296
FXUS02 KWBC 031858
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
258 PM EDT TUE JUN 3 2025
VALID 12Z FRI JUN 06 2025 - 12Z TUE JUN 10 2025
...HEAVY RAINFALL/FLASH FLOODING THREAT FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
TO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND TO INCLUDE A SOUTHERN
PLAINS TO MID-SOUTH SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...
...HEATWAVE FOR THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST/WEST AND ALSO THE U.S.
SOUTHERN TIER, BUT ESPECIALLY SOUTH TEXAS...
...COMPACT LOW TO LIFT ALONG/OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. LATE WEEK
BEING MONITORRED BY NHC FOR SUB-TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT...
..GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
MODELS AND ENSEMBLES HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A BETTER CLUSTERED UPPER
LEVEL FLOW PATTERN EVOLUTION THROUGH MEDIUM RANGE TIME SCALES, BUT
CONTINUE TO OFFER LESS THAN STELLAR RUN TO RUN VARIANCES IN
INDIVIDUAL SURFACE SYSTEMS AND LOCAL WEATHER/HAZARD FOCUS. PREFER
A COMPOSITE OF GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN/UKMET AND GEFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ALONG WITH FAVORABLY SUPPORTING GUIDANCE FROM THE
01 UTC NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS. THIS BLEND SEEMS TO OFFER A
REASONABLE MIDDLE OF SPECTRUM DEPICTION OF SURFACE SYSTEM AND
HAZARD THREATS CONSISTENT WITH THE MORE PREDICTABLE UPPER FLOW.
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS MONITORING THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT
OF A SUB-TROPICAL FEATURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. DEEPEST
MOISTURE MAY STAY OFFSHORE AND UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH, BUT THERE IS A
CHANCE OF SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL ALONG THE COAST. WPC MAINTAINED THE
MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAIN FOR FRIDAY OVER COASTAL NORTH
CAROLINA AS THE LOW LIFTS SLOWLY UP THE COAST IN WARM AND MOIST
GULF STREAM WATERS.
MEANWHILE, NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRE
ALONG A SLOW-MOVING AND WAVY FRONT THAT WILL STRETCH FROM THE
NORTHEAST AND OHIO VALLEY STATES DOWN TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
ABUNDANT MOISTURE POOLED OVER THE REGION ALONG WITH A STEADY
INFLUX FROM THE GULF COUPLED WITH SHORTWAVE/JET SUPPORT WILL HELP
PRIME THE ENVIRONMENT FOR EMBEDDED HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL. THIS
ENVIRONMENT MAY BE CONDUCIVE FOR ISOLATED AREAS WITH ACCUMULATIONS
OF SEVERAL INCHES, BUT LOCAL FOCUS DETAILS ARE PROVING QUITE
VARIED IN GUIDANCE FROM RUN TO RUN. WPC HAS A BROAD MARGINAL RISK
SPANNING FROM THE PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND. WITHIN THE MARGINAL IS A SMALLER AREA HIGHLIGHTED
WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL MAINLY FOR OKLAHOMA, BUT
ALSO INTO THE ADJACENT COUNTIES OF ARKANSAS AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI.
THE SOUTHERN TRAILING TAIL OF THE ELONGATED BOUNDARY WILL STALL
AND WEAKEN OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. DYNAMIC UPPER CLOSED
LOW/TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S. FROM THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL SPAWN FRONTO/CYCLO GENESIS, WITH
BAROCLINICITY REJUVENATED MORE BROADLY AGAIN THAT MAY ACT TO
SPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL FOCUS ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH AND TENNESSEE
VALLEY THEN DOWN ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST.
SUMMER HEAT WILL BUILD ACROSS THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST/WEST AND INTO
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH ESTABLISHMENT OF MEAN UPPER RIDGING OVER
THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES OVER THE INTERIOR
NORTHWEST MAY RANGE UPWARDS TO 20-25F DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. AREAS
FROM SOUTH TEXAS INTO THE GULF COAST WILL ALSO EXPERIENCE RISING
TEMPERATURES, CRESTING UPWARDS OF 105F BY THE WEEKEND OVER SOUTH
TEXAS TO PUSH HEAT INDEX VALUES DANGEROUSLY UPWARDS TO 110-115F.
PLEASE TAKE HEAT SAFETY PRECAUTIONS SUCH AS INCREASED WATER INTAKE
AND MORE TIME IN AIR CONDITIONED AREAS TO AVOID HEAT EXHAUSTION
AND HEAT STROKE. SEE WEATHER.GOV/HEAT FOR MORE INFORMATION ON
SAFETY TIPS AND RESOURCES.
CAMPBELL/SCHICHTEL
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST (QPF), EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK (ERO), WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK (WWO) PROBABILITIES, HEAT
INDICES, AND KEY MESSAGES CAN BE ACCESSED FROM:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
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