428
FXUS02 KWBC 020647
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
247 AM EDT MON JUN 2 2025
VALID 12Z THU JUN 05 2025 - 12Z MON JUN 09 2025
..OVERVIEW
STRONG UPPER RIDGING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC BENEATH AN
UPPER LOW/TROUGHING OVER ALASKA WILL PROMOTE A STRONG JET INTO
WESTERN CANADA AND SPLIT FLOW OVER THE CONUS LATER THIS WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. OVER THE EAST, UPPER RIDGING WILL BE SPLIT BETWEEN
ATLANTIC CANADA AND SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA WITH ADDITIONAL RIDGING
ACROSS MEXICO. MUCH OF THE COUNTRY WILL OBSERVE WARMING
TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MIDWEST.
..GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS HAD DECENT AGREEMENT IN
THE LATEST SUITE OF GUIDANCE EARLY ON AND THEN ENCOUNTERED
INCREASING SPREAD WITHIN THE CLUSTER WITH THE SYSTEM EXITING THE
GULF OF ALASKA. THE DEGREE OF SPREAD WAS STILL WITHIN REASON
UTILIZE A CONSENSUS APPROACH WITH A HEAVIER LEAN TOWARD THE
ENSEMBLE MEANS FOR THE LATER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOST UNCERTAIN DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN DAY-TO-
DAY CONVECTION.
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FOCUS ALONG A SLOW-MOVING
FRONT THAT WILL STRETCH FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO TEXAS. GULF
MOISTURE POOLING OVER THE REGION WILL HELP PRIME THE ENVIRONMENT
FOR EMBEDDED HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL, ESPECIALLY FOR PARTS OF TEXAS
AND OKLAHOMA. WE HAVE MAINTAINED A BROAD MARGINAL RISK OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING FOR THIS REGION WITH A
SMALLER (AND LESS CERTAIN) SLIGHT RISK WHERE HEAVIER RAINFALL IS
MORE LIKELY AT THIS POINT. HOWEVER, THIS WILL LIKELY BE SUBJECT TO
CHANGE AS LEAD TIME DECREASES.
RAIN WILL SPREAD INTO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONT ADVANCES EASTWARD. THE SOUTHERN TAIL
OF THE BOUNDARY WILL LIFT AS A WARM FRONT AS HEIGHTS RISE OVER
MEXICO/SOUTHERN TEXAS, ALLOWING THE HEAVIER RAIN POTENTIAL TO MOVE
BOTH NORTHWARD (INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS) BUT ALSO SPILL EASTWARD
INTO THE MID-SOUTH.
HEAVY RAINFALL MAY IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THANKS TO
A LINGERING/WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTHWARD BENEATH A
WEAKNESS ALOFT. MOISTURE MAY STAY OFFSHORE AND UNCERTAINTY IS
HIGH, BUT THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL ALONG
THE COAST. THE MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WAS MAINTAINED
AND EXPANDED A BIT FURTHER SOUTH TO INCLUDE PARTS OF NORTHEAST
FLORIDA.
INITIALLY, BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
ROCKIES AND PLAINS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AS THE
FRONTAL PROGRESSES, TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE BY THE END
OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. SOME OF THE WARMEST YEAR TO
DATE TEMPERATURES WILL BE ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S. WITH
DAILY READINGS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S THERE WILL
BE A MODERATE LEVEL OF HEATRISK. CARE SHOULD BE TAKEN TO PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM THE HOTTEST PART OF THE DAY. AREAS OF SOUTH TEXAS
WILL SEE RISING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND, CRESTING 105F BY NEXT WEEKEND ALONG THE RIO GRANDE. THIS
MAY PUSH HEAT INDEX VALUES OVER 110F.
HEAT SAFETY -- TAKE PRECAUTIONS SUCH AS INCREASED WATER INTAKE AND
MORE TIME IN AIR CONDITIONED AREAS TO AVOID HEAT EXHAUSTION AND
HEAT STROKE. SEE WEATHER.GOV/HEAT FOR MORE INFORMATION ON SAFETY
TIPS AND RESOURCES.
CAMPBELL/FRACASSO
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST (QPF), EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK (ERO), WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK (WWO) PROBABILITIES, HEAT
INDICES, AND KEY MESSAGES CAN BE ACCESSED FROM:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
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