTY WINDS ARE FORECAST WHICH COULD LEAD TO THE RAPID SPREAD
OF WILDFIRES. RED FLAG WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED.
SNELL
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page