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FXUS06 KWBC 301902
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT FRI MAY 30 2025
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 05 - 09 2025
A POSITIVE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER IS FORECAST OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA
AND THE WESTERN CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS) IN THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. ECMWF, GEFS AND
CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEANS PREDICT NEAR ZERO 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS, WITH A WEAK TROUGH PASSING THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE PERIOD.
A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS IN THE 6-10 DAY ENSEMBLE MEAN
FORECASTS. POSITIVE 500-HPA ANOMALIES PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN CONUS IN THE
MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND OF MODELS, CENTERED TO THE NORTH OF NOVA SCOTIA. MID-LEVEL
HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE GREATEST OVER THE NORTHEAST AND PACIFIC NORTHWEST IN
TODAY’S MODEL ENSEMBLE MEANS.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR ALASKA MOSTLY UNDER NEGATIVE 500-HPA
HEIGHT ANOMALIES, SUPPORTED BY MOST DYNAMICAL MODEL TEMPERATURE FORECASTS.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MOST OF THE WESTERN CONUS FROM THE
PACIFIC COAST TO THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS, EXCLUDING PARTS OF WASHINGTON AND THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES, UNDER PREDICTED POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES. A WEAK
MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS SUPPORTS NEAR-TO-BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST AREAS OF THE INTERIOR CENTRAL CONUS DURING THE 6-10
DAY PERIOD. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS, SUPPORTED BY ECMWF TEMPERATURE FORECASTS AND THE TEMPERATURE
CONSOLIDATION. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE FAVORED FOR PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS, SOUTHERN TEXAS, AND FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EASTWARD
TO THE ATLANTIC COAST, UNDER POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES. THE TEMPERATURE
CONSOLIDATION FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS, EXCLUDING SOUTHEASTERN AREAS OF THE BIG ISLAND.
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR MAINLAND AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA, UNDER
A TROUGH AND SUPPORTED BY DYNAMICAL MODEL PRECIPITATION FORECASTS FROM THE
GEFS, ECMWF AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEANS. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED
FOR THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS, UNDER PREDICTED POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES.
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS,
EXCLUDING CLIMATOLOGICALLY ARID AREAS OF THE WEST, CONSISTENT WITH MOST
DYNAMICAL MODEL FORECASTS. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS HAWAII,
CONSISTENT WITH THE PRECIPITATION CONSOLIDATION.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 45% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT-AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS ON THE MEAN MID-LEVEL HEIGHT PATTERN, WITH SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN MID-LEVEL HEIGHT AND SURFACE TEMPERATURE FORECASTS FOR THE
CENTRAL CONUS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 07 - 13 2025
A BROAD MID-LEVEL RIDGE WITH AMPLIFIED POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES IS
FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC EXTENDING INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS IN WEEK
2. POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS IN
THE WEEK-2 PERIOD, WITH NEAR ZERO ANOMALIES OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS AND
MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST. POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OF 30 TO GREATER THAN
90 METERS PERSIST OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS SOUTHWARD AS FAR AS THE CAROLINAS
IN THE MANUAL BLEND FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS, MAINLAND
AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA DURING WEEK 2, SUPPORTED BY MOST DYNAMICAL MODEL
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS AND THE CONSOLIDATION. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF THE WESTERN CONUS FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD, SUPPORTED BY
MOST DYNAMICAL MODEL TEMPERATURE FORECASTS AND THE CONSOLIDATION. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR PARTS OF THE GREAT PLAINS, UNDER WEAK TROUGHING
AND SUPPORTED PRIMARILY BY THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE BASED TEMPERATURE TOOLS. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
CONUS IN WEEK 2, SUPPORTED BY THE TEMPERATURE CONSOLIDATION. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR HAWAII IN WEEK 2, CONSISTENT WITH THE TEMPERATURE
CONSOLIDATION.
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR MAINLAND AND SOUTHEAST
ALASKA, SUPPORTED BY MOST DYNAMICAL MODEL FORECASTS FOR THE WEEK-2 PERIOD.
BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS,
UNDER PREDICTED POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION
IS FAVORED OVER MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS, EXCLUDING CLIMATOLOGICALLY
ARID AREAS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AND CALIFORNIA, SUPPORTED BY MOST
DYNAMICAL MODELS AND THE CONSOLIDATION. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED
FOR ALL OF HAWAII IN WEEK 2, CONSISTENT WITH THE CONSOLIDATION.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 45% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: BELOW AVERAGE, 2 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT ON THE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FORECAST, OFFSET BY WEAK SIGNALS
IN THE PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURE TOOLS FOR MANY AREAS.
FORECASTER: D COLLINS
NOTES:
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN
THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS
THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE,
"A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE
VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN,
"A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES
FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A
GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL
(I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES
A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
JUNE 19.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20030524 - 19860524 - 19820521 - 19760511 - 19860519
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19860523 - 20030525 - 19730510 - 19820518 - 19890612
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUN 05 - 09 2025
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A B NEVADA A B
W MONTANA N B E MONTANA N N WYOMING N A
UTAH A A ARIZONA A N COLORADO N A
NEW MEXICO N A N DAKOTA N N S DAKOTA N A
NEBRASKA N A KANSAS B A OKLAHOMA B A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A A IOWA N A MISSOURI N A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE B A
AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN B A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUN 07 - 13 2025
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A B NEVADA A N
W MONTANA A B E MONTANA N N WYOMING N A
UTAH A A ARIZONA A N COLORADO N A
NEW MEXICO N A N DAKOTA N N S DAKOTA N A
NEBRASKA B A KANSAS B A OKLAHOMA B A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA N A IOWA N A MISSOURI N A
ARKANSAS N A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS N A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE B A
AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN B A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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