389
FXUS02 KWBC 030655
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
255 AM EDT TUE JUN 3 2025
VALID 12Z FRI JUN 06 2025 - 12Z TUE JUN 10 2025
..OVERVIEW
STRONG UPPER RIDGING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC BENEATH AN
UPPER LOW/TROUGHING OVER ALASKA WILL PROMOTE A STRONG JET INTO
WESTERN CANADA AND SPLIT FLOW OVER THE CONUS LATER THIS WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. OVER THE EAST, UPPER RIDGING WILL BE SPLIT BETWEEN
ATLANTIC CANADA AND SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA WITH ADDITIONAL RIDGING
ACROSS MEXICO. MUCH OF THE COUNTRY WILL SEE WARMING TEMPERATURES
ALONG WITH GREATEST CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAIN FOR THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND MIDWEST INTO THE NORTHEAST AND NHC IS MONITORING SUB-
TROPICAL LOW DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL OFF THE SOUTHEAST.
..GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
THERE CONTINUES TO RUN TO RUN VARIANCES IN DETAILS FOR INDIVIDUAL
SYSTEMS HOWEVER THERE IS REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL
PATTERN, EVOLUTION FOR THE EXTENDED PERIODS THAT SUPPORTED THE USE A
MULTI-MODEL BLEND. LIKE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, THE PREFERRED
GUIDANCE WAS THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN AND BEST CLUSTERED
ECMWF/CANADIAN ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ALONG WITH FAVORABLY SUPPORTING
GUIDANCE FROM THE 01 UTC NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS.
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS MONITORING THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT
OF A SUB- TROPICAL FEATURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. DEEPEST
MOISTURE MAY STAY OFFSHORE AND UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH, BUT THERE IS A
CHANCE OF SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL ALONG THE COAST. WPC MAINTAINED THE
MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY FROM FAR
NORTHERN FLORIDA UP THROUGH THE COASTAL CAROLINAS AS THE LOW LIFTS
SLOWLY UP THE COAST IN WARM AND MOIST GULF STREAM WATERS.
MEANWHILE, NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRE
ALONG A SLOW-MOVING AND WAVY FRONT THAT WILL STRETCH FROM THE
NORTHEAST AND OHIO VALLEY STATES DOWN TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
ABUNDANT MOISTURE POOLED OVER THE REGION ALONG WITH A STEADY
INFLUX FROM THE GULF COUPLED WITH SHORTWAVE/JET SUPPORT WILL HELP
PRIME THE ENVIRONMENT FOR EMBEDDED HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL. THIS
ENVIRONMENT MAY BE CONDUCIVE FOR ISOLATED AREAS WITH ACCUMULATIONS
OF SEVERAL INCHES, BUT LOCAL FOCUS DETAILS ARE PROVING QUITE
VARIED IN GUIDANCE FROM RUN TO RUN. WPC HAS A BROAD MARGINAL RISK
SPANNING FROM THE PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. WITHIN THE MARGINAL IS A SMALLER AREA HIGHLIGHTED
WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL MAINLY OVER OKLAHOMA BUT
ALSO INTO THE ADJACENT COUNTIES OF ARKANSAS AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI.
THE SOUTHERN TRAILING TAIL OF THE ELONGATED BOUNDARY WILL STALL
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, EVENTUALLY WITH BAROCLINICITY REJUVENATED
MORE BROADLY AGAIN OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. BY AMPLE NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM REINFORCEMENT THAT MAY ALSO ACT TO SPREAD MAIN HEAVY
RAINFALL FOCUS ACROSS THE MID- SOUTH AND TENNESSEE VALLEY.
MEANWHILE, ENHANCED RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO SPREAD ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST LATE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND AS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE FRONT ADVANCES, EVENTUALLY SHIFTING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MID-
ATLANTIC TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST LATER WEEKEND INTO NEXT MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN MODERATING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE COLD
FRONT. SOME OF THE WARMEST YEAR TO DATE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S. WITH DAILY READINGS CLIMBING INTO
THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S THERE WILL BE A MODERATE LEVEL OF
HEATRISK. CARE SHOULD BE TAKEN TO PROTECT YOURSELF FROM THE HOTTEST
PART OF THE DAY. AREAS OF SOUTH TEXAS WILL SEE RISING TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND, CRESTING 105F BY NEXT
WEEKEND ALONG THE RIO GRANDE. THIS MAY PUSH HEAT INDEX VALUES OVER
110F.
HEAT SAFETY -- TAKE PRECAUTIONS SUCH AS INCREASED WATER INTAKE AND
MORE TIME IN AIR CONDITIONED AREAS TO AVOID HEAT EXHAUSTION AND
HEAT STROKE. SEE WEATHER.GOV/HEAT FOR MORE INFORMATION ON SAFETY
TIPS AND RESOURCES.
CAMPBELL/SCHICHTEL
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST (QPF), EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK (ERO), WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK (WWO) PROBABILITIES, HEAT
INDICES, AND KEY MESSAGES CAN BE ACCESSED FROM:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page