164  
FXUS01 KWBC 050811  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
400 AM EDT THU JUN 05 2025  
 
VALID 12Z THU JUN 05 2025 - 12Z SAT JUN 07 2025  
 
...HEAVY SHOWERS AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO  
REDEVELOP TONIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND NEARBY HIGH PLAINS  
WHERE FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE...  
 
...ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS  
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS AND NEARBY HIGH PLAINS  
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY WHERE FLASH FLOODING IS  
POSSIBLE...  
 
...TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM  
IS FORECAST TO BRING SOME HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY NEAR THE CAROLINA  
COASTLINE AND PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...  
 
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS ALREADY BROUGHT HEAVY RAIN AND  
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE FOUR  
CORNERS IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TODAY. HOWEVER, THE WEAKENED SYSTEM  
IS FORECAST TO LINGER OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND PERIODICALLY EJECTS  
ENERGY EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S. WHERE IT WILL CONTINUE  
TO INTERACT WITH A MEANDERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. UNDER THIS WEATHER  
PATTERN, THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL  
LESSEN TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE FOUR CORNERS AS THE  
FOCUS OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT INTO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL  
U.S. THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW  
PRESSURE RIDING NORTHEASTWARD UP ALONG THE MEANDERING FRONT WILL  
PERIODICALLY TRIGGER CLUSTERS OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  
WHICH WILL LEAD TO ADDITIONAL CONCERNS FOR SOME FLASH FLOODING  
ALONG WITH SEVERE WEATHER.  
 
FOR TODAY, THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO  
BE OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS FROM EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO  
PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS WHERE THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER  
HAS DEPICTED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. A  
THREAT OF LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS AND POTENTIALLY A FEW  
TORNADOES WILL EXIST, AND ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A  
LESSER THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST  
TO EXTEND NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEY AND INTO THE  
NORTHEAST FOR THE SECOND HALF OF TODAY AND FRIDAY AS THE FRONT  
BECOMES SLOW-MOVING. ALSO ON FRIDAY, THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER  
WILL EXTENT WELL OFF TO THE EAST INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE  
VALLEYS WHERE A BROAD SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS  
DEPICTED. BY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, ANOTHER ROUND OF  
POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN IS FORECAST FOR  
THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS MAINLY ACROSS OKLAHOMA WHERE SLIGHT RISKS  
OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED.  
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED FARTHER  
NORTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE NEARBY HIGH PLAINS  
THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, AS WELL AS ACROSS THE NORTHERN  
PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST LATER TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.  
 
MEANWHILE, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS DEVELOPING NEAR THE COAST OF  
THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WHERE AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO  
INTERACT WITH A COASTAL FRONT. THE CENTER OF THIS SYSTEM IS  
FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD JUST INLAND FROM THE CAROLINA  
COASTLINE THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE MOVING FURTHER OFF THE  
MID-ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. TROPICAL  
MOISTURE LIFTING NORTHWARD NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL BRING  
A THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AREAS OF  
FLASH FLOODING. A FEW INCHES OF RAINFALL IS GENERALLY EXPECTED  
ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN BEFORE THE RAIN MOVES OUT TO SEA ON  
FRIDAY.  
 
BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL ZONE DRAPING FROM THE SOUTHERN  
PLAINS, OHIO VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY THE NORTHEAST, TEMPERATURES  
WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS ESPECIALLY OVER PORTIONS  
OF THE PLAINS RUNNING AS MUCH AS 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE  
FOR EARLY JUNE. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE BELOW NORMAL OVER  
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST AND THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WHERE EXTENSIVE  
CLOUD COVER AND AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER.  
MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHEAST  
U.S. AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHERE SOME HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY REACH  
OVER 90S TODAY. VERY WARM TO LOCALLY HOT TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO  
EXPECTED BY FRIDAY ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND PORTIONS OF  
THE GREAT BASIN.  
 
KONG/ORRISON  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  
 
 
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