331
FXUS01 KWBC 311911
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
311 PM EDT SAT MAY 31 2025
VALID 00Z SUN JUN 01 2025 - 00Z TUE JUN 03 2025
...MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING
CONTINUES INTO THIS EVENING FOR INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND...
...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO REACH THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN THE FOUR CORNERS MONDAY MORNING
WITH A RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING...
...A ROUND OF RAIN EXPECTED FOR THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH GUSTY WINDS...
...STORM CHANCES SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY TO THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY...
AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR LATE MAY CONTINUES TO
CHURN NORTHWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON (SATURDAY)
ACCOMPANIED BY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. PLENTIFUL
MOISTURE LEADING TO LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS (RAIN RATES OF 1"/HR)
AND REPEATED ROUNDS OF STORMS FOCUSED THROUGH PORTIONS OF VERMONT
AND NEW HAMPSHIRE MAY LEAD TO SOME SCATTERED INSTANCES OF FLASH
FLOODING, WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (LEVEL 2/4) IN
EFFECT. STORMS WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD FROM CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND
INTO MAINE THROUGH THIS EVENING AND SHOULD COME TO AN END FOR ALL
LOCATIONS BY SUNDAY MORNING. FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
MORE BROADLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC, LOWER
GREAT LAKES, AND OHIO VALLEY WILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE SUNDAY
UNDER AN ASSOCIATED UPPER-LOW AND FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT PASSAGE,
RANGING FROM THE 50S AND 60S IN THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST AND 60S AND
70S ELSEWHERE. HIGHS WILL CLIMB CLOSER TO AVERAGE AND BE IN THE
70S FOR MOST BY MONDAY AS THE UPPER-LOW DEPARTS THE REGION.
THE UPPER-RIDGE BRINGING VERY HOT, SUMMER-LIKE AND RECORD HEAT TO
THE WEST SATURDAY WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD ON SUNDAY, WITH
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S AND 90S STRETCHING
FROM THE INTERIOR WEST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE HEAT WILL
SHIFT INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST ON MONDAY WHILE AN UPPER
TROUGH/ACCOMPANYING SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE
INTERIOR WEST BRINGS MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS (HIGHS IN THE 60S) AND MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ELSEWHERE IN THE GREAT BASIN AND ALONG THE WEST COAST
(70S AND 80S). SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ALONG WITH SOME GUSTY
WINDS, WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MEANWHILE, FURTHER
SOUTH, MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ALVIN WILL FLOW
NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY BRINGING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. SOME SCATTERED
INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA WHERE A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS
IN PLACE. THE STORMS WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION MONDAY WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE. BELOW
AVERAGE HIGHS ARE EXPECTED, WITH 80S TO LOW 90S IN THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST SUNDAY AND 60S ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY MONDAY.
AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ACCOMPANYING SURFACE COLD FRONT
MOVING SOUTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL TRIGGER A
ROUND OF STORMS THIS EVENING. SOME STORMS MAY BE SEVERE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN KANSAS AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA, WITH A SLIGHT
RISK FROM THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER (LEVEL 2/5) FOR THE THREAT
OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE
SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN TEXAS SUNDAY, WITH ANOTHER SLIGHT
RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IN EFFECT FOR THE THREAT OF VERY LARGE HAIL
AND SOME DAMAGING WINDS. THEN, ON MONDAY, ANOMALOUSLY HIGH
MOISTURE WILL RETURN NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
UPPER-TROUGH/COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND
INTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO FOCUS ALONG THE COLD FRONT, WITH SLIGHT
RISKS IN EFFECT FOR BOTH SEVERE WEATHER AND EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL/FLASH FLOODING, GENERALLY FROM EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
SOUTHWEST THROUGH CENTRAL/WESTERN NEBRASKA AND INTO SOUTHEASTERN
WYOMING/NORTHEASTERN COLORADO. FORECAST HIGHS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL BE
AROUND TO ABOVE AVERAGE THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, WITH 80S AND 90S
FORECAST.
ELSEWHERE, DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE FOR
FLORIDA. AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSING OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL
LEAD TO SOME SCATTERED STORM CHANCES SUNDAY. FORECAST HIGHS SUNDAY
AND MONDAY ARE GENERALLY AROUND AVERAGE, WITH MOSTLY 80S EXPECTED.
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