915
FXUS06 KWBC 261902
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT MON MAY 26 2025
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 01 - 05 2025
A STRONG POSITIVE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER IS FORECAST IN THE GULF OF
ALASKA, EXCEEDING 210 METERS, DURING THE 6-10 DAY FORECAST PERIOD. THE STRENGTH
OF THIS ANOMALY HAS GROWN RELATIVE TO YESTERDAY’S FORECAST. THIS HAS AMPLIFIED
WEAK TROUGHS BOTH UP AND DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS AND THE WESTERN
CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS). WEAKER POSITIVE ANOMALIES AND ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL
RIDGING ARE FORECAST FOR THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES. THESE
ANOMALIES ARE BUILDING EAST WITH TIME. HEIGHT ANOMALIES DECREASE TOWARDS THE
SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WITH NEAR-NORMAL HEIGHTS FAVORED ALONG THE GULF
COAST.
THE AMPLIFYING MID-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC PROVIDES THE
FORCING FOR A DEEPER TROUGH IN THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS RESULTS IN SIGNIFICANTLY
LOWER CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE WEST RELATIVE TO
YESTERDAY. WHILE REFORECAST TOOLS CONTINUE TO FAVOR RELATIVELY ROBUST
PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION, THE RAW ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE AND THE STATISTICAL TOOLS FAVOR NEAR TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES,
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. THEREFORE, ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST WITH NEAR-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FAVORED ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND SONORAN DESERT. IN THE NORTHERN
PLAINS, UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES, ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURE CHANCES REMAIN MORE ROBUST RELATIVE TO THE WEST WITH 60% CHANCES
ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD REGION OF MINNESOTA BENEATH POSITIVE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT
ANOMALIES AND MID-LEVEL RIDGING. IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS, NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORED WITH NEAR TO BELOW-NORMAL MID-LEVEL
HEIGHTS. IN ALASKA, BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN FORECAST WITH GOOD SUPPORT
AMONG THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE. IN HAWAII, ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN
FAVORED.
TROUGHING IN THE WEST AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM A LIKELY TROPICAL SYSTEM
WHICH THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CURRENTLY HAS AT 90% CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT
IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS, SUPPORT ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION. THE STRONGEST PROBABILITIES ARE CENTERED OVER UTAH. MUCH OF THIS
REGION IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY AT THIS TIME OF YEAR, PRIOR TO THE NORTH
AMERICAN MONSOON, AND THEREFORE, EVEN SMALL AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION WOULD
BRING PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ABOVE-NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD. IN THE EAST,
BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS GENERALLY FAVORED, WITH THE BEST AGREEMENT AMONG
THE DYNAMICAL AND THE STATISTICAL TOOLS ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS FLORIDA WITH A POSSIBLE WEAKNESS
IN THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE BRINGING ENHANCED TROPICAL MOISTURE TO THE REGION. IN
ALASKA, ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE,
EXCLUDING PARTS OF SOUTHEAST ALASKA, NEAR THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND POSITIVE
500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES IN THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC. IN HAWAII, TOOLS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT FOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 10% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 20% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED
ON DAY 8, 45% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 25%
OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5. DUE TO FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE MODEL HEIGHT PATTERN BUT INCREASED UNCERTAINTY DUE TO
CHANGES FROM YESTERDAY’S FORECAST.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 03 - 09 2025
AS IN THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, A BROAD STRENGTHENING OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND
POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC ARE HELPING TO
FORCE A MORE AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS IN THE
WEEK-2 PERIOD. IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS, POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT
ANOMALIES CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EAST RELATIVE TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, WITH
MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE EAST COAST DURING WEEK-2. IN ALASKA, NORTH
OF THE MID-LATITUDE RIDGE IN THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC, WEAK TROUGHING REMAINS
FAVORED, HOWEVER, POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE BUILDING INTO SOUTHEAST
ALASKA.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY FOR TEMPERATURES,
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE WEST DURING THE WEEK-2 PERIOD WITH DIFFERENCES AMONG
THE REFORECAST TOOLS, RAW ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE, AND STATISTICAL TOOLS. THEREFORE,
A BROAD SWATH OF NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE WEST.
