874
FXUS01 KWBC 020823
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
400 AM EDT MON JUN 02 2025
VALID 12Z MON JUN 02 2025 - 12Z WED JUN 04 2025
...MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND
FOUR CORNERS TODAY WITH FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE...
...HEAVY RAIN, SEVERE WEATHER, AND FLOODING THREAT DEVELOP TODAY
OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL PLAINS, SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
PLAINS AND TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST ON TUESDAY...
...TROPICAL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FOCUSED ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA AND THEN SPREAD NORTHWARD THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...
AS AN EXPANDING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SETTLES INTO THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE U.S., UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE EXPANDING ACROSS THE
WESTERN U.S. TOWARD THE CENTRAL U.S. THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THERE ARE TWO PIECES OF INGREDIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE WEST. A STRONG COLD FRONT ORIGINATING
FROM THE PACIFIC CONTINUES TO SHOVE THE RECENT SPELL OF HEAT IN
THE WESTERN U.S. INTO THE MID-SECTION OF THE COUNTRY. MEANWHILE,
A BATCH OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AHEAD OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST EARLY THIS MONDAY MORNING AND IS
FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THE FOUR CORNER AND THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
ROCKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. LOCALLY TERRAIN-ENHANCED
RAINFALL COULD POSE A RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING FOR THESE AREAS.
THE STRONG FRONT ARRIVING FROM THE NORTH WILL THEN COLLIDE AND
INTERACT WITH THE MOISTURE ARRIVING FROM THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
ROCKIES TO PRODUCE A AROUND OF HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE MID-SECTION OF THE COUNTRY LATER TODAY INTO MUCH OF
TUESDAY. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL FOR TODAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTH-CENTRAL PLAINS WHERE A LOW PRESSURE WAVE IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP AND TRACK QUICKLY ACROSS THE REGION, REACHING INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST BY TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER
90S THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE DRASTICALLY COOLER BEHIND THE STRONG
COLD FRONT UNDER BLUSTERY NORTHERLY WINDS AS A HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM BUILDS SOUTHWARD FROM WESTERN CANADA. MEANWHILE, SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE ACTIVE FARTHER SOUTH AHEAD OF A DRY
LINE WHERE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING/TONIGHT.
TUESDAY WILL FIND THE STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHING FARTHER EASTWARD,
LEADING TO THE HEAVY RAIN, SEVERE WEATHER, AND FLOODING THREAT
SHIFTING INTO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS AND TOWARD THE UPPER
MIDWEST ON TUESDAY. THE TRAILING PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL THEN
DIP INTO TEXAS BY TUESDAY EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS FORMING AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT AND THE DRY LINE COULD ONCE AGAIN BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE AS THE STORMS MARCH EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT ARE
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL
LESSENING THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER AS THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES, MIDWEST AND INTO EASTERN
TEXAS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE HEAVY RAINS WILL BRING SOME
DROUGHT RELIEF TO PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL U.S. WHILE ADDITIONAL
HEAVY RAINS WILL MOVE ACROSS LOCATIONS IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHERE MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE PRECIPITATION HAS
OCCURRED OVER THE PAST MONTH. THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT, WITH HIGH WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE GREATEST THREAT
BUT WITH A LESSER THREAT FOR TORNADOES.
ACROSS THE SUNSHINE STATE, TROPICAL MOISTURE IN THE VICINITY OF A
STALLED FRONT IS FORECAST TO LINGER AND GRADUALLY BECOME MORE
FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WHERE HEAVY RAIN BECOMES POSSIBLE BY
LATER TODAY. A PIECE OF UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIVING INTO THE GULF
COAST THIS MORNING WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH THE TROPICAL
MOISTURE OVER FLORIDA. THIS INTERACTION WILL TEND TO LIFT THE
CORE OF THE MOISTURE NORTHWARD, LEADING TO THE THREAT OF HEAVY
RAIN NUDGING UP THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING, AND ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA.
KONG/ORAVEC
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