164
FXUS01 KWBC 050811
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
400 AM EDT THU JUN 05 2025
VALID 12Z THU JUN 05 2025 - 12Z SAT JUN 07 2025
...HEAVY SHOWERS AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
REDEVELOP TONIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND NEARBY HIGH PLAINS
WHERE FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE...
...ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS AND NEARBY HIGH PLAINS
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY WHERE FLASH FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE...
...TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IS FORECAST TO BRING SOME HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY NEAR THE CAROLINA
COASTLINE AND PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS ALREADY BROUGHT HEAVY RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TODAY. HOWEVER, THE WEAKENED SYSTEM
IS FORECAST TO LINGER OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND PERIODICALLY EJECTS
ENERGY EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S. WHERE IT WILL CONTINUE
TO INTERACT WITH A MEANDERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. UNDER THIS WEATHER
PATTERN, THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LESSEN TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE FOUR CORNERS AS THE
FOCUS OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT INTO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
U.S. THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE RIDING NORTHEASTWARD UP ALONG THE MEANDERING FRONT WILL
PERIODICALLY TRIGGER CLUSTERS OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WHICH WILL LEAD TO ADDITIONAL CONCERNS FOR SOME FLASH FLOODING
ALONG WITH SEVERE WEATHER.
FOR TODAY, THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
BE OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS FROM EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO
PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS WHERE THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
HAS DEPICTED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. A
THREAT OF LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS AND POTENTIALLY A FEW
TORNADOES WILL EXIST, AND ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A
LESSER THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST
TO EXTEND NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEY AND INTO THE
NORTHEAST FOR THE SECOND HALF OF TODAY AND FRIDAY AS THE FRONT
BECOMES SLOW-MOVING. ALSO ON FRIDAY, THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER
WILL EXTENT WELL OFF TO THE EAST INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEYS WHERE A BROAD SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS
DEPICTED. BY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, ANOTHER ROUND OF
POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN IS FORECAST FOR
THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS MAINLY ACROSS OKLAHOMA WHERE SLIGHT RISKS
OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED FARTHER
NORTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE NEARBY HIGH PLAINS
THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, AS WELL AS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST LATER TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
MEANWHILE, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS DEVELOPING NEAR THE COAST OF
THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WHERE AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO
INTERACT WITH A COASTAL FRONT. THE CENTER OF THIS SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD JUST INLAND FROM THE CAROLINA
COASTLINE THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE MOVING FURTHER OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. TROPICAL
MOISTURE LIFTING NORTHWARD NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL BRING
A THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AREAS OF
FLASH FLOODING. A FEW INCHES OF RAINFALL IS GENERALLY EXPECTED
ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN BEFORE THE RAIN MOVES OUT TO SEA ON
FRIDAY.
BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL ZONE DRAPING FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS, OHIO VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY THE NORTHEAST, TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS ESPECIALLY OVER PORTIONS
OF THE PLAINS RUNNING AS MUCH AS 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE
FOR EARLY JUNE. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE BELOW NORMAL OVER
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST AND THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WHERE EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER AND AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER.
MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHEAST
U.S. AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHERE SOME HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY REACH
OVER 90S TODAY. VERY WARM TO LOCALLY HOT TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO
EXPECTED BY FRIDAY ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND PORTIONS OF
THE GREAT BASIN.
KONG/ORRISON
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