708
FXUS01 KWBC 040818
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
400 AM EDT WED JUN 04 2025
VALID 12Z WED JUN 04 2025 - 12Z FRI JUN 06 2025
...HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WEAKEN TODAY BUT THE NEXT ROUND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S. BEGINNING THURSDAY
NIGHT...
...HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SCATTERED FLASH FLOODING, ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS
INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
...TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA IS FORECAST TO SPREAD
FURTHER UP THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE COASTAL SOUTHEAST...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM TEXAS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES HAS BEEN
THE FOCUS OF WIDESPREAD STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MARCHING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID-SECTION OF THE COUNTRY. THE DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN TODAY, RESULTING
IN SIGNIFICANT LESSENING OF THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS BY THE TIME THE FRONT MOVES FURTHER INTO THE MIDWEST
AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES LATER TODAY. THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER
WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH/LOW CURRENTLY
MOVING ONSHORE NEAR THE CALIFORNIA-MEXICO BORDER. UPPER-LEVEL
DYNAMICS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM HAVE ALREADY TRIGGERED CLUSTERS OF
HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS MORNING FROM SOUTHERN
CARLIFORNIA THROUGH NORTHERN ARIZONA AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO.
THIS SYSTEM WILL HEAD FURTHER EASTWARD AND BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT HAS STALLED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
THIS WILL RESULT IN ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY TONIGHT. THESE
ACTIVITIES WILL BECOME HEAVIER AND MORE FREQUENT AS THE UPPER LOW
MOVES CLOSER. BY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, A LOW
PRESSURE WAVE IS FORECAST TO FORM OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
AND THEN TRACK EASTWARD, SETTING THE STAGE FOR A ROUND OF MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO IMPACT THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S. BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT.
MEANWHILE, TROPICAL MOISTURE THAT HAS ALREADY BROUGHT HEAVY RAIN
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA IN THE VICINITY OF A STALLED FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO INTERACT WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF. THIS INTERACTION WILL LIFT THE CORE OF THE
TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD, LEADING TO THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN
SPREADING UP THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN
INTERACT WITH A COASTAL FRONT AND DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
AREA. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK FURTHER UP THE COAST OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. ON THURSDAY, AND THE CENTER COULD REACH THE
EASTERN SHORES OF NORTH CAROLINA BY FRIDAY MORNING. WHILE THE
BULK OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD
REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE, A COUPLE INCHES OF RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED TO
FALL ALONG COASTAL CAROLINAS, AND ESPECIALLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST WHERE HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CONTINUES TO MONITOR THE POSSIBILITY
FOR THIS SYSTEM TO ORGANIZE AND DEVELOP SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS NEAR/OFF THE COAST OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THROUGH
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
BEHIND A COLD FRONT SAGGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS,
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 10-20 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR EARLY
JUNE. TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND 70S WILL BE COMMONPLACE FOR THE
HEART OF THE NATION. WHILE TEMPERATURES COOL ACROSS THE
MID-SECTION OF THE COUNTRY, THE OPPOSITE WILL OCCUR ALONG THE EAST
COAST. THE RECENT PROLONGED PERIOD OF BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
WILL BE REPLACED BY AN INCREASING AREA OF ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID- TO LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, EAST INTO
NEARLY ALL OF THE EASTERN U.S. AS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS THESE REGIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE AROUND 10-15
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE AND WILL REACH THE UPPER 80S TO EVEN THE LOW
90S FOR REGION IN THE NORTHEAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THE
EXCEPTION TO THE ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST WILL BE
ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE COASTAL SOUTHEAST WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL
BE BELOW AVERAGE DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE UNDER
THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
KONG/WILDER
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