368
FXUS01 KWBC 251841
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
240 PM EDT SUN MAY 25 2025
VALID 00Z MON MAY 26 2025 - 00Z WED MAY 28 2025
...THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
INTO TH MID-SOUTH MONDAY...
...COOL TEMPERATURES PERSIST FOR THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE
NORTHEAST...
..WARM/HOT TEMPERATURES FOR THE GULF COAST REGION
A WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MEANDER IN PLACE FROM THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES EASTWARD THROUGH TEXAS/OKLAHOMA AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST.
THIS SEPARATES WARM/HOT TEMPERATURES TO THE SOUTH (80S/90S TO LOW
100S OVER PARTS OF TEXAS) AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE
NORTH (60S/70S). FOR SOUTH TEXAS, HEATRISK LEVELS WILL APPROACH
MAJOR/EXTREME LEVELS AND RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE
(ALONG WITH HEAT INDICES NEAR AND ABOVE 110F). SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FAVORED AT TIMES NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ON MEMORIAL DAY INTO TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON. SOME AREAS MAY SEE HEAVIER RAIN WITH LOCALIZED
FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IF THOSE AREAS HAVE SEEN RAIN IN THE PAST DAY
OR TWO. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND FLASH
FLOODING FOR NORTHEASTERN TEXAS INTO THE MID-SOUTH ON MONDAY. THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER ALSO DENOTES A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER OVER PARTS OF TEXAS ON MONDAY, WITH THE MAIN HAZARDS BEING
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. TO THE
NORTH OF THE FRONT, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHERE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER.
BY TUESDAY, THE HEAVIER RAINFALL THREAT WILL MOVE EASTWARD BUT
BECOME LESS FOCUSED. ISOLATED HEAVIER RAINFALL ALONG WITH SOME
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM TEXAS NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH
THE SOUTHEAST/TENNESSEE VALLEY INTO THE MIDWEST AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE FORMS TUESDAY MORNING NEAR MIDDLE TENNESSEE. SHOWERS WILL
ALSO SPREAD TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WHICH WILL REMAIN COOLER
THAN NORMAL DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER AND EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE STILL
COLD ATLANTIC OCEAN.
INTO THE NORTHEAST, THE LONG-LIVED SYSTEM WILL FINALLY PULL AWAY
BY TOMORROW WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN ON SUNDAY BUT
WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE MAY -- ONLY IN THE 60S/70S. BY
TUESDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE THROUGH THE 70S.
FOR THE WEST, AN INCOMING SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES BEFORE WEAKENING OVER
MONTANA. COOLER TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY (60S/70S) WILL QUICKLY
REBOUND ON TUESDAY BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL READINGS -- 70S/80S.
FRACASSO
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