185
FXUS06 KWBC 281902
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT WED MAY 28 2025
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 03 - 07 2025
A POSITIVE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER IS FORECAST IN THE GULF OF ALASKA,
EXCEEDING 180 METERS, DURING THE 6-10 DAY FORECAST PERIOD. THE STRENGTH OF THIS
ANOMALY HAS WEAKENED RELATIVE TO YESTERDAY’S FORECAST. A TROUGH ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS) IS FILLING IN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AND THE
6-10 DAY MEAN HAS REDUCED NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES RELATIVE TO
YESTERDAY. POSITIVE 500-HPA ANOMALIES HAVE STRENGTHENED ALONG WITH THE
ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE GREAT LAKES. HEIGHT ANOMALIES DECREASE
TOWARDS THE SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS.
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT AN AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL TROUGH EARLY IN THE
PERIOD ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS LEADS TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO BE
FAVORED ACROSS MOST AREAS WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE DURING THE 6-10 DAY
PERIOD CONSISTENT WITH YESTERDAY’S FORECAST. HOWEVER, BY THE END OF THE PERIOD
THE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS DIVERGING BRINGING INCREASED UNCERTAINTY TO THE
FORECAST. EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE, ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
GENERALLY FAVORED BENEATH POSITIVE 500-HPA ANOMALIES AND MID-LEVEL RIDGING. THE
STRONGEST CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE BENEATH THE 500-HPA HEIGHT
ANOMALY CENTER OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. IN ALASKA, BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES REMAIN FORECAST WITH GOOD SUPPORT AMONG THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE. IN
HAWAII, ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORED.
TROUGHING IN THE WEST AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM A LIKELY TROPICAL SYSTEM,
WHICH THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CURRENTLY HAS AT NEAR 100% CHANCE OF
DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT 2 DAYS, SUPPORT ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. HOWEVER, MUCH OF THIS MOISTURE IS FURTHER NORTH
RELATIVE TO PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND NEAR- TO BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS
FAVORED FOR ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO TODAY. THERE ARE ENHANCED CHANCES FOR
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION INTO PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS, UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES WITH MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THE DEVELOPMENT
OF AN AREA OF LOW-PRESSURE THAT WILL EJECT FROM THE ROCKIES. ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS ALSO FAVORED ACROSS FLORIDA WHERE A POSSIBLE WEAKNESS IN THE
SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE MAY BRING ENHANCED TROPICAL MOISTURE TO THE REGION.
BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC,
STRETCHING BACK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY CONSISTENT WITH THE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FIELD
AND DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE. IN ALASKA, ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE STATE. IN HAWAII, TOOLS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 10% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 30% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED
ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 20%
OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: BELOW-AVERAGE, 2 OUT OF 5. DUE TO
FAIR AGREEMENT IN THE MODEL HEIGHT PATTERN AT THE ONSET OF THE PERIOD BUT
INCREASED UNCERTAINTY DUE TO CHANGES FROM YESTERDAY’S FORECAST AND EVOLUTION OF
THE PATTERN.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 05 - 11 2025
A BROAD MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST
ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC, AS THIS FEATURE HAS RETROGRADED SIGNIFICANTLY
RELATIVE TO YESTERDAY. POSITIVE ANOMALIES NEAR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST HAVE
DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY RELATIVE TO PRIOR FORECASTS. AS SUCH, THE MID-LEVEL
TROUGH ACROSS THE WEST IS ALSO LESS AMPLIFIED RELATIVE TO YESTERDAY. THE GEFS
AND ECENS ARE LARGELY OUT OF PHASE ACROSS THE WEST AND THE CORRESPONDING
MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FORECAST FEATURES NEAR NORMAL HEIGHTS AND ZONAL FLOW.
ALTHOUGH, THIS IS UNLIKELY TO FULLY COME TO FRUITION. MID-LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS
MORE FAVORED ACROSS THE EAST DURING WEEK-2 WITH THE STRONGEST ANOMALIES IN THE
NORTHEAST. HOWEVER, MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS IS FORECAST TO HAVE
MINORLY POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES, AND MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW. IN ALASKA,
NORTH OF THE MID-LATITUDE RIDGE IN THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC, WEAK TROUGHING
REMAINS FAVORED OVER THE MAINLAND, HOWEVER, POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES
ARE BUILDING INTO THE ALEUTIANS.
