952
FXUS02 KWBC 310645
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
245 AM EDT SAT MAY 31 2025
VALID 12Z TUE JUN 03 2025 - 12Z SAT JUN 07 2025
..OVERVIEW
POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC AS WELL AS
OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL FAVOR SPLIT FLOW OVER THE CONUS NEXT WEEK
WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES AND CLOSED LOWS MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW. THE
PATTERN SUPPORTS A WEST-TO-EAST MOVEMENT OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM
THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH WARM/VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM ALONG WITH SOME HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING POTENTIAL.
..GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
THE LATEST SUITE OF MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICT REASONABLE CLUSTERING
FOR MOST OF THE COUNTRY THAT ALLOWED FOR A CONSENSUS APPROACH. AN
OFFSHORE SOLUTION WAS THE FAVORITE FOR THE EASTERN STATES WHILE AN
UPPER TROUGH TRACKS FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE CENTRAL STATES. THIS
FORECAST WAS BASED ON A MULTI-MODEL BLEND OF THE 12Z
CMC/UKMET/ECWMF AND 18/00Z GFS INITIALLY BEFORE ADDING THE EC AND
GEFS ENSEMBLE MEANS INTO THE MIX.
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK STARTS WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, WITH SOME HAVING THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL. WPC MAINTAINED A MARGINAL RISK OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THROUGH THESE AREAS THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE FRONT
ADVANCES EAST/SOUTHWARD ALONG WITH THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT (INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/MID-SOUTH) BY THE END OF
NEXT WEEK. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG BOTH THE EAST AND
WEST COASTS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FLORIDA WHICH MAY SEE MORE
APPRECIABLE RAINFALL OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PORTIONS IN THE
VICINITY OF A DYING OCEANIC BOUNDARY. SOME MOUNTAIN AREAS OF
WYOMING MAY SEE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW AS COLDER AIR COMES IN BEHIND
THE FRONT.
NEAR NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STATES. WITH DAILY TEMPERATURES IN
THE 80S/90S A MODERATE HEATRISK THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FOR
SOME REGIONS-- TAKE PRECAUTIONS IN THE HEAT ESPECIALLY IF YOU ARE
NOT YET ACCLIMATED TO THE WARMER TEMPERATURES. PARTS OF SOUTH
TEXAS WILL SEE MORE DAYS OF HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 90S AND LOW 100S
WITH LOW PROBABILITIES (20-40%) OF REACHING HEAT INDEX VALUES OF AT
LEAST 110F. MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT, STARTING IN THE ROCKIES ON MONDAY THEN INTO THE PLAINS
THEREAFTER, BUT MODERATING WITH TIME. MUCH OF THE WEST WILL SEE
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE
WEEK.
CAMPBELL/FRACASSO
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST (QPF), EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK (ERO), WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK (WWO) PROBABILITIES, HEAT
INDICES, AND KEY MESSAGES CAN BE ACCESSED FROM:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
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