883
FXUS01 KWBC 271908
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
307 PM EDT TUE MAY 27 2025
VALID 00Z WED MAY 28 2025 - 00Z FRI MAY 30 2025
...UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTAINING CHANCES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
AND HEAVY RAINFALL TO CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
UNITED STATES, SOUTHEAST, AND MID-ATLANTIC...
...BUILDING EARLY SUMMER HEAT TO BEGIN IMPACTING MUCH OF THE WEST
BY MIDWEEK...
WITH MEMORIAL DAY 2025 NOW IN THE REAR-VIEW MIRROR, THE WEATHER
PATTERN FOR THE FINAL WEEK OF MAY FEATURES CONTINUED WIDESPREAD
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SPANNING FROM THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PLAINS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC. TWO SEPARATE AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE
PUSHING NORTHEAST (ONE CURRENTLY OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND THE
OTHER ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COASTLINE) ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD
RAINFALL INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC TONIGHT AND EVENTUALLY THE
NORTHEAST BY THURSDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE, THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
CONTINUING ALONG A STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM
THE SOUTHEAST TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL FOCUS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME STORMS TO TURN SEVERE AND CONTAIN INTENSE RAINFALL RATES.
SPECIFICALLY, THE SEVERE WEATHER AND EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOKS
HIGHLIGHT WESTERN/SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS AS WELL AS THE SOUTHEAST AS
HAVING THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR STRONG STORMS AND INSTANCES OF
FLASH FLOODING THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.
BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, CONTINUED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS FORECAST
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC, NORTHEAST, AND SPREADING INTO PARTS OF
THE GREAT LAKES. THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO THE SOUTH AS
INCREASED LEVELS OF ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTENT COMBINE WITH
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND ELEVATED LEVELS OF INSTABILITY. AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND
SWINGING EASTWARD ACROSS THE OZARKS BY THURSDAY WILL HELP LIFT A
WARM FRONT THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY,
WHICH WILL HELP SPARK A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS TRAVERSING THE
REGION. STORMS ACROSS THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES AS WELL AS
WEST TEXAS MAY CONTAIN DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL ON
WEDNESDAY. AS THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD ON THURSDAY
IT WILL SQUEEZE THE BEST CHANCES FOR INTENSE RAINFALL TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL GULF COAST, WHERE A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4)
OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL HAS BEEN ISSUED.
DUE TO THE CLOUDY, RAINY WEATHER THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN U.S. THROUGH MIDWEEK, THE TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK IS FAIRLY
COOL WITH WIDESPREAD BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES MOST NOTABLE IN
THE MID-ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY AND CENTRAL U.S. THURSDAY. HOWEVER, THE
WEST IS EXPECTED TO TELL A DIFFERENT, MORE SUMMER-LIKE, STORY TO
END THE MONTH OF MAY. AN ANOMALOUS UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER
WESTERN CANADA WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES TO OVERSPREAD
THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL GREAT BASIN AND INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
BY MIDWEEK BEFORE THE PATTERN TRULY AMPLIFIES BY FRIDAY AND
PROPELS FOR MORE EXTREME HEAT INTO CALIFORNIA AND THE REMAINDER OF
THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. STICKING WITH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
FOR NOW, NOT REALLY AN EXPECTATION FOR NUMEROUS DAILY RECORDS, BUT
HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO REACH INTO THE 80S AND 90S FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION. MEANWHILE, LOW TRIPLE DIGITS ARE FORECAST FOR THE
TYPICALLY HOT SOUTHWEST DESERT LOCATIONS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
BE SURE TO PLAN AHEAD AND FOLLOW PROPER HEAT SAFETY THIS WEEK AS
EARLY-SEASON HEAT WAVES CAN BE PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS!
SNELL
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