AS MIGHT BE EXPECTED BY THE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT PATTERN, THERE IS LARGE
UNCERTAINTY IN BOTH THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS FOR THE WEEK-2
PERIOD. THE GEFS REFORECAST AND SHORT-TERM BIAS-CORRECTED TOOLS LEAN TOWARDS
COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WEST COAST, WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL
ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST AND PLAINS. MEANWHILE, THE ECENS BASED TOOLS SUPPORT
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTERIOR WEST. THOSE LARGE DIFFERENCES LEAD TO
NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES BEING FAVORED ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST INTO THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PLAINS WITH NEITHER MODEL BEING ENTIRELY CONSISTENT. FURTHER EAST,
THE STRONGEST CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EAST AND GULF COASTS BENEATH POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT
ANOMALIES. IN ALASKA, BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORED WITH WEAK
TROUGHING OVER THE STATE. IN HAWAII, ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORED
WITH PROBABILITIES CONSISTENT WITH YESTERDAY.
THERE IS A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE WEEK-2 PRECIPITATION FORECAST.
THERE ARE GENERALLY WEAK AND CONFLICTING SIGNALS IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE FOR THE
PERIOD. OVERALL, MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS IS SLIGHTLY TILTED
TOWARDS ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IN AGREEMENT WITH THE REFORECAST GUIDANCE.
THE STRONGEST CHANCES ARE ACROSS THE UPPER-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WESTERN GREAT
LAKES WHERE TOOLS HAVE A MODEST AMOUNT OF AGREEMENT. THIS REGION WOULD BE
CONSISTENT WITH WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH OR DISSIPATING ENERGY PROGRESSING
EASTWARD FROM THE ROCKIES AND HELPING TO BRING SOME POSSIBLE SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPMENT. THERE ARE SLIGHTLY ENHANCED ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION SIGNALS FOR
PARTS OF FLORIDA WHERE A WAVE OF ENERGY MAY BRING ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION TO
THE REGION. NEAR-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED ACROSS PARTS OF NEW
ENGLAND. IN ALASKA ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
COASTAL REGIONS OF ALASKA. WHILE IN HAWAII, ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS
FAVORED CONSISTENT WITH THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 10% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 30% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED
ON DAY 11, 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 30%
OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: BELOW AVERAGE, 1 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
POOR AGREEMENT AMONG THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE AND A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN.
FORECASTER: RYAN BOLT
NOTES:
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN
THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS
THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE,
"A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE
VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN,
"A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES
FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A
GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL
(I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES
A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
JUNE 19.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19860524 - 20040602 - 19730509 - 19730523 - 20030525
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19860523 - 19730509 - 19820517 - 19730524 - 20030526
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUN 03 - 07 2025
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF B A
SRN CALIF B N IDAHO B A NEVADA B A
W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B A WYOMING B A
UTAH B A ARIZONA B N COLORADO N A
NEW MEXICO N B N DAKOTA N A S DAKOTA N A
NEBRASKA N A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A N KENTUCKY A N
TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A N NEW YORK A B
VERMONT A B NEW HAMP A B MAINE A B
MASS A B CONN A B RHODE IS A B
PENN A B NEW JERSEY A B W VIRGINIA A B
MARYLAND A B DELAWARE A B VIRGINIA A B
N CAROLINA A B S CAROLINA N B GEORGIA A N
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE B A
AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN B A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUN 05 - 11 2025
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N N OREGON N B NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO N N NEVADA N B
W MONTANA N B E MONTANA N N WYOMING N N
UTAH N B ARIZONA N N COLORADO N N
NEW MEXICO N N N DAKOTA N A S DAKOTA N A
NEBRASKA N A KANSAS N A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A N
MINNESOTA N A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A N
VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N
MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N
PENN A N NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE B N
AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN B N AK INT BSN B N
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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