017
FXUS01 KWBC 030820
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
400 AM EDT TUE JUN 03 2025
VALID 12Z TUE JUN 03 2025 - 12Z THU JUN 05 2025
...WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE WEATHER THREATS ACROSS THE
MID-SECTION OF THE NATION TODAY WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD AND
LOSE INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...
...TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA IS FORECAST TO SPREAD
FURTHER UP THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE COASTAL SOUTHEAST...
...RENEWED ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
...MUCH COOLER WEATHER SETTLES INTO THE CENTRAL U.S., WHILE THE
EAST WARMS UP...
THE WIDESPREAD ACTIVE AND SEVERE WEATHER CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE
MID-SECTION OF THE COUNTRY IS FORECAST TO LOSE SOME INTENSITY AS
THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM GRADUALLY WEAKENS WITH TIME. THE
FRONT IS STILL QUITE POTENT THIS MORNING AS IT FORCES ITS WAY DOWN
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTERACTS WITH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A
LIFTING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND MOST POTENT
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IMPACTING MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS
MORNING. AS THE LAST IN A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE WAVES TRAVELING
ALONG THE FRONT HEADS FURTHER NORTHEAST LATER TODAY, THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO ORGANIZE FARTHER TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST FROM
OKLAHOMA THROUGH MISSOURI INTO ILLINOIS BY TONIGHT, WHERE HIGH
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
HERE, WITH A LESSER THREAT OF TORNADOES. BY WEDNESDAY, THE FRONT
IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT PUSHES FARTHER TO THE EAST DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MUCH LESS INTENSE AND MORE SCATTERED AS THEY MOVE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND THE OHIO VALLEY LATER ON WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY DIPPING OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA
WILL BRING A RENEWED ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
FOUR CORNERS INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS FROM WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY, RAISING FLASH FLOODING CHANCES OVER AREAS WITH
TERRAIN-ENHANCED RAINFALL AND BURN SCARS IN THE AFOREMENTIONED
AREAS.
MEANWHILE, TROPICAL MOISTURE THAT HAS ALREADY BROUGHT HEAVY RAIN
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA IN THE VICINITY OF A STALLED FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO INTERACT WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF. THIS INTERACTION WILL LIFT THE CORE OF THE
TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD, LEADING TO THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN
SPREADING UP THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING WHEN LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
URBANIZED AREAS. THIS RAIN EPISODE WILL BE MUCH WELCOMED AS THIS
REGION REMAINS IN SEVERE TO EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS. THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS MONITORING THE POSSIBILITY FOR THIS
SYSTEM TO ORGANIZE AND DEVELOP SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS OFF THE COAST OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THROUGH THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
WHILE TEMPERATURES COOL ACROSS THE MID-SECTION OF THE COUNTRY, THE
OPPOSITE WILL OCCUR ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE RECENT PROLONGED
PERIOD OF BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE REPLACED BY AN
INCREASING AREA OF ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID- TO
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, EAST INTO NEARLY ALL OF THE EASTERN U.S.
AS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THESE REGIONS. THE
EXCEPTION TO THE ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST WILL BE
ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE COASTAL SOUTHEAST WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL
BE BELOW AVERAGE DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE UNDER
THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW.
KONG/ORAVEC
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