475
FXUS01 KWBC 201946
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
346 PM EDT TUE MAY 20 2025
VALID 00Z WED MAY 21 2025 - 00Z FRI MAY 23 2025
...SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING EXPECTED OVER THE
OHIO/TENNESSEE/MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS TODAY; MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST
TOMORROW...
...ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHERN TIER STATES; BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER...
AFTER AN ACTIVE 48 HOURS OF SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL OVER
THE NATION'S MIDSECTION, WELL DEFINED LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
SHIFT UNSETTLED WEATHER EASTWARD INTO THE OHIO/TENNESSEE/LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS TODAY, AND MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST TOMORROW.
PER THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER, THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR
AN ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 3/5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, WHERE
TORNADOES (SOME STRONG), SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS,
AND ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT SEVERE HAIL ARE ALL ON THE TABLE THROUGH
TONIGHT AS STORMS FORM AHEAD OF A SWEEPING COLD FRONT. EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL RATES AND PERIODIC CELL TRAINING WITHIN THE SAME STORMS
SHOULD ALSO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED INSTANCES OF FLASH
FLOODING ACROSS MUCH OF THE SAME AREA TODAY, WHERE A SLIGHT RISK
(LEVEL 2/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS IN EFFECT. BY TOMORROW, MOIST
SOILS IN THE MID-ALTANTIC/NORTHEAST WILL SUPPORT A SLIGHT RISK (AT
LEAST 15%) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AS SEVERAL ROUNDS OF STORMS ARE
EXPECTED. A MORE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT TO THE SOUTH WILL ALLOW FOR
INCREASED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
UPPER TROUGHING OVER SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE
U.S. WILL ALLOW FOR A COOLER AIRMASS TO PARK OVER THE REGION
THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND 50S WILL
BE 20-35 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND UPPER MIDWEST TODAY AND TOMORROW. MEANWHILE, A QUASI-ZONAL,
RIDGE-LIKE PATTERN OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER WILL SUPPLY AMPLE WARM
AIR INTO THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WIDESPREAD HIGH
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORDS MAY BE TIED OR BROKEN ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS.
ASHERMAN/KEBEDE
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