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FXUS06 KWBC 021910
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT MON JUNE 02 2025
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 08 - 12 2025
TODAY'S ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING A 500-HPA
HEIGHT PATTERN CONSISTENT WITH THE POSITIVE PHASE OF THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION
(AO). NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST OVER MUCH OF THE HIGHER LATITUDES
OF NORTH AMERICA PUNCTUATED BY A CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHERN GREENLAND.
BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS EXTEND WESTWARD TO NORTHEASTERN ALASKA AND SOUTHWARD TO
THE GREAT LAKES ASSOCIATED WITH MEAN TROUGHS PREDICTED FOR THESE REGIONS.
CONVERSELY STRONG RIDGING IS FORECAST SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA WITH
ASSOCIATED ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS OVERSPREADING SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES (CONUS). RIDGING IS ALSO
FORECAST FARTHER TO THE EAST, WITH THE ASSOCIATED POSITIVE ANOMALY CENTER
LOCATED JUST OFF THE COAST OF ATLANTIC CANADA. A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE IS
NOTED IN THE DAILY MODEL OUTPUT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS. STRONG RIDGING EARLY
IN THE PERIOD OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO TRANSITION TO A WEAK
TROUGH BY DAY 10. DOWNSTREAM, THE TROUGH NEAR THE GREAT LAKES IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND, WHICH
FAVORS THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN, IS VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY'S MODEL SOLUTIONS.
HOWEVER, THE MEAN TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY IS STRONGER IN TODAY'S 500-HPA BLEND.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE WEST AS STRONG RIDGING
DOMINATES EARLY IN THE PERIOD. DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL CONUS
LEADS TO A SLIGHT TILT TOWARD BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CENTRAL PLAINS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY FOR
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY, SOUTHERN PLAINS, THE GULF COAST AND THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA TO THE SOUTH OF A MEAN FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A SLIGHT TILT TOWARD ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS ALSO DEPICTED ALONG THE EAST COAST, AHEAD OF THE
PREDICTED TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST. A COLDER THAN NORMAL PATTERN IS MOST LIKELY
ACROSS MOST OF ALASKA ASSOCIATED WITH ANOMALOUS TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
PART OF THE STATE. HOWEVER PROBABILITIES OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
RELATIVELY WEAKER FOR SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE STATE, NEAR THE RIDGE FORECAST
OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR HAWAII
ASSOCIATED WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE ADJACENT
PACIFIC.
AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS
NEAR THE BASE OF A TROUGH FORECAST OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL CONUS. PROBABILITIES
OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION EXCEEDS 50 PERCENT FOR PARTS OF THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY AND ADJACENT AREAS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DUE TO A
PREDICTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND POTENTIAL MOISTURE INFLUX FROM THE GULF.
ENHANCED ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES EXTEND NORTHWARD TO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES ASSOCIATED WITH A PREDICTED SURFACE LOW. STRONG RIDGING, ESPECIALLY
EARLY IN THE PERIOD FAVORS A DRY PATTERN FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND ADJACENT
AREAS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, COLUMBIA RIVER VALLEY, AND THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
A TILT TOWARD BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS ALSO INDICATED FOR SOUTHWESTERN
ALASKA UNDERNEATH MEAN RIDGING AND ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS. ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS MORE LIKELY FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE UNDERNEATH
PREDICTED CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR
HAWAII WITH MEAN MID-LEVEL TROUGHING FORECAST ACROSS THE STATE.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 20% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 50% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO GOOD
AGREEMENT AMONG TODAY’S ENSEMBLE MEANS ON THE MEAN PATTERN OFFSET BY A
TRANSITIONAL PATTERN FORECAST IN DAILY MODEL OUTPUT.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUN 10 - 16 2025
THE MEAN WEEK-2 500-HPA PATTERN FEATURES MODEST ANOMALIES ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST DOMAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A TRANSITIONAL PATTERN. THE BIGGEST EXCEPTION
IS FOR SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA WHERE STRONG RIDGING IS FORECAST TO PERSIST NEAR THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS. THERE ARE LARGE MODEL DISCREPANCIES FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND
EAST ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN MAINLAND AS THE ECMWF MEAN MAINTAINS A TROUGH MUCH
LONGER THAN THE CORRESPONDING GEFS AND CANADIAN SOLUTIONS. FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH, THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ACROSS THE WEST AND RESIDUAL
TROUGHING NEAR THE GREAT LAKES. THEREAFTER, THE PATTERN RAPIDLY CHANGES WITH A
TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WEST COAST BY DAY 10 WITH CORRESPONDING HEIGHT
RISES PREDICTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS. AN EXCEPTION TO
THE INCREASED MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS PREDICTED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS
IS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION, WHERE THE GEFS PREDICTS A WEAKNESS IN
SUBTROPICAL RIDGING. NEAR NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE GENERALLY FORECAST FOR HAWAII IN
THE SEVEN DAY MEAN 500-HPA PATTERN.
