303
FXUS01 KWBC 181957
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
357 PM EDT SUN MAY 18 2025
VALID 00Z MON MAY 19 2025 - 00Z WED MAY 21 2025
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS, MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND THE
OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY TO THE OHIO VALLEY...
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY; THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND MIDDLE /LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON MONDAY AND TENNESSEE AND
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS ON TUESDAY...
...THERE IS A CRITICAL RISK OF FIRE WEATHER OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...
A FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES EASTWARD TO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS, LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND THE SOUTHEAST
WILL MOVE EASTWARD TO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI/OHIO VALLEYS AND
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY TUESDAY. THE BOUNDARY WILL PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH AN INCREASED THREAT OF EF2
TO EF5 TORNADOES AND HAIL, TWO INCHES OR GREATER OVER PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS ISSUED A MODERATE
RISK (LEVEL 4/5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THE HAZARDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND A FEW TORNADOES.
ADDITIONALLY, THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CREATE HEAVY RAIN
OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS
ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS
OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THE
ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE MAINLY LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH
FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS, ROADS, SMALL STREAMS, LOW-LYING AREAS
THE MOST VULNERABLE, AND LANDSLIDES ON ROADS.
MOREOVER, A SECOND AREA OF SHOWERS AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND THE SOUTHEAST.
THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND
A MINIMAL THREAT OF TORNADOES.
FURTHERMORE, THE UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL
PRODUCE RAIN AND HIGHEST-ELEVATION SNOW OVER PARTS OF THE
NORTHWEST TO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES, WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. FOR MONDAY, RAIN AND HIGHEST-ELEVATION SNOW WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES, WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS.
IN ADDITION, ON MONDAY, AS THE FRONT ADVANCES EASTWARD, SHOWERS
AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH EF2 TO EF5 TORNADOES AND HAIL, TWO
INCHES OR GREATER OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS.
THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS ISSUED AN ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 3/5) OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS
FROM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND A FEW TORNADOES.
ADDITIONALLY, THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CREATE HEAVY RAIN
OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MIDDLE/LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK
(LEVEL 2/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FROM
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL
CREATE MAINLY LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS,
ROADS, SMALL STREAMS, LOW-LYING AREAS THE MOST VULNERABLE, AND
LANDSLIDES ON ROADS.
MOREOVER, ON MONDAY, A SECOND AREA OF SHOWERS AND SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP SLIGHTLY FARTHER EAST OVER PARTS OF THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY, SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS, AND SOUTHEAST. THEREFORE,
THE SPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY, SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS,
AND SOUTHEAST FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE HAZARDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND A MINIMAL THREAT OF TORNADOES.
ON TUESDAY, RAIN AND WET SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AS UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY MOVES EAST OVER THE REGION.
LIKEWISE, AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST ON TUESDAY, SHOWERS AND SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE MIDDLE/LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THEREFORE, THE
SPC HAS ISSUED AN ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 3/5) OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE TENNESSEE/ LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS ON
TUESDAY. THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND A
FEW TORNADOES.
SIMILARLY, THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CREATE HEAVY RAIN
OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, OHIO VALLEY,
AND THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A
SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE
UPPER/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, OHIO VALLEY, AND THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS ON TUESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE
MAINLY LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS, ROADS,
SMALL STREAMS, LOW-LYING AREAS THE MOST VULNERABLE, AND LANDSLIDES
ON ROADS.
MEANWHILE, ON MONDAY, A THIRD FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND INLAND TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/GREAT BASIN
BY TUESDAY EVENING. THE BOUNDARY WILL PRODUCE RAIN AND HIGHEST
ELEVATION SNOW OVER THE NORTHWEST AND THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION, CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY EVENING.
ELSEWHERE, DEEP BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING BEHIND A SHARPENING DRYLINE
AND A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED GRADIENT WIND RESPONSE
WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE-WEATHER
CONDITIONS. THE COMBINATION OF DRY AIR, DRY FUELS, AND GUSTY WINDS
OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES PROMPTED A CRITICAL RISK OF FIRE WEATHER
OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
ZIEGENFELDER
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