560  
FXUS01 KWBC 070801  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
400 AM EDT SAT JUN 07 2025  
 
VALID 12Z SAT JUN 07 2025 - 12Z MON JUN 09 2025  
 
...SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE  
CAROLINAS SATURDAY AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN  
U.S. ON SUNDAY...  
 
...HEAVY SHOWERS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SCATTERED FLASH FLOODING  
EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-SOUTH AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND  
SATURDAY...  
 
...SIGNIFICANT HEAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES AND  
BUILDS IN THE WEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...  
 
DEEP MOISTURE AND STRONG SURFACE HEATING ALONG A WAVY FRONTAL  
BOUNDARY WILL SET THE STAGE FOR NUMEROUS CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EASTWARD TO THE  
CAROLINAS TODAY. THESE CLUSTERS OF STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL  
TO PRODUCE SWATHS OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, PARTICULARLY FROM THE  
MID-SOUTH TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT,  
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A BROAD SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL  
2/5) THAT STRETCHES FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND NORTHEAST  
TEXAS TO THE CAROLINAS. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ALSO  
OUTLINED A TARGETED ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 3/5), MAINLY FOR PORTIONS  
OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA, CENTRAL ARKANSAS, SOUTHERN TENNESSEE,  
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI, NORTHERN ALABAMA, AND NORTHERN GEORGIA.  
WHILE STRONG AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS FROM  
TODAY'S STORMS, LARGE HAIL AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT  
BE RULED OUT. ON SUNDAY, THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL GENERALLY  
REMAIN ACROSS SIMILAR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S.;  
HOWEVER, SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY ACROSS  
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA, NORTHERN TEXAS, AND THE ARK-LA-TEX LATE SUNDAY  
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW TORNADOES, DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS OF  
80-100 MPH, AND VERY LARGE HAIL ARE THE GREATEST THREATS WITH  
THESE STORMS. ACCORDINGLY, THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED  
AN ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 3/5) TO HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL.  
 
IN ADDITION TO SEVERE WEATHER HAZARDS, THE CLUSTERS OF  
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL  
ALSO BE EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS. GIVEN PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO  
WORK WITH AND THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO REPEATEDLY TRACK OVER  
THE SAME AREAS MULTIPLE TIMES, SCATTERED INSTANCES OF FLASH  
FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH.  
STORMS WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF DOWNPOURS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN  
NEW ENGLAND AS WELL. A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) IS FORECAST FOR  
BOTH AREAS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS FAVORABLE HEAVY RAINFALL SETUP. ON  
SUNDAY, SIMILAR TO THE GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER RISK AREA, THE  
HIGHEST FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS,  
WHERE ADDITIONAL COMPLEXES OF DRENCHING STRONG TO SEVERE  
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO MOVE THROUGH.  
 
DANGEROUS HEAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND ACROSS THE GULF  
COAST STATES WHERE OPPRESSIVE HUMIDITY AHEAD OF A SLOW-MOVING  
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL COMBINE WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO  
UPPER 90S TO CREATE A LARGE AREA OF MAJOR TO EXTREME HEATRISK.  
BUILDING HEAT WILL ALSO BE ON THE RISE ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF  
THE WEST, ESPECIALLY THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, WHERE HIGH  
TEMPERATURES NEARING THE TRIPLE DIGITS WILL THREATEN RECORDS  
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE LOWER DESERT VALLEYS  
OF THE SOUTHWEST, HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 100S TO 110S  
WILL MAKE FOR A SCORCHING WEEKEND WITH LITTLE RELIEF IN SIGHT.  
 
MILLER  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  
 

 
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab HPC Page Main Text Page