394  
FXUS01 KWBC 032004  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
403 PM EDT TUE JUN 03 2025  
 
VALID 00Z WED JUN 04 2025 - 00Z FRI JUN 06 2025  
 
...WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND  
CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY AND THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...  
 
...TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA IS FORECAST TO SPREAD  
FURTHER UP THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE COASTAL SOUTHEAST...  
 
...LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, AS WELL AS THE  
POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED FLASH FLOODING, ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE  
FOUR CORNERS INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...  
 
THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING  
HAS INCREASED ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL KANSAS AS A HEAVY LINE OF  
STORMS IS SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT  
PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION. THE MULTIPLE INCH RAINFALL TOTALS  
OBSERVED AS OF THIS AFTERNOON AND THE HIGH RAINFALL RATES ONGOING  
IN THE THUNDERSTORMS HAS ALLOWED THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER TO  
ISSUE A MODERATE RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR MOST OF CENTRAL  
KANSAS WITH FURTHER FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCIES POSSIBLE. AREAS FROM  
CENTRAL TEXAS TO MISSOURI ARE UNDER A BROADER SLIGHT RISK FOR  
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THROUGH THIS EVENING AS SCATTERED FLASH  
FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT. CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAIN  
CONTINUE ALONG THE BOUNDARY FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST FROM CENTRAL  
TEXAS TO MICHIGAN FOR WEDNESDAY WITH ISOLATED FLOODING POSSIBLE.  
ON THURSDAY, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHWARD  
ACROSS THE PLAINS, ALONG WITH ENERGY MOVING IN FROM THE WEST, AND  
REFOCUS A GREATER THREAT FOR STORMS AND FLASH FLOODING. WPC HAS  
AREAS OF NORTH TEXAS, OKLAHOMA, AND KANSAS WITH A SLIGHT RISK FOR  
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AS ORGANIZING STORMS MAY DROP 2-3 INCHES OF  
RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION. A MARGINAL THREAT FOR EXCESSIVE  
RAINFALL ALSO REMAINS ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY ON  
THURSDAY DUE TO THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT. A MARGINAL  
RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS ALSO IN EFFECT ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST  
AND FOUR CORNERS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY CORNER AS ENERGY  
ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY SPARKS LOCALLY HEAVY AFTERNOON  
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF BRINGING ISOLATED FLOODING TO SENSITIVE  
TERRAIN.  
 
FOR SEVERE WEATHER, A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER HAS BEEN  
ISSUED BY THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER FOR WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE  
EASTERN MIDWEST AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN  
PLAINS. THE MIDWEST CAN EXPECT WIND, SOME DAMAGING GUSTS ARE  
POSSIBLE, AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL TO BE THE MAIN HAZARDS. THE  
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN PLAINS CAN ALSO EXPECT LARGE HAIL AND  
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH SUPERCELLS THAT DO DEVELOP. ON THURSDAY,  
ENERGY FROM THE WEST AND FAVORABLE DYNAMICS, IS LIKELY TO TRIGGER  
ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVER WEATHER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SPC HAS  
ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK TO DEMARCATE THE STORM THREAT/LEVEL. A LINE  
OF STORMS IS ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ALONG THE COLD  
FRONT AND A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST.  
 
MEANWHILE, TROPICAL MOISTURE THAT HAS ALREADY BROUGHT HEAVY RAIN  
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA IN THE VICINITY OF A STALLED FRONT WILL  
CONTINUE TO INTERACT WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE  
NORTHEASTERN GULF. THIS INTERACTION WILL LIFT THE CORE OF THE  
TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD, LEADING TO THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN  
SPREADING UP THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY,  
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. WIDESPREAD TROPICAL SHOWERS AND  
STORMS ARE LIKELY FOR TOMORROW AND HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO DROP A  
QUICK 1-2 INCHES WHERE MARGINAL FLOODING COULD BE POSSIBLE. AN  
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THEN MOVES NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE CAROLINA AND  
GEORGIA COAST ON THURSDAY AND BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND  
MOISTURE TO PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST. IT IS WORTH MENTIONING THAT  
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS MONITORING THE POSSIBILITY FOR  
THIS SYSTEM TO ORGANIZE AND DEVELOP SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL  
CHARACTERISTICS OFF THE COAST OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THROUGH THE  
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  
 
BEHIND A COLD FRONT SAGGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS,  
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 10-20 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR EARLY  
JUNE. TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND 70S WILL BE COMMONPLACE FOR THE  
HEART OF THE NATION. WHILE TEMPERATURES COOL ACROSS THE  
MID-SECTION OF THE COUNTRY, THE OPPOSITE WILL OCCUR ALONG THE EAST  
COAST. THE RECENT PROLONGED PERIOD OF BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES  
WILL BE REPLACED BY AN INCREASING AREA OF ABOVE AVERAGE  
TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID- TO LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, EAST INTO  
NEARLY ALL OF THE EASTERN U.S. AS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS  
ACROSS THESE REGIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE AROUND 10-15  
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE AND WILL REACH THE UPPER 80S TO EVEN THE LOW  
90S FOR REGION IN THE NORTHEAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THE  
EXCEPTION TO THE ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST WILL BE  
ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE COASTAL SOUTHEAST WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL  
BE BELOW AVERAGE DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE UNDER  
THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW.  
 
WILDER  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  
 
 
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