521
FXUS01 KWBC 021815
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
206 PM EDT MON JUN 02 2025
VALID 00Z TUE JUN 03 2025 - 00Z THU JUN 05 2025
...WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE WEATHER THREATS ACROSS THE MID
SECTION OF THE NATION LATE MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...
...MUCH COOLER WEATHER SETTLES INTO THE CENTRAL U.S., WHILE THE
EAST WARMS UP...
...WET WEATHER TO PERSIST ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THE NEXT FEW DAYS,
SPREADING NORTH INTO NORTH FLORIDA AND THE COASTAL SOUTHEAST BY
WEDNESDAY...
...ANOTHER ROUND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS FOR PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY...
THE VERY ACTIVE SPRING 2025 WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS WITH WIDESPREAD REGIONS OF HEAVY RAINS AND SEVERE
WEATHER THREATS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE
LOWER MISSOURI AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGIONS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE BEEN ACTIVE OVER THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT FARTHER NORTHEASTWARD LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON/MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS. A WIDESPREAD AREA OF HEAVY RAIN, FLOODING AND SEVERE
WEATHER IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THESE AREAS FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OF MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER THREAT HERE, WITH A
LESSER THREAT OF TORNADOES. THIS HEAVY RAIN, FLOODING AND SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT WILL THEN SHIFT EASTWARD DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY,
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, EARLY HOURS OF WEDNESDAY FROM THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, SOUTHWEST INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. SIMILAR TO
THE FIRST ROUND OF ACTIVE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT, THE SECOND
ROUND WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER WITH LARGE
HAIL AND HIGH WINDS THE GREATEST THREAT, WITH A LESSER THREAT FROM
TORNADOES. THE FIRST ROUND OF HEAVY RAINS WILL BRING SOME RELIEF
TO THE ONGOING MODERATE TO SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS
WESTERN TO CENTRAL KANSAS, MUCH OF NEBRASKA, FAR NORTHWEST
MISSOURI AND FAR WESTERN IOWA. THE SECOND ROUND OF HEAVY RAINS
WILL BE FALLING ACROSS AREAS THAT HAVE RECEIVED MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE
PRECIP OVER THE PAST MONTH. THIS WILL BE LEADING TO A GREATEST
THREAT OF FLOODING FROM NORTH TEXAS, ACROSS CENTRAL TO EASTERN
OKLAHOMA, EASTERN KANSAS, AND MISSOURI WHERE SOILS ARE MORE
SATURATED FROM RECENT HEAVY RAINS.
IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAIN, FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
ACROSS THE MID SECTION OF THE NATION, MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. THE AREA OF MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES MONDAY ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL BE REPLACED BY AN
INCREASINGLY LARGE AREA OF BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MID
SECTION.
WHILE TEMPERATURES COOL ACROSS THE MID-SECTION OF THE COUNTRY, THE
OPPOSITE WILL OCCUR ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE RECENT PROLONGED
PERIOD OF BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE REPLACED BY AN
INCREASING AREA OF ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID TO
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, EAST INTO NEARLY ALL OF THE EAST AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THESE REGIONS. THE EXCEPTION TO
THE ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EAST WILL BE ACROSS
FLORIDA AND THE COASTAL SOUTHEAST WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW
AVERAGE. THIS IS THE RESULT OF A DEVELOPING MID TO UPPER LEVEL
LOW FROM THE EASTERN GULF, ACROSS FLORIDA AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST
WHICH WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS. HEAVY RAINS
WILL INITIALLY BE CONCENTRATED ALONG AND SOUTH OF A STATIONARY
FRONT OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY, WHERE
LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS URBANIZED AREAS.
THIS RAIN WILL BE MUCH WELCOMED AS THIS REGION REMAINS IN SEVERE
TO EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS. THESE RAINS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO PUSH NORTHWARD WEDNESDAY INTO NORTH FLORIDA
AND THE COASTAL SOUTHEAST AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE, FORMING
ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC, MOVES
SLOWLY NORTHWARD FROM OFF THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST. PLEASE SEE
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER'S TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR
FURTHER DETAILS ON THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE.
DURING WEDNESDAY, THE SECOND IN A SERIES OF STRONG MID TO UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO PUSH FROM OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST INTO THE SOUTHWEST. WITH MOISTURE VALUES FORECAST TO REMAIN
MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE, ANOTHER ROUND OF ACTIVE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE FROM FAR
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA, ACROSS CENTRAL TO NORTHERN ARIZONA, CENTRAL
TO NORTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTHERN COLORADO, SOUTHERN UTAH AND
SOUTHERN NEVADA.
ORAVEC
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