497
FXUS01 KWBC 192007
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
406 PM EDT MON MAY 19 2025
VALID 00Z TUE MAY 20 2025 - 00Z THU MAY 22 2025
...THE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTH ON TUESDAY AND
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC ON WEDNESDAY ...
...ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF TEXAS, THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA, AND ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND THE SOUTHWEST...
...MUCH OF THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY WILL SEE
SHOWERY AND COOL CONDITIONS AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MATURES AND
MOVES EASTWARD FROM THE PLAINS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC...
A MATURING CENTRAL U.S. STORM SYSTEM IS PRODUCING DANGEROUS STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS A MODERATE RISK ACROSS MUCH OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE WESTERN ZONES OF THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. ALL SEVERE WEATHER HAZARDS ARE LIKELY: LARGE HAIL,
DAMAGING WINDS, AND A FEW STRONG TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE.
ADDITIONALLY, A MODERATE RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS ACTIVE
ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN ARKANSAS AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI WITH A
SLIGHT RISK EXTENDING ACROSS MUCH OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND MAY TRAIN. SOME
LOCATIONS COULD SEE 4-5 INCHES IN THE NEAR TERM THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. TURN AROUND, DON'T DROWN ! THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK AND
FLOODING RISK WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO
VALLEYS FOR TOMORROW. THE CURRENT SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK HAS AN
ENHANCED RISK FOR THESE REGIONS WITH A MIX STORM MODE OF ORGANIZED
CLUSTERS AND DISCRETE SUPERCELLS. HAZARDS OF A FEW STRONG
TORNADOES, DAMAGING WINDS, AND HAIL ARE MESSAGED. THE FLOODING
RISK WILL NOT BE AS HIGH TOMORROW, BUT SCATTERED FLASH FLOODING
WILL CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE WHERE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES TRAIN AND
DROP HIGH HOURLY RAINFALL RATES. BECAUSE OF THIS THREAT, WPC HAS
ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE
TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEY REGION. ON WEDNESDAY, THE SOUTHEAST AND
SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC HAVE A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER AS
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A COLD FRONT COULD PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS
AND CONTAIN A TORNADO OR TWO. A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL IS VALID FOR MUCH OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST AS A
SHIELD OF RAINFALL IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING
1-2 INCHES OF RAINFALL. SOME ISOLATED FLOODING COULD BE POSSIBLE
IN SENSITIVE URBAN AREAS AND SMALL STREAMS.
THE HEAT ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS OVER TEXAS HAVE BEEN ALLOWED TO
DROP AS TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED OFF TO AN EXTENT. HOWEVER,
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 90S ACROSS THE GULF SHORES AND
THE UPPER 90S TO EVEN LOW 100S FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL TEXAS TO THE
RIO GRANDE REGION. MY HOME STATE OF FLORIDA WILL REMAIN AROUND
5-10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE AS RIDGING CONTINUES TO HOLD STRONG AND
BRINGS WARM AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. FOR THE SPECIFICS, MIDDLE
90S ARE EXPECTED FOR THE SHORT RANGE. THE HEAT RISK INDEX HAS SOME
OF THE METROS OF ORLANDO AND MIAMI BEGINNING TO ENTER THE MAJOR
CATEGORY. PEOPLE SHOULD AVOID ACTIVITIES IN THE PEAK HEATING HOURS
AND STAY HYDRATED. THE SOUTHWEST WILL ALSO SEE HEAT BUILD AS
MID-LEVEL RIDGING TAKES HOLD OVER THE REGION. MODERATE AND MAJOR
HEAT RISK IS EXPECTED TOMORROW, WEDNESDAY, AND THURSDAY FOR MOST
OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, INCLUDING THE LOS ANGELES METRO. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S ACROSS THE
CALIFORNIA VALLEYS TO THE LOW 100S ACROSS THE DESERTS.
ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE COIN, MUCH OF THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
U.S. WILL BE COOL AND UNSETTLED AS GENERAL UPPER TROUGHING AND
RAIN FROM THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRAVERSING FROM THE PLAINS TO
THE MID-ATLANTIC. WIDESPREAD MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S
AND 40S ACROSS THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST AND NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS. LOW TEMPERATURES MAY
BRING FROST POTENTIAL ACROSS UPPER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST ON
TUESDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL THEN REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 40S THROUGH THURSDAY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. FOR
PRECIPITATION, MUCH OF THE MIDWEST AND NORTHERN PLAINS WILL SEE
RAIN SHOWERS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH COOL HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE 40S AND 50S. THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST WILL HAVE A
PARTICULARLY WET AND WINDY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH BELOW
AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND 60S. MOST OF THE AREAS
DISCUSSED COULD SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES MORE THAN 20 DEGREES COOLER
THAN EXPECTED FOR MID-LATE MAY.
WILDER
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