346
FXUS01 KWBC 190752
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
351 AM EDT MON MAY 19 2025
VALID 12Z MON MAY 19 2025 - 12Z WED MAY 21 2025
...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING EVENT EXPECTED
TODAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE
OZARKS...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT TO SHIFT INTO THE
OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS ON TUESDAY...
...ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND POTENTIALLY RECORD-BREAKING HEAT
CONTINUES ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH TEXAS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA,
WITH A WARMING TREND BEGINNING ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND THE SOUTHWEST
BY MIDWEEK...
A MATURING CENTRAL U.S. STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
ANOTHER ROUND OF DANGEROUS SEVERE WEATHER AND INSTANCES OF FLASH
FLOODING TODAY, WITH AN EMPHASIS ON EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO THE
OZARKS. FROM A BROADER PERSPECTIVE, AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF MODERATE
TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TO NORTH TEXAS AS AMPLE MOISTURE STREAMS NORTHWARD FROM THE
GULF AND WRAPS AROUND A CLOSED UPPER LOW CHURNING OVER THE
DAKOTAS. RAIN COULD EVEN MIX WITH SNOW ACROSS THE ELEVATED TERRAIN
OF THE BLACK HILLS AND OTHER PARTS OF THE WESTERN DAKOTAS.
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
WHERE THE GREATEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY OVERLAP TO THE SOUTH
OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS AREA WILL BE SITUATED EAST
OF A SHARP DRYLINE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTH OF A LIFTING
WARM FRONT STRETCHING ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO
THE SOUTHEAST. THESE STORMS SHOULD QUICKLY GROW UPSCALE AND TURN
SEVERE WHILE PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, VERY LARGE HAIL, AND
SOME POTENTIALLY STRONG TORNADOES. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS
ISSUED A MODERATE RISK (LEVEL 4/5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
CENTRAL/EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ADDITIONALLY, THE PROSPECT OF NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS TRACKING OVER
RELATIVELY SATURATED SOILS AND SENSITIVE TERRAIN WILL CREATE A
CONCERNING FLASH FLOODING THREAT. STORMS CONTAINING INTENSE
RAINFALL RATES COULD DUMP OVER 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN A
SHORT PERIOD OF TIME OVER NORTHERN ARKANSAS AND FAR SOUTHERN
MISSOURI. HERE, A MODERATE RISK (LEVEL 3/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
HAS BEEN ISSUED TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR NUMEROUS AND
LOCALLY SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING HEAVY RAIN AND SCATTERED FLASH
FLOODING IMPACTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS A LARGER AREA EXTENDING
FROM SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO CENTRAL IOWA, WHERE A SLIGHT RISK
(LEVEL 2/4) IS IN EFFECT. BE SURE TO HAVE MULTIPLE WAYS OF
RECEIVING WARNINGS, NEVER DRIVE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS, AND
REMAIN WEATHER AWARE AS CONDITIONS CAN CHANGE QUICKLY.
A SEPARATE ASPECT OF TODAY'S SPRING STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE
CENTRAL U.S. WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH FIRE WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES, INCLUDING AREAS FROM EASTERN ARIZONA TO WEST
TEXAS. GUSTY WINDS COMBINED WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND DRY
VEGETATION WILL ALLOW FOR THE RAPID SPREAD OF WILDFIRES. RED FLAG
WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED.
BY TUESDAY UNSETTLED WEATHER AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE
FORECAST TO SHIFT EAST INTO THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS, WITH AN
EXPANSIVE AREA OF SHOWERS ALSO INCLUDING MUCH OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS, MIDWEST, AND SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THE GREATEST
THREAT FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF ALL RELATED HAZARD
TYPES ARE HIGHLIGHTED BY AN ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 3/5) OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE, AS WELL AS
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO REMAIN
A CONCERN AS WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS OVER 1 INCH ARE IN THE LATEST
FORECAST THROUGHOUT THESE REGIONS, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS
EXPECTED WITHIN LOCATIONS EXPERIENCING STRONG STORMS THROUGHOUT
THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. BY WEDNESDAY, THE ASSOCIATED AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST TOWARDS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC SPREADING WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, BUT WITH THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT
DIMINISHING.
THE TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK WILL
REMAIN RATHER STEADY WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE
GULF COAST STATES, WHILE ALSO GRADUALLY BUILDING INTO CALIFORNIA
AND THE SOUTHWEST. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO REACH INTO THE MID-90S
ACROSS PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND SOUTH TEXAS, WITH TRIPLE
DIGITS POSSIBLE IN THE LONE STAR STATE. THESE READINGS COULD
APPROACH SEVERAL DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS AS WELL. FOR
CALIFORNIA, RECORD-BREAKING HEAT POTENTIAL STARTS ON WEDNESDAY AS
HIGHS REACH INTO THE 90S ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND TRIPLE
DIGITS IN THE TYPICALLY HOT VALLEY LOCATIONS. MEANWHILE, MUCH
COOLER AND WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE BETWEEN
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND NORTHEAST, WHERE HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE
50S AND 60S AS MORNING LOWS DIP INTO THE 30S AND 40S.
SNELL
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