352
FXUS02 KWBC 301823
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
223 PM EDT FRI MAY 30 2025
VALID 12Z MON JUN 02 2025 - 12Z FRI JUN 06 2025
..OVERVIEW
POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC AS WELL AS
OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL FAVOR SPLIT FLOW OVER THE CONUS NEXT WEEK
WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES AND CLOSED LOWS MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW.
THERE REMAINS POTENTIAL FOR A CUTOFF UPPER LOW NEAR OR EAST OF THE
EAST COAST BENEATH CANADIAN RIDGING AND WEST OF A STRONG UPPER HIGH
IN THE MIDDLE OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THE PATTERN SUPPORTS A WEST-
TO-EAST MOVEMENT OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH
WARM/VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM ALONG WITH SOME
HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
..GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
THE 00/06Z GUIDANCE OFFERED REASONABLE CLUSTERING THROUGH THE
PERIOD SUCH THAT A CONSENSUS APPROACH WAS REASONABLE OVER AT LEAST
AREAS WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS. FOR THE EAST COAST, THE 00Z ECMWF
WAS NOTABLY FARTHER WEST AND CLOSED OFF WITH AN UPPER LOW VS THE
FARTHER EAST UKMET/CANADIAN AND STILL FARTHER EAST GFS. THE AIFS
AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN WERE CLOSER TO THE AND DYNAMICAL CONSENSUS
WHICH WAS FARTHER OFFSHORE. QUICK LOOK AT THE 12Z GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO FAVOR AN UPPER LOW ALONG OR EAST OF 70W (OFFSHORE THE
MID-ATLANTIC) OR EVEN CLOSER TO BERMUDA.
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
FOR THE MON-TUES PERIOD, A HEAVY RAIN THREAT EXISTS ALONG/AHEAD OF
A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH/INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS TO THE MIDWEST/MID-MS VALLEY. A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL IS MAINTAINED THROUGH THESE AREAS. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE
EASTWARD AND SOUTHWARD ALONG WITH THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT (INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY/MID-SOUTH) BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG BOTH THE EAST AND WEST COASTS
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FLORIDA WHICH MAY SEE MORE APPRECIABLE
RAINFALL OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PORTIONS IN THE VICINITY OF A
DYING OCEANIC BOUNDARY. SOME MOUNTAIN AREAS OF WYOMING MAY SEE A
FEW INCHES OF SNOW AS COLDER AIR COMES IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN US AS SUMMER MAKES
A DECISIVE START/RETURN IN STARK CONTRAST TO THE STRETCH OF COOL
TEMPERATURES THE PAST WEEK OR SO. HIGHS INTO THE 80S/90S WILL POSE
A MODERATE HEATRISK THREAT TO SOME REGIONS -- TAKE PRECAUTIONS IN
THE HEAT ESPECIALLY IF YOU ARE NOT YET ACCLIMATED TO THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES. FARTHER SOUTH, AREAS OF SOUTH TEXAS WILL SEE MORE
DAYS OF HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 90S AND LOW 100S WITH LOW
PROBABILITIES (20-40%) OF REACHING HEAT INDEX VALUES OF AT LEAST
110F. MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT,
STARTING IN THE ROCKIES ON MONDAY THEN INTO THE PLAINS THEREAFTER,
BUT MODERATING WITH TIME. MUCH OF THE WEST WILL SEE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE WEEK.
FRACASSO
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST (QPF), EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK (ERO), WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK (WWO) PROBABILITIES, HEAT
INDICES, AND KEY MESSAGES CAN BE ACCESSED FROM:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
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