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FXUS06 KWBC 271902
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2025
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 02 - 06 2025
A STRONG POSITIVE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER IS FORECAST IN THE GULF OF
ALASKA, EXCEEDING 240 METERS, DURING THE 6-10 DAY FORECAST PERIOD. THE STRENGTH
OF THIS ANOMALY HAS GROWN RELATIVE TO YESTERDAY’S FORECAST. A TROUGH ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS) HAS FURTHER AMPLIFIED IN RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE
WITH NEGATIVE ANOMALIES GREATLY EXPANDED RELATIVE TO YESTERDAY ACROSS THE WEST.
POSITIVE 500-HPA ANOMALIES HAVE STRENGTHENED ALONG WITH THE ASSOCIATED
MID-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE GREAT LAKES. HEIGHT ANOMALIES DECREASE TOWARDS THE
SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS BUT HAVE INCREASED SUBSTANTIALLY RELATIVE TO
PRIOR FORECASTS.
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARDS A MORE AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL TROUGH
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS RELATIVE TO PRIOR FORECASTS. THIS HAS LED TO LARGE
CHANGES IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IN TODAY’S OUTLOOK. BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE NOW FAVORED ACROSS MOST AREAS WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE HAS COOLED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS AND STATISTICAL GUIDANCE REMAINS ROBUST FOR BELOW-NORMAL IN
THE REGION. THIS RESULTS IN TWO CATEGORY CHANGES IN PLACES TO REFLECT ONGOING
CHANGES IN THE 6-10 DAY FORECAST GUIDANCE. EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE,
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY FAVORED BENEATH POSITIVE 500-HPA
ANOMALIES AND MID-LEVEL RIDGING. BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN PARTS OF THE
SOUTHEAST ARE FINALLY BEING SCOURED OUT BY INCREASED HEIGHT ANOMALIES WITH A
SLIGHT TILT TOWARDS ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTHEAST. THE STRONGEST
CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE BENEATH THE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALY
CENTER OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. IN ALASKA, BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN
FORECAST WITH GOOD SUPPORT AMONG THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE. IN HAWAII,
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORED.
TROUGHING IN THE WEST AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM A LIKELY TROPICAL SYSTEM
WHICH THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CURRENTLY HAS AT NEAR 100% CHANCE OF
DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT 2 DAYS, SUPPORT ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. THE STRONGEST PROBABILITIES ARE CENTERED OVER UTAH.
MUCH OF THIS REGION IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY AT THIS TIME OF YEAR, PRIOR TO THE
NORTH AMERICAN MONSOON, AND THEREFORE, EVEN SMALL AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION
WOULD BRING PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ABOVE-NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD. BELOW-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THE NORTHEAST, MID-ATLANTIC, STRETCHING BACK INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY CONSISTENT WITH THE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FIELD AND DYNAMICAL
GUIDANCE. THERE ARE INCREASING CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION INTO
PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES WITH AN AREA
OF LOW-PRESSURE EJECTING FROM THE ROCKIES. ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS ALSO
FAVORED ACROSS FLORIDA WHERE A POSSIBLE WEAKNESS IN THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE MAY
BRING ENHANCED TROPICAL MOISTURE TO THE REGION. IN ALASKA, ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE, EXCLUDING PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
ALASKA, NEAR THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES IN THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC. IN HAWAII, TOOLS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 10% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 30% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED
ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 20%
OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5. DUE TO FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE MODEL HEIGHT PATTERN BUT INCREASED UNCERTAINTY DUE TO
CHANGES FROM YESTERDAY’S FORECAST.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 04 - 10 2025
A BROAD MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC, HELPING TO FORCE A WEAK TROUGH ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS IN THE WEEK-2 PERIOD. THE TROUGH IS SIGNIFICANTLY LESS
AMPLIFIED RELATIVE TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS,
POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EAST RELATIVE TO THE
6-10 DAY PERIOD, WITH MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE EAST COAST DURING
WEEK-2 AND STRENGTHENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS. IN
ALASKA, NORTH OF THE MID-LATITUDE RIDGE IN THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC, WEAK
TROUGHING REMAINS FAVORED, HOWEVER, POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE
BUILDING INTO THE ALEUTIANS AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY FOR TEMPERATURES,
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE WEST DURING THE WEEK-2 PERIOD WITH DIFFERENCES AMONG
THE REFORECAST TOOLS, RAW ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE, AND STATISTICAL TOOLS. HOWEVER,
TOOLS ARE GENERALLY MORE SUPPORTIVE OF BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
INTERIOR WEST AND INTO PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS THE WEAK TROUGH AXIS
PROGRESSES EAST. NEAR TO EVEN SOME ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ALONG
THE WEST COAST. IN THE EAST, BUILDING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
FAVOR STRONG CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THIS REGION. STRONGER
CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FAVORED THROUGHOUT THE SOUTHEAST
AND GULF COAST RELATIVE TO YESTERDAY. IN ALASKA, BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
REMAIN FAVORED WITH WEAK TROUGHING OVER THE STATE. IN HAWAII, ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORED BUT TOOLS ARE WEAKER RELATIVE TO YESTERDAY WITH
MOST ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES CHANCES DECREASING BY ABOUT 10%.
