318
FXUS02 KWBC 051859
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
259 PM EDT THU JUN 5 2025
VALID 12Z SUN JUN 08 2025 - 12Z THU JUN 12 2025
..SEVERE WEATHER/HEAVY RAIN THREAT FOR THE SOUTH INTO NEXT WEEK
..INTERIOR WEST TO SOUTH TEXAS HEATWAVE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
..GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
GUIDANCE SEEM REASONABLY WELL CLUSTERED FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK,
BOLSTERING FORECAST CONFIDENCE. HOWEVER, LINGERING EMBEDDED SYSTEM
VARIANCES CONTINUE TO VARY LOCAL WEATHER/HAZARD FOCUS. FAVOR A
COMPOSITE OF LATEST GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN/UKMET MODEL AND
GEFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ALONG WITH FAVORABLY
SUPPORTING GUIDANCE FROM MACHINE LEARNING GUIDANCE AND THE
NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS. THIS BLEND PROVIDES A MIDDLE OF SPECTRUM
DEPICTION OF SYSTEM AND HAZARD THREATS THAT SEEMS CONSISTENT WITH
INDIVIDUAL FEATURE PREDICTABILITY.
..WEATHER/HAZARDS HIGHLIGHTS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ALONG FRONT THAT STRETCHES
THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO/TENNESSEE/MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS AND MID-
ATLANTIC BACK THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. GREATER RAINFALL RATES
AND ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY TO FOCUS OVER PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND
TEXAS WHERE THERE WILL BE POOLED GULF MOISTURE AND HIGH
INSTABILITY TO TAP. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER CONTINUES TO SHOW
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE SOUTH/CENTRAL PLAINS
EAST INTO THE SOUTHEAST. THE DAY 4/SUNDAY WPC EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK (ERO) MAINTAINS THE BROAD MARGINAL RISK FROM THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST WITH AN EMBEDDED SLIGHT RISK AREA
ALONG THE RED RIVER INTO THE ARK-LA- TEX. THE FRONT WILL ADVANCE
SOUTHWARD BY MONDAY AND THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS
THE GULF STATES, LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND EASTERN PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE WPC DAY 5/MONDAY ERO CONTINUES TO SHOW A
BROAD MARGINAL RISK THAT STRETCHES FROM EASTERN NEW MEXICO TO
WESTERN GEORGIA. GIVEN THE VARIANCES ON THE LOCATION OF THE HIGHEST
QPF OPTED TO KEEP THE THREAT POTENTIAL AS A LEVEL 1 ALTHOUGH THERE
ARE SIGNAL FOR LOCAL 2 TO 4 INCHES WHICH MAY REQUIRE A FUTURE
UPGRADE TO A SLIGHT SHOULD AGREEMENT IMPROVE, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS
WITH PRECURSOR RAINFALL TO MOISTEN SOILS.
MEANWHILE, AN AMPLIFIED CLOSED UPPER TROUGH/LOW WILL DIG THROUGH
THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S. INTO NEXT WEEK AND FORCE A WELL DEFINED
WRAPPING FRONTAL SYSTEM DOWN ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
U.S. WITH OVERALL SLOW BUT STEADY SYSTEM PROGRESSION. EXPECT THE
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES WILL RECEIVE MODERATE RAINFALL OVER THE
WEEKEND, WITH FOCUS SHIFTING INTO THE NORTHEAST EARLY-MID NEXT
WEEK. EXPECT THE LEAD FRONT OVER THE SOUTH WILL DISSIPATE WHILE
THIS NORTHERN STREAM FRONT BECOMES DOMINANT TO REJUVENATE RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE SOUTHEAST NEXT WEEK.
THE INTERIOR WEST TO SOUTH TEXAS WILL EXPERIENCE EARLY SEASON HEAT
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR SOUTH TEXAS DAILY READINGS WILL CLIMB
INTO THE 100S, WITH HEAT INDICES UPWARDS OF 110F. THE GREATEST
TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES WILL PRODUCE MORE WIDESPREAD RECORD VALUES
ACROSS THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST U.S. UNDERNEATH MEAN UPPER RIDGING.
THIS REGION WILL OBSERVE READINGS 15 TO 25 DEGREES WARMER THAN
AVERAGE, WITH SOME INTERIOR LOCATIONS APPROACHING TRIPLE DIGITS.
EVEN CITIES LIKE SEATTLE WILL REACH THE MID 80S. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL STRETCH TO THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN AND DESERT
SOUTHWEST WHERE TEMPERATURES MORE TYPICALLY REACH 100 DEGREES BY
JUNE. HEAT SAFETY INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT: WEATHER.GOV/HEAT.
CAMPBELL/SCHICHTEL
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST (QPF), EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK (ERO), WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK (WWO) PROBABILITIES, HEAT
INDICES, AND KEY MESSAGES CAN BE ACCESSED FROM:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=OVW
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