509
FXUS01 KWBC 240728
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
327 AM EDT SAT MAY 24 2025
VALID 12Z SAT MAY 24 2025 - 12Z MON MAY 26 2025
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON
SATURDAY...
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY ON SUNDAY...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS, THE MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS,
AND THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA BY SUNDAY.
ADDITIONAL UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY WILL MOVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
INTO THE NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE
SCATTERED RAIN AND SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT
LAKES, ENDING BY MONDAY.
MEANWHILE, A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHEAST
NORTHWESTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL
REMAIN THROUGH MONDAY. MOISTURE FLOWING NORTHWARD OUT OF THE GULF
OF AMERICA WILL OVERRUN THE BOUNDARY, CREATING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS
ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS
OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE
MAINLY LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS, ROADS,
SMALL STREAMS, AND LOW-LYING AREAS THE MOST VULNERABLE.
FURTHERMORE, THERE IS A RISK OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BEING SEVERE. THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL
2/5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PLAINS, THE MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS, HAIL, AND A FEW TORNADOES. HOWEVER, THERE IS AN INCREASED
RISK OF HAIL, TWO INCHES OR GREATER, OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
THE THREAT OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL INCREASES ON SUNDAY AS MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO FLOW NORTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS, THE
MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND THE TENNESSEE VALLEY,
PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN.
THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A MODERATE RISK (LEVEL 3/4) OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING.
NUMEROUS FLASH FLOODING EVENTS ARE POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION, MANY
STREAMS MAY FLOOD, POTENTIALLY AFFECTING LARGER RIVERS.
MOREOVER, THERE IS A RISK OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEING
SEVERE. THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, THE
MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND THE TENNESSEE VALLEY FROM
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS, HAIL, AND A FEW TORNADOES. HOWEVER, THERE IS AN INCREASED
RISK OF HAIL, TWO INCHES OR GREATER, OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS.
FURTHER, UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
ELSEWHERE, A FRONT APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY,
MOVING INLAND TO THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND THEN TO
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA BY MONDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN
OVER PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY.
ZIEGENFELDER
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
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