THERE IS INCREASED UNCERTAINTY IN THE WEEK-2 PRECIPITATION FORECAST RELATIVE TO
THE 6-10 DAY FORECAST. THERE ARE GENERALLY WEAK SIGNALS IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE
FOR THE PERIOD WITH DIFFERENCES BETWEEN DYNAMICAL FORECAST GUIDANCE. OVERALL,
MUCH OF THE CONUS IS SLIGHTLY TILTED TOWARDS ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE REFORECAST GUIDANCE. THE STRONGEST CHANCES ARE ACROSS THE
UPPER-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES WHERE TOOLS HAVE A MODEST
AMOUNT OF AGREEMENT. THIS REGION WOULD BE CONSISTENT WITH THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH
PROGRESSING EASTWARD FROM THE ROCKIES AND POSSIBLE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT.
THERE ARE SLIGHTLY ENHANCED ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION SIGNALS FOR PARTS OF
FLORIDA WHERE A WAVE OF ENERGY MAY BRING ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION TO THE
REGION. BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED ACROSS PARTS OF NEW
ENGLAND. IN ALASKA AND HAWAII, ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED CONSISTENT
WITH THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 10% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 30% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED
ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 20%
OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
FAIR AGREEMENT AMONG THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE OFFSET BY A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN.
FORECASTER: RYAN BOLT
NOTES:
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN
THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS
THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE,
"A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE
VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN,
"A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES
FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A
GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL
(I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES
A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
JUNE 19.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20040601 - 19730522 - 19760522 - 20030512 - 19880531
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19730523 - 20040601 - 20030512 - 19730507 - 19820517
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUN 02 - 06 2025
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B N OREGON B A NRN CALIF B A
SRN CALIF B N IDAHO B A NEVADA B A
W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B A WYOMING N A
UTAH B A ARIZONA B A COLORADO N A
NEW MEXICO B A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A N
INDIANA A N OHIO A B KENTUCKY A N
TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A N NEW YORK A B
VERMONT A B NEW HAMP A B MAINE A B
MASS A B CONN A B RHODE IS A B
PENN A B NEW JERSEY A B W VIRGINIA A B
MARYLAND A B DELAWARE A B VIRGINIA A B
N CAROLINA A B S CAROLINA N N GEORGIA A N
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE B A
AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN B A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL N A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUN 04 - 10 2025
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N N OREGON N N NRN CALIF N N
SRN CALIF B N IDAHO B A NEVADA B A
W MONTANA B N E MONTANA B A WYOMING B A
UTAH B A ARIZONA B N COLORADO B A
NEW MEXICO N N N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA B A
NEBRASKA N A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A N
MINNESOTA N A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A N NEW YORK A N
VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N
MASS A B CONN A B RHODE IS A B
PENN A N NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N
N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE B A
AK ALEUTIAN N N AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN B A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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