713
FXUS01 KWBC 230711
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
310 AM EDT FRI MAY 23 2025
VALID 12Z FRI MAY 23 2025 - 12Z SUN MAY 25 2025
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEYS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...
...THERE IS A CRITICAL RISK OF FIRE WEATHER OVER THE SOUTHWEST ON
FRIDAY...
UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA BY SUNDAY. THE
SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED RAIN AND SHOWERS OVER THE REGION
THROUGH SUNDAY.
MEANWHILE, A FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES AND SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE GREAT BASIN WILL BE
QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH SUNDAY. MOISTURE FLOWING NORTHWARD OUT OF
THE GULF OF AMERICA WILL OVERRUN THE EASTERN PART OF THE BOUNDARY,
CREATING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN OVER PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE
ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE MAINLY LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH
FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS, ROADS, SMALL STREAMS, AND LOW-LYING
AREAS THE MOST VULNERABLE.
FURTHERMORE, THERE IS A RISK OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BEING SEVERE. THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL
2/5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND THE MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND A
FEW TORNADOES. HOWEVER, THERE IS AN INCREASED RISK OF HAIL, TWO
INCHES OR GREATER, MAINLY OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
THE SETUP WILL BE THE SAME AS ON SATURDAY, WITH MOISTURE FLOWING
NORTHWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE MIDDLE/LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE MIDDLE/LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS
ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS
OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY FROM SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY
RAIN WILL CREATE MAINLY LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH
URBAN AREAS, ROADS, SMALL STREAMS, AND LOW-LYING AREAS THE MOST
VULNERABLE.
LIKEWISE, THERE IS A RISK OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEING
SEVERE. THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
THE MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FROM SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND A
FEW TORNADOES. HOWEVER, THERE IS AN INCREASED RISK OF HAIL, TWO
INCHES OR GREATER OVER THE AREA.
ELSEWHERE, UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES THROUGH
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION, DAYTIME HEATING WILL CREATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION ON FRIDAY AND THE GREAT BASIN ON SATURDAY.
FURTHER, A VERY DRY AND DEEPLY MIXED AIR MASS WILL SUPPORT
RELATIVE HUMIDITY REDUCTIONS TO AROUND 10-15 PERCENT (AS LOW AS
5-10 PERCENT), AND SUSTAINED WINDS 15-20 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF
ARIZONA INTO NEW MEXICO PROMPTED A CRITICAL RISK OF FIRE WEATHER
OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY.
ZIEGENFELDER
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