065
FXUS01 KWBC 290740
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
339 AM EDT THU MAY 29 2025
VALID 12Z THU MAY 29 2025 - 12Z SAT MAY 31 2025
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC, CENTRAL APPALACHIANS, AND OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY AND THE
SOUTHEAST TO THE MID-ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY...
A WAVE OF LOW-PRESSURE SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND WILL MOVE EASTWARD OUT
OVER THE ATLANTIC BY FRIDAY. A SECOND WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
GEORGIAN BAY, ONTARIO, CANADA, WILL DISSIPATE BY FRIDAY MORNING.
THE AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DRAW MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC OVER
THE NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES, PRODUCING RAIN OVER PARTS OF
THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY.
A THIRD WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON
THURSDAY, MOVES NORTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC BY
FRIDAY EVENING, THEN MOVES OVER NEW ENGLAND BY SATURDAY. MOISTURE
WILL SURGE NORTHWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AS UPPER-LEVEL
ENERGY MOVES ACROSS TEXAS, PRODUCING SHOWERS AND SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL
2/5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS, HAIL, AND A FEW TORNADOES. HOWEVER, THERE IS AN INCREASED
RISK OF HAIL, TWO INCHES OR GREATER, OVER THE REGION.
SIMILARLY, MOISTURE WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE GULF OF
AMERICA AS ANOTHER AREA OF UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY MOVES ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST, CREATING SHOWERS AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THEREFORE,
THE SPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FREQUENT
LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND A FEW
TORNADOES.
MOREOVER, AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS. ON THURSDAY, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.
ON FRIDAY, AS THE THIRD WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
MOVES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP WITH HEAVY RAIN OVER PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY, CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS, AND MID-ATLANTIC. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A
SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE
OHIO VALLEY, CENTRAL APPALACHIANS, AND MID-ATLANTIC FROM FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE
MAINLY LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS, ROADS,
SMALL STREAMS, AND LOW-LYING AREAS THE MOST VULNERABLE.
THE COLD FRONT, ASSOCIATED WITH THE THIRD WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE,
WILL CAUSE SHOWERS AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
SOUTHEAST AND THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS
ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST TO THE MID-ATLANTIC FROM FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND
A FEW TORNADOES.
FURTHERMORE, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF
THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY, AND RAIN WILL ALSO FALL
OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST.
MEANWHILE, A FRONT OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY MOVES
EASTWARD TO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE GREAT BASIN BY
FRIDAY MORNING, DISSIPATING BY FRIDAY EVENING. THE SYSTEM WILL
PRODUCE SCATTERED RAIN OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHWEST, EXPANDING INTO
THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION BY THURSDAY EVENING. OVERNIGHT
THURSDAY, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES. IN ADDITION, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. MOREOVER, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES.
ELSEWHERE, AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL SLOWLY
MOVE SOUTHWESTWARD OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO BY FRIDAY EVENING, AND
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE
GREAT BASIN ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE LOW HUNDREDS, PROMPTING HEAT
ADVISORIES AND EXTREME HEAT WARNINGS OVER PARTS OF CALIFORNIA ON
FRIDAY.
ZIEGENFELDER
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
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