815
FXUS02 KWBC 010642
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
242 AM EDT SUN JUN 1 2025
VALID 12Z WED JUN 04 2025 - 12Z SUN JUN 08 2025
..OVERVIEW
WITH RIDGING IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN AND
BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC MUCH OF THE CONUS WILL BE UNDER
A BROAD TROUGH. THIS PATTERN WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR MULTIPLE
PROGRESSIVE SYSTEMS TO PASS THROUGH THE FLOW AND FOCUSING THE BULK
OF THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND PLAINS.
..GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
THE MOST RECENT MODEL RUNS ARE MOSTLY AGREEABLE WITH THE OVERALL
PATTERN EVOLUTION THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD THEREFORE THE
FORECAST WAS BASED OFF OF A CONSENSUS APPROACH. FOR FRONTS,
PRESSURES, TO SOME DEGREE QPF/POPS, AND WINDS, THIS FORECAST WAS
BASED ON A MULTI-MODEL BLEND OF THE 12Z CMC/UKMET/ECMWF AND 18/00Z
GFS INITIALLY BEFORE ADDING THE EC AND GEFS ENSEMBLE MEANS INTO
THE MIX. OTHER FIELDS WERE DERIVED PRIMARILY FROM THE 1Z NBM.
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL BE WET FOR THE START OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM ADVANCES THROUGH THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SCATTERED TO
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH
SOME OF THE EMBEDDED STORMS POTENTIALLY PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL.
THERE IS A GROWING SIGNAL FOR 3 TO 7 INCHES TO FOCUS ACROSS TEXAS
AND OKLAHOMA AND FOR 3 TO 5 INCHES FOR IOWA, ILLINOIS AND MISSOURI
WPC MAINTAINED THE SLIGHT RISK AREA FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL/FLASH
FLOODING ACROSS FOR DAY 4 AND ADDED SLIGHT RISK FOR THE NEW DAY 5
PERIOD FOR MUCH OF THE SAME AREA IN ADDITION TO WESTERN ARKANSAS.
AREAS NEAR THE IOWA/ILLINOIS BORDER, THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT WOULD
BE PRIMARILY IN URBAN AREAS. THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHIELD OF
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST/SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/MID-SOUTH BY THE END OF NEXT
WEEK.
FOR THE WEST AND EAST COASTS DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNDER
THE RIDGE. FLORIDA WHICH MAY SEE MORE APPRECIABLE RAINFALL OVER
THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS IN THE VICINITY OF A DYING OCEANIC BOUNDARY,
WHERE A MARGINAL RISK AREA FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL/FLASH FLOODING
WAS ADDED FOR DAY 4/TUESDAY. SOME MOUNTAIN AREAS OF WYOMING MAY SEE
A FEW INCHES OF SNOW AS COLDER AIR COMES IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
WITH TIME, TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WHICH WILL ELEVATE THE HEAT RISK THREAT
LEVEL TO MODERATE. DAILY MAXIMUMS IN THE 80S/90S MAY INCREASE HEAT
STRESS FOR SOME REGIONS-- TAKE PRECAUTIONS IN THE HEAT SUCH AS
INCREASED WATER INTAKE AND MORE TIME IN AIR CONDITIONED AREAS TO
AVOID HEAT EXHAUSTION AND HEAT STROKE. PARTS OF SOUTH TEXAS WILL
SEE MORE DAYS OF HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 90S AND LOW 100S WITH LOW
PROBABILITIES (20-40%) OF REACHING HEAT INDEX VALUES OF AT LEAST
110F. MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT,
STARTING IN THE ROCKIES ON MONDAY THEN INTO THE PLAINS THEREAFTER,
BUT MODERATING WITH TIME. MUCH OF THE WEST WILL SEE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE WEEK.
CAMPBELL/ROTH
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST (QPF), EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK (ERO), WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK (WWO) PROBABILITIES, HEAT
INDICES, AND KEY MESSAGES CAN BE ACCESSED FROM:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
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