639
FXUS01 KWBC 250652
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
251 AM EDT SUN MAY 25 2025
VALID 12Z SUN MAY 25 2025 - 12Z TUE MAY 27 2025
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SUNDAY...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI/TENNESSEE VALLEYS ON
MONDAY...
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY...
A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL REMAIN THROUGH TUESDAY.
MOISTURE FLOWING NORTHWARD OUT OF THE GULF OF AMERICA WILL OVERRUN
THE BOUNDARY, CREATING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN
OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI/TENNESSEE
VALLEYS. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A MODERATE RISK (LEVEL 3/4)
OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. NUMEROUS FLASH FLOODING
EVENTS ARE POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION, MANY STREAMS MAY FLOOD,
POTENTIALLY AFFECTING LARGER RIVERS.
FURTHERMORE, THERE IS A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THEREFORE,
THE SPC HAS ISSUED AN ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 3/5) OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FREQUENT
LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND A FEW
TORNADOES. HOWEVER, THERE IS AN INCREASED RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS OF 65 KNOTS OR GREATER AND HAIL, TWO
INCHES OR GREATER, OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
ADDITIONALLY, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF
THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY.
ON MONDAY, THE RISK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN
CONTINUES OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY, AND THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A
SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THESE
AREAS FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY
RAIN WILL CREATE MAINLY LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH
URBAN AREAS, ROADS, SMALL STREAMS, AND LOW-LYING AREAS THE MOST
VULNERABLE.
LIKEWISE, SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK
(LEVEL 2/5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE HAZARDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND A FEW TORNADOES. HOWEVER, THERE
IS AN INCREASED RISK OF HAIL, TWO INCHES OR GREATER, OVER PARTS OF
THE REGION.
FURTHER, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE
SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
MEANWHILE, A FRONT APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY,
MOVING INLAND TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION AND INTO PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN BY TUESDAY. THE SYSTEM
WILL PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN OVER PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SUNDAY
EVENING INTO MONDAY. ON MONDAY, THE RAIN WILL MOVE SLOWLY INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES/NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND END OVER THE
NORTHWEST. FURTHERMORE, AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY, CREATING LIGHT RAIN
OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
ELSEWHERE, UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL PRODUCE
SCATTERED RAIN AND SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH LATE MONDAY.
ZIEGENFELDER
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page