336
FOUS30 KWBC 050805
QPFERD
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
405 AM EDT THU JUN 5 2025
DAY 1
VALID 12Z THU JUN 05 2025 - 12Z FRI JUN 06 2025
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS...
..CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN PLAINS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED IN THE WEST SOUTHWESTERLY MID TO UPPER
LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL SUPPORT
ADDITIONAL ORGANIZED CONVECTION LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
TO SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE NORTHWARD MOVING WARM FRONT
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, IGNITING CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHEAST
COLORADO, WITH THIS ACTIVITY THEN ENHANCING AS IT TREKS EAST
SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN KS AND NORTHERN OK. THE PREVIOUS BROAD
SLIGHT RISK AREA WAS NARROWED TO BETTER ALIGN WITH THE HIGHER HREF
NEIGHBORHOOD PROBABILITIES FOR 2 AND 3"+ AMOUNTS AND WHERE THE HREF
EAS PROBABILITIES FOR 1"+ AMOUNTS WERE HIGHEST, INDICATING WHERE
HI RES GUIDANCE WAS IN BETTER AGREEMENT. SOUTH OF THIS WEST TO EAST
SLIGHT RISK AREA, THERE WAS LESS AGREEMENT ON CONVECTIVE PLACEMENT
ACROSS WESTERN TX. THE PREVIOUS SLIGHT RISK AREA WAS REDUCED TO
MARGINAL GIVEN THIS AND HIGHER FFG VALUES.
UPSTREAM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN INTO THE SOUTHERN TO
CENTRAL ROCKIES...NO CHANGES MADE TO THE PREVIOUS SLIGHT RISK
AREA. PW VALUES EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FROM SOUTHERN
NV INTO NORTHERN AZ, SOUTHERN UT AND WESTERN CO, SUPPORTING
ANOTHER DAY OF WIDESPREAD SCATTERED CONVECTION, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS
AND ISOLATED RUNOFF ISSUES.
.LOWER LAKES, OH VALLEY INTO THE MID TO LOWER MS VALLEY
PW VALUES ALSO EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE IN THE VICINITY OF
THE NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM THE LOWER
LAKES, SOUTHWEST INTO THE OH VALLEY AND MID TO LOWER MS VALLEY. A
BROAD MARGINAL RISK AREA WAS MAINTAINED FROM PREVIOUS ISSUANCES FOR
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AND ISOLATED RUNOFF ISSUES. THE PREVIOUS
MARGINAL RISK AREA WAS NARROWED TO BETTER REFLECT LATEST MODEL
CONSENSUS ON THE MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY QPF AXIS.
..COASTAL SC INTO EASTERN NC
A WEAK SURFACE LOW, ACCOMPANIED BY AN AXIS OF ABOVE AVERAGE PW
VALUES WILL PUSH NORTHEAST ALONG THE SC/NC COASTS DAY 1. THE
LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR THE AXIS OF THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION TO REMAIN OFFSHORE, INDICATED BY FAIRLY HIGH HREF EAS
PROBABILITIES FOR 1, 2 AND 3"+ TOTALS OFF THE NC COAST. GIVEN
THIS, THE PREVIOUS SLIGHT RISK AREA OVER THE CENTRAL NC COAST WAS
REMOVED. THERE IS CONSENSUS FOR AN INLAND MAX DAY 1 QPF ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NC. THE HREF NEIGHBORHOOD PROBABILITIES ARE FAIRLY HIGH
FOR 2 AND 3"+ AMOUNTS, ALTHOUGH THERE IS NOT GOOD OVERLAP IN
PLACEMENT AS EAS PROBABILITIES ARE MUCH LOWER FOR THESE VALUES.
CONSIDERED A SLIGHT RISK HERE, BUT WITH FFG VALUES HIGH AND LOW EAS
PROBABILITIES FOR THE 2 AND 3"+ AMOUNTS, THE RISK WAS KEPT AT
MARGINAL.
