967
FXUS02 KWBC 280700
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 AM EDT WED MAY 28 2025
VALID 12Z SAT MAY 31 2025 - 12Z WED JUN 04 2025
..GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
GUIDANCE OFFERS A QUITE SIMILAR PATTERN EVOLUTION THROUGH MEDIUM
RANGE TIME SCALES AND HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER ALIGNED WITH EMBEDDED
SYSTEM AS WELL, BOLSTERING FORECAST CONFIDENCE. LINGERING MASS
FIELD BASED VARIANCES ARE MAINLY WITH UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPMENT
INTO THE WEST BY EARLY-MID NEXT WEEK. FAVOR A COMPOSITE OF WELL
CLUSTERED 18 UTC GFS AND 12 UTC ECMWF/CANADIAN/UKMET GUIDANCE FOR
THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY BEFORE INCLUSION OF MODEST AMOUNTS OF
GEFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AT LONGER TIME FRAMES TO
SMOOTH ROUGH EDGES CONSISTENT WITH INDIVIDUAL PREDICTABILITY. WPC
PRODUCT CONTINUITY IS WELL MAINTAINED, WITH A SOLUTION IN LINE
WITH THE NBM, MACHINE LEARNING MODELS AND LATEST 00 UTC GUIDANCE.
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
THE FLOW PATTERN OVER OUR FINE NATION WILL BE IN TRANSITION INTO
THE WEEKEND. A SERIES OF LEADING SHORTWAVES AND SECONDARY SYSTEMS
WILL DIG INTO AN AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH OVER A COOLED AND UNSETTLED
EAST AS A TRAILING AND RAINFALL FOCUSING FRONT WORKS OFFSHORE INTO
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THE GULF AND FLORIDA WHERE SOME HEAVY
DOWNPOURS MAY LINGER INTO NEXT WEEK WITH DEEPENED MOISTURE TO
MONITOR. THE BULK OF UPPER TROUGH ENERGY LIFTS OUT EARLY NEXT
WEEK. IN THIS PATTERN A MAIN DEEPENED SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT FROM
NEW ENGLAND INTO EASTERN CANADA THIS WEEKEND. A WPC DAY4/SATURDAY
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK (ERO) MARGINAL RISK AREA REMAINS IN
PLACE FOR NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN WRAPPED FLOW.
MEANWHILE, UPPER RIDGING WILL PREVAIL OVER MUCH OF A WARMED WEST
INTO THE WEEKEND EXCLUDING UPPER TROUGH ENERGY WITH MODEST RAIN
WORKING OVER THE NORTHWEST. HOWEVER, GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED IN FAVOR
OF SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFICATION INTO THE WEST EARLY NEXT
WEEK, ALONG WITH THE EJECTION OF THE LEAD SOUTHERN STREAM CLOSED
SYSTEM FROM OFFSHORE BAJA. THIS TRANSITION WILL ACT TO PROVIDE
RELIEF FROM THE HEAT OVER THE WEST WITH THE BUILDING OF MUCH MORE
UNSETTLED AND INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD WET FLOW PATTERN SPREADING
INCREASINGLY INLAND AND DOWNSTREAM TO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND
ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH MIDWEEK TO INCLUDE SOME
THREAT FOR ELEVATION HEAVY SNOW.
IN THE WEST, UPPER RIDGING WILL SUPPORT HEAT OVER THE WEST THIS
INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH TEMPERATURES RISING UPWARDS TO 10 TO 20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THIS IN PARTICULAR MAY LEAD TO A HAZARDOUS
HEAT FOCUS FOR THE CALIFORNIA CENTRAL VALLEY INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. PRE-FRONTAL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO 10-15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL SHOULD THEN SPREAD TO THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S..
SCHICHTEL
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST (QPF), EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK (ERO), WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK (WWO) PROBABILITIES, HEAT
INDICES, AND KEY MESSAGES CAN BE ACCESSED FROM:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
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