IN THE PREDICTED TRANSITIONAL PATTERN, MODESTLY ABOVE NORMAL SEVEN DAY MEAN
500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS. CORRESPONDINGLY, ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MOST OF THE CONUS. EXCEPTIONS ARE FOR MUCH
OF THE EAST-CENTRAL CONUS DUE TO A PREDICTED TROUGH EARLY IN WEEK-2 AND ALONG
THE NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE WEST COAST DUE TO INCREASED TROUGHING DURING THE
MIDDLE AND LATER PARTS OF THE PERIOD. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN MOST
LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF MAINLAND AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA AS MID-LEVEL TROUGHING IS
FORECAST TO PERSIST INTO AT LEAST EARLY WEEK-2, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
NORTHEASTERN MAINLAND. CONVERSELY, PERSISTENT RIDGING LEADS TO INCREASED
CHANCES OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE ALEUTIANS AND ALASKA
PENINSULA.
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR MOST OF THE CONUS EAST OF THE ROCKIES
DUE TO PREDICTED FRONTAL ACTIVITY EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND DUE TO THE POTENTIAL
FOR INCREASED MOISTURE FLOW FROM THE GULF. THE GEFS IS PARTICULARLY AGGRESSIVE
IN ADVECTING GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST. CHANCES OF ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION EXCEEDS 50 PERCENT FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
WHERE MODELS GENERALLY SHOW THE STRONGEST SIGNAL. NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS
GENERALLY FAVORED WEST OF THE ROCKIES AS RIDGING EARLY IN THE PERIOD WEAKENS
AND A TROUGH DEVELOPS NEAR THE WEST COAST. CYCLONIC FLOW AND NEAR TO BELOW
NORMAL HEIGHTS FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF
ALASKA. CONVERSELY, RIDGING CENTERED NEAR THE ALASKA PENINSULA SLIGHTLY FAVORS
A DRY PATTERN FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTH COAST. ENHANCED ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST ACROSS HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH A
CONSOLIDATION OF CALIBRATED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FROM THE GEFS AND ECMWF
ENSEMBLES.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 20% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 50% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: BELOW AVERAGE, 2 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
A PREDICTED TRANSITIONAL PATTERN.
FORECASTER: SCOTT H
NOTES:
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN
THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS
THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE,
"A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE
VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN,
"A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES
FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A
GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL
(I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES
A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
JUNE 19.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19510613 - 19850616 - 20080519 - 19710525 - 19990526
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19510612 - 20080518 - 19850615 - 19990526 - 19650615
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUN 08 - 12 2025
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A B NEVADA A N
W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A N WYOMING A N
UTAH A N ARIZONA A N COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA N N S DAKOTA N N
NEBRASKA N N KANSAS B A OKLAHOMA N A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA N A IOWA B A MISSOURI B A
ARKANSAS N A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN N A
ILLINOIS B A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN N A
INDIANA N A OHIO N A KENTUCKY N A
TENNESSEE N A ALABAMA N A NEW YORK A N
VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N
MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N
PENN N A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA N A
MARYLAND N A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA N A
N CAROLINA N A S CAROLINA N A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE B A
AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B N AK INT BSN B A
AK S INT B N AK SO COAST B N AK PNHDL B N
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR JUN 10 - 16 2025
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A N OREGON A N NRN CALIF N N
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A N NEVADA A N
W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A N WYOMING A N
UTAH A N ARIZONA A N COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS N A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI N A
ARKANSAS N A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN N A
ILLINOIS N A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN N A
INDIANA N A OHIO A A KENTUCKY N A
TENNESSEE N A ALABAMA N A NEW YORK A N
VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N
MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N
PENN A N NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE B A
AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN B A
AK S INT N N AK SO COAST N N AK PNHDL B B
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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