017  
FXUS01 KWBC 030820  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
400 AM EDT TUE JUN 03 2025  
 
VALID 12Z TUE JUN 03 2025 - 12Z THU JUN 05 2025  
 
...WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE WEATHER THREATS ACROSS THE  
MID-SECTION OF THE NATION TODAY WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD AND  
LOSE INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...  
 
...TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA IS FORECAST TO SPREAD  
FURTHER UP THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE COASTAL SOUTHEAST...  
 
...RENEWED ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO MOVE  
ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...  
 
...MUCH COOLER WEATHER SETTLES INTO THE CENTRAL U.S., WHILE THE  
EAST WARMS UP...  
 
THE WIDESPREAD ACTIVE AND SEVERE WEATHER CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE  
MID-SECTION OF THE COUNTRY IS FORECAST TO LOSE SOME INTENSITY AS  
THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM GRADUALLY WEAKENS WITH TIME. THE  
FRONT IS STILL QUITE POTENT THIS MORNING AS IT FORCES ITS WAY DOWN  
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTERACTS WITH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A  
LIFTING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND MOST POTENT  
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IMPACTING MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS  
MORNING. AS THE LAST IN A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE WAVES TRAVELING  
ALONG THE FRONT HEADS FURTHER NORTHEAST LATER TODAY, THUNDERSTORMS  
ARE EXPECTED TO ORGANIZE FARTHER TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST FROM  
OKLAHOMA THROUGH MISSOURI INTO ILLINOIS BY TONIGHT, WHERE HIGH  
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER THREAT  
HERE, WITH A LESSER THREAT OF TORNADOES. BY WEDNESDAY, THE FRONT  
IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT PUSHES FARTHER TO THE EAST DURING THE  
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE  
EXPECTED TO BE MUCH LESS INTENSE AND MORE SCATTERED AS THEY MOVE  
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND THE OHIO VALLEY LATER ON WEDNESDAY INTO  
THURSDAY MORNING.  
 
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY DIPPING OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA  
WILL BRING A RENEWED ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE  
FOUR CORNERS INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS FROM WEDNESDAY  
INTO THURSDAY, RAISING FLASH FLOODING CHANCES OVER AREAS WITH  
TERRAIN-ENHANCED RAINFALL AND BURN SCARS IN THE AFOREMENTIONED  
AREAS.  
 
MEANWHILE, TROPICAL MOISTURE THAT HAS ALREADY BROUGHT HEAVY RAIN  
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA IN THE VICINITY OF A STALLED FRONT WILL  
CONTINUE TO INTERACT WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE  
NORTHEASTERN GULF. THIS INTERACTION WILL LIFT THE CORE OF THE  
TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD, LEADING TO THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN  
SPREADING UP THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY  
MORNING WHEN LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS  
URBANIZED AREAS. THIS RAIN EPISODE WILL BE MUCH WELCOMED AS THIS  
REGION REMAINS IN SEVERE TO EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS. THE  
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS MONITORING THE POSSIBILITY FOR THIS  
SYSTEM TO ORGANIZE AND DEVELOP SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL  
CHARACTERISTICS OFF THE COAST OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THROUGH THE  
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  
 
WHILE TEMPERATURES COOL ACROSS THE MID-SECTION OF THE COUNTRY, THE  
OPPOSITE WILL OCCUR ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE RECENT PROLONGED  
PERIOD OF BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE REPLACED BY AN  
INCREASING AREA OF ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID- TO  
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, EAST INTO NEARLY ALL OF THE EASTERN U.S.  
AS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THESE REGIONS. THE  
EXCEPTION TO THE ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST WILL BE  
ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE COASTAL SOUTHEAST WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL  
BE BELOW AVERAGE DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE UNDER  
THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW.  
 
KONG/ORAVEC  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  
 

 
 
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