190
FXUS02 KWBC 311852
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
252 PM EDT SAT MAY 31 2025
VALID 12Z TUE JUN 03 2025 - 12Z SAT JUN 07 2025
..OVERVIEW
PERSISTENT RIDING IN THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC AND INCREASING
RIDGING IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL FAVOR A BROAD POSITIVELY
TILTED TROUGH IN BETWEEN THAT STRETCHES FROM CENTRAL CANADA THROUGH
THE SOUTHWEST TO THE FAR EASTERN PACIFIC SUBTROPICS. THE BROAD
TROUGH SUPPORTS PROGRESSIVE SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW. THE
WETTEST AREAS SHOULD BE IN THE MIDWEST AND PLAINS.
..GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
THE LATEST SUITE OF MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICT REASONABLE CLUSTERING
FOR MOST OF THE COUNTRY THAT ALLOWED FOR A CONSENSUS APPROACH. FOR
FRONTS, PRESSURES, TO SOME DEGREE QPF/POPS, AND WINDS, THIS
FORECAST WAS BASED ON A MULTI- MODEL BLEND OF THE 00Z CMC/UKMET/ECWMF
AND 06Z GFS INITIALLY BEFORE ADDING THE EC AND GEFS ENSEMBLE MEANS
INTO THE MIX. OTHER FIELDS WERE DERIVED PRIMARILY FROM THE 13Z NBM.
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK STARTS WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, WITH SOME PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL. WPC
ADDED SLIGHT RISK AREAS FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL/FLASH FLOODING
ACROSS FOR DAYS 4-5/TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY FOR PORTIONS OF
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS WHERE ROUGHLY 3-7" OF AREAL AVERAGED
RAIN IS EXPLICITLY FORECAST, AND IN AND NEAR THE IOWA/ILLINOIS/
MISSOURI BORDER JUNCTION FOR DAY 4/TUESDAY IN A REGION WHERE LOCAL
AMOUNTS IN THE 3-5" RANGE ARE POSSIBLE. FOR AREAS NEAR THE
IOWA/ILLINOIS BORDER, THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT WOULD BE PRIMARILY IN
URBAN AREAS. THE FRONT ADVANCES EAST/SOUTHWARD ALONG WITH THE HEAVY
RAIN THREAT (INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY/MID- SOUTH) BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ALONG BOTH THE EAST AND WEST COASTS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
FLORIDA WHICH MAY SEE MORE APPRECIABLE RAINFALL OVER THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS IN THE VICINITY OF A DYING OCEANIC BOUNDARY, WHERE A
MARGINAL RISK AREA FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL/FLASH FLOODING WAS ADDED
FOR DAY 4/TUESDAY. SOME MOUNTAIN AREAS OF WYOMING MAY SEE A FEW
INCHES OF SNOW AS COLDER AIR COMES IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
NEAR NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN STATES. WITH DAILY TEMPERATURES IN
THE 80S/90S A MODERATE HEATRISK THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FOR
SOME REGIONS-- TAKE PRECAUTIONS IN THE HEAT SUCH AS INCREASED WATER
INTAKE AND MORE TIME IN AIR CONDITIONED AREAS TO AVOID HEAT
EXHAUSTION AND HEAT STROKE. PARTS OF SOUTH TEXAS WILL SEE MORE
DAYS OF HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 90S AND LOW 100S WITH LOW
PROBABILITIES (20-40%) OF REACHING HEAT INDEX VALUES OF AT LEAST
110F. MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT,
STARTING IN THE ROCKIES ON MONDAY THEN INTO THE PLAINS THEREAFTER,
BUT MODERATING WITH TIME. MUCH OF THE WEST WILL SEE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE WEEK.
ROTH
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST (QPF), EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK (ERO), WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK (WWO) PROBABILITIES, HEAT
INDICES, AND KEY MESSAGES CAN BE ACCESSED FROM:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
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