BELOW-NORMAL IS FAVORED IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS, CONSISTENT WITH THE
LOWEST HEIGHT ANOMALIES DURING THE WEEK-2 PERIOD. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FAVORED SLIGHTLY IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT
ANOMALIES MOVING INTO THE REGION. IN THE EASTERN CONUS, THE POSITIVE 500-HPA
HEIGHT ANOMALIES CENTERED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BRINGS ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO MUCH OF THE REGION. IN ALASKA, GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FAVOR
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE, EXCLUDING PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST ALASKA. IN HAWAII, ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN THE MOST LIKELY
OUTCOME.
THERE IS INCREASED UNCERTAINTY IN THE WEEK-2 PRECIPITATION FORECAST RELATIVE TO
THE 6-10 DAY FORECAST. MUCH OF THE UNCERTAINTY LIES IN HOW MUCH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL STILL BE IN THE WEST AT THE ONSET OF WEEK-2 AND WHETHER THE
MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE ABLE TO PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING TO BRING WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION. THE ECENS-BASED TOOLS WOULD FAVOR A WETTER FORECAST ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN, WHILE THE GEFS IS PROGRESSING THAT MOISTURE FURTHER EAST INTO THE
ROCKIES AND PLAINS. THEREFORE, ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE ENHANCED
(40-50%) ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN. NEAR-NORMAL PRECIPITATION
IS GENERALLY FAVORED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND FROM THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI, OHIO, TENNESSEE VALLEYS INTO THE GREAT LAKES, WITH INCREASED
UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE MID-LEVEL PATTERN. ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS MORE STRONGLY FAVORED ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA, WITH
CONTINUED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK-2 PERIOD. IN
ALASKA AND HAWAII, ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED CONSISTENT WITH THE
DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 10% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 20% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED
ON DAY 11, 45% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 25%
OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
FAIR AGREEMENT AMONG THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE OFFSET BY A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN.
FORECASTER: RYAN BOLT
NOTES:
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN
THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS
THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE,
"A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE
VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN,
"A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES
FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A
GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL
(I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES
A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
JUNE 19.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19610521 - 20030512 - 20040601 - 19760521 - 19730521
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20040602 - 20030512 - 19760519 - 19610522 - 19900523
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUN 01 - 05 2025
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A A OREGON A A NRN CALIF N A
SRN CALIF N A IDAHO A A NEVADA A A
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A
UTAH A A ARIZONA N A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA N N
N TEXAS N N S TEXAS N N W TEXAS N A
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A N MISSOURI A N
ARKANSAS N B LOUISIANA N N WISCONSIN A N
ILLINOIS A B MISSISSIPPI B N MICHIGAN A N
INDIANA A B OHIO N B KENTUCKY N B
TENNESSEE N B ALABAMA B N NEW YORK N N
VERMONT N N NEW HAMP N N MAINE N N
MASS N N CONN N N RHODE IS N N
PENN N B NEW JERSEY N B W VIRGINIA N B
MARYLAND N B DELAWARE N B VIRGINIA N B
N CAROLINA N B S CAROLINA N N GEORGIA N N
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE B A
AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN B A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUN 03 - 09 2025
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A N OREGON A N NRN CALIF N A
SRN CALIF B N IDAHO N A NEVADA N A
W MONTANA N A E MONTANA N A WYOMING N A
UTAH N A ARIZONA B A COLORADO N A
NEW MEXICO N A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA N A KANSAS N N OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A N W TEXAS N N
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A N MISSOURI A N
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A N
INDIANA A N OHIO A N KENTUCKY A N
TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A N
VERMONT A B NEW HAMP A B MAINE A N
MASS A B CONN A B RHODE IS A B
PENN A N NEW JERSEY A B W VIRGINIA A N
MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE B A
AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN B A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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