ORAVEC
DAY 2
VALID 12Z FRI JUN 06 2025 - 12Z SAT JUN 07 2025
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR MUCH OF
OKLAHOMA INTO THE KANSAS, OKLAHOMA, MISSOURI, ARKANSAS BORDER
REGION...
..OKLAHOMA INTO THE OK/KS/MO/AR BORDER AREA
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY FORECAST TO DROP EAST
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN
PLAINS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY
OF THE WEST TO EAST ORIENTED FRONTAL ZONE. PW VALUES ALONG THIS
FRONT WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE...2+ STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE
MEAN, SUPPORTING HEAVY PRECIP POTENTIAL. THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD
MODEL CONSENSUS FOR AN AXIS OF HEAVY RAINS ALONG THIS FRONT ACROSS
MUCH OF OK INTO THE OK/KS/MO/AR BORDER REGION. ONLY SOME SLIGHT
CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS SLIGHT RISK AREA TO REFLECT THIS QPF AXIS
CONSENSUS.
..SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN ROCKIES
NOT A LOT OF CHANGES EXPECTED TO THE LARGE SCALE FLOW FROM DAY 1
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. PW VALUES
FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE WITH ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WEST SOUTH WEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS
SHOULD SUPPORT ANOTHER DAY OF WIDESPREAD SCATTERED CONVECTION AND
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED RUNOFF ISSUES. THE MARGINAL RISK
WAS EXTENDED BACK ACROSS THESE AREAS TO BE MORE SIMILAR TO THE DAY
1 PERIOD GIVEN THE SIMILAR OVERALL CONDITIONS DAY 2.
..MID MS VALLEY, OH VALLEY INTO NEW ENGLAND
SIMILAR TO THE DAY 1 PERIOD, AN AXIS OF ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES
WILL STRETCH ALONG THE SLOW MOVING FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE MID MS
VALLEY, OH VALLEY INTO NEW ENGLAND. THERE IS GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS
ON A BROAD REGION OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIP AMOUNTS ALONG
THIS FRONT. ONLY SOME MINOR CHANGES TO REFLECT THE LATEST MODEL
QPF AXIS CONSENSUS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS BROAD MARGINAL RISK AREA
ACROSS THESE REGIONS.
ORAVEC
DAY 3
VALID 12Z SAT JUN 07 2025 - 12Z SUN JUN 08 2025
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS THE LOWER
ARKANSAS VALLEY, LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE LOWER TENNESSEE
VALLEY...
THE SECOND ROUND OF HEIGHT FALLS MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL TO
SOUTHERN PLAINS DAY 2 WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST SOUTHEAST TOWARD
THE MID TO LOWER MS VALLEY, OH AND TN VALLEYS. UPPER DIFLUENCE IS
FORECAST TO BE WELL DEFINED SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY
SUNDAY IN AN AXIS OF ABOVE AVERAGE PW VALUES THAT WILL REMAIN ALONG
THE WEST TO EAST ORIENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THESE AREAS.
THIS SHOULD SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF ORGANIZED
CONVECTION ALONG THIS FRONT. THERE IS SOME SPREAD WITH THE QPF
AXES, BUT CONSENSUS THAT HEAVY AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THIS
FRONT. THE PREVIOUS SLIGHT RISK AREA WAS EXPANDED EASTWARD
CONSIDERABLY FROM EASTERN OK, ACROSS MUCH OF AR, WESTERN TN AND
NORTHERN MS.
..NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
A SHARPENING NORTHERN STREAM TROF WILL PUSH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD MODEL
CONSENSUS FOR MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIP TOTALS ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. ONLY SOME SLIGHT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS
MARGINAL RISK AREA, EXTENDING IT INTO ALL OF NORTHERN MAINE TO
COVER THE MODEL QPF SPREAD.
ORAVEC
DAY 1 THREAT AREA: HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/94EPOINTS.TXT
DAY 2 THREAT AREA: HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/98EPOINTS.TXT
DAY 3 THREAT AREA: HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/99EPOINTS.TXT
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