405
FXUS01 KWBC 232000
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
400 PM EDT FRI MAY 23 2025
VALID 00Z SAT MAY 24 2025 - 00Z MON MAY 26 2025
...A MULTI-DAY HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT WILL BRING AN INCREASINGLY
LIKELY FLASH FLOOD THREAT TO PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY THROUGH SUNDAY
FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE GULF
COAST STATES...
...TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN AVERAGE FROM THE NORTH-CENTRAL
U.S. TO THE EAST COAST, WHILE LOCATIONS IN THE WEST AND SOUTH WILL
BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE...
THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE LOWER 48 OVER THE MEMORIAL DAY
HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL BE A SLOW MOVING FRONT WHICH WILL SET UP FROM
THE COAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. INTO OKLAHOMA AND THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS. THE NEARLY STATIONARY NATURE OF THIS BOUNDARY OVER
THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS, COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN FROM
THE GULF, WILL MAINTAIN AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER FROM THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST.
BEGINNING TONIGHT, MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTAINING
HEAVY RAIN AND AREAS OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL DEVELOP FROM PORTIONS
OF KANSAS/OKLAHOMA INTO THE OZARK REGION. THESE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND TRANSLATE OFF TOWARD THE
SOUTHEAST SATURDAY MORNING WITH A BRIEF LULL BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND
OF STORMS DEVELOPS SATURDAY EVENING ACROSS SOME OF THE SAME AREAS
OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. YET
ANOTHER ROUND IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY FOR SOME OF
THESE SAME LOCATIONS. DAILY THREATS OF FLASH FLOODING ARE EXPECTED
FROM SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS, NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA, SOUTHWESTERN
MISSOURI AND NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS, WHICH ARE LIKELY TO CONTRIBUTE
TO AREAS OF CONSIDERABLE RIVER AND FLASH FLOOD IMPACTS INTO
MONDAY. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HIGHLIGHTING SLIGHT RISKS EACH DAY FOR SIMILAR
AREAS OF THE PLAINS INTO AND ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST, A CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW WILL BE SLOW TO
DEPART FROM THE NORTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL KEEP THE
REGION COOLER AND UNSETTLED WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. RAIN
SHOWER COVERAGE WILL BE A BIT LOWER ON SUNDAY COMPARED TO SATURDAY
AS THE CLOSED LOW BEGINS TO EXIT THE REGION TOWARD THE EAST, BUT
AN UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE WILL MAINTAIN A THREAT FOR RAIN INTO
SUNDAY EVENING, ESPECIALLY FOR UPSTATE NEW YORK INTO WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. WHILE RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY ON THE LOW
SIDE, RELATIVELY SPEAKING, THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL EXTEND
FROM NEW YORK INTO ALL OF NEW ENGLAND. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ROUGHLY 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FROM THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY
INTO NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY WITH A MODERATING TREND INTO SUNDAY
AND MEMORIAL DAY, BUT REMAINING BELOW LATE MAY AVERAGES.
OTTO
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page