603
FXUS01 KWBC 041930
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
329 PM EDT WED JUN 04 2025
VALID 00Z THU JUN 05 2025 - 00Z SAT JUN 07 2025
...HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DRIVE A THREAT FOR
SCATTERED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...
...A THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL EXIST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS ON THURSDAY, AND AS FAR EAST AS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEYS ON FRIDAY...
...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE INTERIOR OF THE
SOUTHEAST MAY RESULT IN SOME HEAVY RAINFALL HERE ALONG WITH SOME
LOCALIZED POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING...
A STORM SYSTEM TRAVERSING THE SOUTHWEST U.S. WILL CONTINUE TO
FAVOR A REGIONAL THREAT OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
TONIGHT WHICH MAY BRING SUFFICIENT RAINFALL FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED
AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING. THIS WILL INCLUDE POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO
SOME OF THE AREA BURN SCAR LOCATIONS, LOCAL SLOT CANYON AREAS, AND
ALSO THE NORMALLY DRY WASHES. UP TO A COUPLE INCHES OF NEW
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, AND THE
WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HAS DEPICTED A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL (LEVEL 2/4) ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN UTAH, NORTHERN
ARIZONA, NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHWEST COLORADO.
THIS SAME STORM SYSTEM WILL THEN EJECT EAST OUT INTO THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS BY LATER THURSDAY WHERE IT WILL BEGIN TO
INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL ZONE THAT IS ALREADY DRAPED FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS NORTHEASTWARD UP ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS
FRONTAL ZONE WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS AND WILL ALLOW FOR MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TO RIDE
NORTHEAST UP ALONG IT. THIS WILL DRIVE BROKEN CLUSTERS OF HEAVY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL DRIVE ADDITIONAL CONCERNS FOR
SOME FLASH FLOODING, BUT ALSO SEVERE WEATHER.
THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD TEND TO BE OVER THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS FROM EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO PORTIONS OF
OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS GOING THROUGH THURSDAY WHERE THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS DEPICTED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS AND
POTENTIALLY A FEW TORNADOES WILL EXIST, AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ON FRIDAY, THIS THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER
WILL EXTENT WELL OFF TO THE EAST AND EXTEND FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS EAST INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS WHERE A BROAD
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS NOW DEPICTED.
MEANWHILE, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR SO ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF THE SOUTHEAST WHICH WILL
MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN CAROLINAS AND
EVENTUALLY OFFSHORE OF THE VIRGINIA CAPES BY FRIDAY NIGHT.
TROPICAL MOISTURE LIFTING NORTHWARD IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS WILL
BRING A THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AREAS
OF FLASH FLOODING. A FEW INCHES OF RAINFALL IS GENERALLY EXPECTED
ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN.
BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL ZONE DRAPING FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS, OHIO VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY THE NORTHEAST, TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS ESPECIALLY OVER PORTIONS
OF THE PLAINS RUNNING AS MUCH AS 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE
FOR EARLY JUNE. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE BELOW NORMAL OVER
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST AND THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WHERE EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER AND AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER.
MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHEAST
U.S. AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHERE SOME HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY REACH
OVER 90S ON THURSDAY. VERY WARM TO LOCALLY HOT TEMPERATURES ARE
ALSO EXPECTED BY FRIDAY ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND PORTIONS
OF THE GREAT BASIN.
ORRISON
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